If we have KQ, what if V has AA, JJ, TT, AJ, AT, JT? Is villain going to hero fold? Probably freaking not. AK yeah it will be hard to get paid off, but you can't be too concerned about that.

Yeah, if you have XR for value, you need XR as bluffs, unless you exploit a villain who is a calling station.

On every board you should assess what the best options for bluffs are. A lot of times a gutshot is going to be a fine bluff candidate. And you're not just bluffing to induce villains to call later. You are bluffing to print money from folds.

Some tips about when to bluff:

1. Bluff often vs people that cbet a lot with garbage. Don't bluff often against people that cbet infrequently who usually have strong hands.

2. Check raise more against small bet sizes and less against large bet sizes.

3. Don't bluff often multiway.

4. Bluff more when you have more value combos and when your opponent has more weak hands in their range.

5. Bluff more when opponents have shown an imbalance towards weakness. If the action goes bet half pot flop, bet 75% turn, bet pot river, most players are going to show up with an incredibly strong range and this is not a great spot to bluff. The more your opponent checks postflop, the more likely a bluff is going to get through.

True, but you get 2 streets of value when you check-call flop and check-raise turn, whereas if you donk lead flop you might get zero streets of value.

Mmmmmmmno. Every player in every position is equally likely to be dealt an ace, regardless of position. Every position has AA and a lot of AX in their raising range.

The LP raising range has more hands than an EP range, and thus AA and AX make up a greater portion of the EP raiser's range, but that doesn't mean it's more likely that the EP raiser has AX than the LP raiser. It just means that the LP raiser can also have a lot of other hands the EP raiser shouldn't.

The advantage of going for the check-raise rather than a donk-lead against an EP raiser vs an LP raiser is just what I said - a donk lead can get more calls from the MP players, and the LP raiser might raise over your donk, whereas if you go for the check-raise against an LP raiser, you're less likely to get calls from those MP players who initially checked to the LP PFR.

If you donk into an EP raiser, and he calls, those MP players are more likely to fold than they'd be if you checked, and he c-bet.

The donk-lead is definitely higher EV when the PFR is in LP, whereas the check-raise is better when the PFR is EP.

Yes, he will probably fold QQ when you defend the BB and then donk-lead on a flop of A62. The line doesn't look that weird. Fishy AF, but not weird.

If he folds QQ, when he might have c-bet, or even if he checked back but would have called a turn bet, donking the flop just loses value.

Are there spots to donk-lead when heads-up? Yes. Is the A62 board one of them, when we have 66? Nope.

Might want to check this out - https://upswingpoker.com/donk-bet-lead-flop-strategy/.

This is great advice. I think I was going more for always getting paid by top pair than sometimes getting paid by 2 pair and sets, but from an EV perspective your strategy makes more sense.

I'm not winning this argument in general but AA and Ax objectively make up a higher portion of EP's range, sorry. Yes, the same aces also raise from LP, but more stuff does not, and since the total distribution of hands is limited, it causes the percentage of aces to go down. Many of the hands that are folded EP like T9s are raised LP

Not sure how you can argue this when your post is about calling off three barrels with second pair against a guy just because he donked.

My KJ blocked KQ, AJ, and JT, so it blocked a lot of his thick value, and had nine outs to improve. V's thickest value combos are hands that could have 3B pre in the SB, making it more possible for him to be betting worse for value or as a bluff, on a very connected board.

QQ on A62 blocks no value, and only has two outs to improve. Your thickest value combos are ace-rag, 66, and 22, hands that would typically just flat call in the BB, making it less possible for you to be betting worse for value or bluffing on a very disconnected board.

That's how I can argue it.

Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

You're definitely not winning the argument.

LP raiser with T9s isn't calling when you donk 66 on A62, but he might c-bet that board, because it favors the PFR's range more than the BB defender's.

Even if AX makes up more of EP raiser's range, he probably isn't calling off 3 streets if he doesn't improve to at least 2P, and he might just let you blast off if he has top set, whereas you might get away from your hand if he 3B's over a check-raise.

When you donk there, you're folding out a lot of hands that might have c-bet if you checked, or called a turn bet if the flop checks through. Donking loses those bets when your opponents fold, and strengthens V's continue range.

Like, in this hand, I'd have c-bet almost my entire range on this flop, but when V donks, I'm folding all my Tx and worse. If he just check-calls flop, and checks turn, I'm likely to barrel turn with a lot of that same range that c-bet. So his donk loses at least one, if not two streets of value from every hand I folded on the flop, and only lets me continue with hands that might be best or might improve to be best.

Donking the flop.with middle set, out of the BB, heads up against an EP raiser or LP raiser, on a board of A62, is losing value compared to check-raising flop or turn.



Sent from my SM-G781U using Tapatalk

Mlark made the good point that it is worth putting in a raise to go for value against his rare two pair and lower sets. However, I do not agree with your second point, that he won't call off 3 streets with just top pair. Sure he will. You called off 3 streets with second pair because the range disadvantage donk bet looked so strange. (And yes, I know you had blockers, but still.)

My only point is that it can occasionally be good to make a very unorthodox play because it looks so suspicious to good players. Which this thread is proof of. If he went check call check raise here you are folding the turn and he gets 2 streets of value but not the 3 he got.

After some thought, I realized that almost all my experience vs. donks is online. I see relatively little of it live. And online it's usually weak, where someone has like a gutshot and they're too scared to commit a big part of their stack by check raising, so they fire three small weird bets.

I have no idea if this is the case live so I need to gather more information.