$2/$5 NL. MP ($800) open raises to $30. I ($600) call OTB with JJ. Heads up to to the flop.
Flop is Q33. MP bets $100. I dont care about the rest of the hand. I just want opinions on what you think a random person over bets a flop like this with. It seems like AK to me.
Only read I have is that earlier he open raised to $35 with AA. This is the second time hes raised preflop in about 45 mins I have with him.
KK or AA or (extremely unlikely) AQ. He has a hand and doesn't want any chasers. This is why you called on the button, right? Set mining these guys is easy money. Your only read is that the only other time he open raised in the 45 minutes you played with him was with AA and it was a similar size. I'm pretty sure you're toast here and if you're thinking AK, then you're trying to find a reason to call.
No opinion without knowing more about villain. Any possible flush draws also matter, much more likely to see a bet if the board allows flushes, both with draws and made hands. With no other information, I fold.
This is an annoying situation because this will be a worse hand finding out now if they are ahead or not some of the time. Without some read on villain you have no idea how often or what cards are bad or how villain will play turn/river. Just get out of the way now.
At the table, I "try" to think that if I called the flop I am likely to face at least a pot-sized turn bet. What do I do with THAT?? (tip o' the hat to Mr. Curious "trying to find a reason to call")
As he is in mp, I am guessing he came in with Q,Js; K,Qs; or 99+. He figures you probably have no real hand, missed the flop and does not want to give you chance to over pair him on the Turn or River.
Completely V dependent. If he's playing you, then what are you calling this bet with? If he figures you're 3-betting QQ+/AK pf, then your range is toast on this flop. You have to fold everything except AQ and quads. It could be just a pressure bet. What's hero's image at the table?
No real reads. He sat down and on his very first hand he opened to $35, someone made it $100 and he shoved his $500 stack in with AA and doubled up. 45 mins later and he has lost $200 or back. He seems to chase and fold later in the hand but you cant really tell much in 45 mins.
I folded until I could get a better read. H never did that again and I never got into another memorable hand with him. When I left an hour later he was back to even and appeared to be fairly average.
I folded until I could get a better read. H never did that again and I never got into another memorable hand with him. When I left an hour later he was back to even and appeared to be fairly average.
I think that's the right move. I wouldn't be ready to stackoff vs. an unknown with second pair. I'd consider a raise-fold if you were deeper.
Absent any other reads, I'd assume V has a good hand but that he fears getting sucked out on. I'd expect to see KK or a good Q most of the time. AA usually isn't quite as mubsy and I doubt very much this is a cbet with a whiffed hand.
