Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhotang
Trying to find the right outcome.
I can't imagine that we are ahead of both of them.
Why would short stack go all in? If he doesnt have spades, he is more than likely ahead.
Imagine playing from evil villain's side. you limped in m-lp, and then called roughly a pot sized raise from the button for about 25% of your stack after somebody else tagged along. Not a great move for a set miner. If someone is calling here with 55 77 hoping to set mine with a 1.2 SPR, I want to play them all day. If they are just calling with KK because they are scared to play for their monstrous 32bb stack or have some kind of FPS thinking about making more money postflop with their KK than just shoving pre for either a nice $35 pot, or a 3 way all-in where they are probably best, then pretty much same thing -- put this fish at my table any day and twice on sundays.
Honestly, I can't think of any hands with which I would play his line pre with this stack size, it's a clear shove/fold situation, so I think we can clearly mark this guy as a fish, probably loose passive calling station variety. At the very least they are unfamiliar with shortstack play and should be picked on mercilessly when short.
So we don't know for sure what he's playing here, but it's MUBsy thinking to assume he always has you beat when he goes all-in. There's no reason for him not to go for this this probable 3 way all-in, where one big stack may fold out the other with something like top pair good kicker, or a nut flush draw. And we've already determined that he's calling where he should be raising or folding pre, so it's even possible he's calling some nonsense like bottom pair postflop that should run for cover. Chances are he has far more AK, KQ and various AsXs in his range than KK, 55 and 77. If he has K5 or K7 in his range, then he probably also has every single NFD in it and quite probably some second or raggy FDs also.
So many more combos are behind you than ahead of you under expected fishy lines. And under any line where he is well ahead of you here, he is *massively* exploitable. If he shows down any hand that beats you here, his preflop play is terrible, and you've gained some valuable information about a good player to isolate pre when you can.