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Staying Ahead of the Curve Staying Ahead of the Curve

03-03-2011 , 09:45 PM
This is an universal message for all of us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerRon247
I realised something about my game in December. I wasn’t the unluckiest player alive, I just wasn’t good enough anymore. It was a pretty horrible thing to realise, but at the same time an extremely important realisation, something that’s stopped me from crashing and burning, and bustoing my bankroll. Since then I’ve been on a mission to turn things around and get back to winning ways, and it’s working, slowly, but then this isn’t 2004 and there’s no quick answer to making tons of money at this game anymore. It’ll take time and a lot of hard work, but I’m positive I’ll get there.

I figured that I’d use my 4000th post to give something back to the community that’s given me so much, and try to put forward my thoughts on how I think you should go about improving your game.

First, a simple fact: The games are getting harder.

Just like in any competitive arena, the overall standard of the player pool is improving all the time. The one big thing that made poker so profitable for millions of people worldwide may also be the same thing that kills it. The Internet. What started off as a vehicle for bringing the game within the reach of millions of complete amateurs has served to educate the masses to the point where even many recreational players have a grasp of basic strategy. If the fish are getting good, then the serious players, even at the micros, have a level of competence that was unthinkable ten years ago, and they’re getting better all the time.

What does this mean for us? Well it means that if you do not improve at, or ahead of, the pace of improvement of the player pool as a whole, then you will get left behind, simple as that. You may well currently be the best player at your stakes, but if you do not improve, you can guarantee that you won’t hold that position for long. The speed and ease at which knowledge can travel over the internet is scary as we have seen since the Concept of the Week threads started on 2p2. COTW on 3betting goes up, suddenly 10nl reg gets this feeling that his steals are being played back at more and more. COTW on double barreling goes up, 25nl reg can’t work out why his floats aren’t having the same success as they were last week. Top level concepts are filtering down to the lower stakes at an ever increasing rate, and it’s up to us to decide whether to take advantage of this, or to ignore it and let the game pass us by.

So we’ve decided that in order to stay profitable, we have to constantly improve and evolve. Unfortunately it’s easier to understand that we have to improve, than to actually improve. There are so many different ways of going about learning new information. Coaching, reviews, peer sweats, videos etc. I’m going to try to cover the most common ways, but first a little discussion about win rates.

Win rates

As we all know, win rates are generally measured in big blinds (or ptbb which is 2x big blind) per 100 hands. Have you ever actually stopped to think about what this means? I would expect most 2p2’ers to have a win rate of between -1ptbb/100 to +5ptbb/100, which is a tiny margin (an entirely respectable 1ptbb/100 win rate at 100nl translates to 2 cents per hand), and it’s easy to see how a few large errors in each session can seriously affect that win rate. But it’s not just the large errors that have an impact on your win rate. Here’s an exercise for you: Go to your last session and review your last 100 hands. Not just the big pots, not even just the ones where you put money in the pot, check every single one of those last 100 hands. Did you find just one spot where you could have won or saved two big blinds? If so, and I highly suspect that will be the case, that means that one hand was a hit of 1ptbb/100 to your win rate over that sample of 100 hands. Now extrapolate that to each sample of 100 consecutive hands in your database... do you see what I’m getting at? With the thin margins that we’re working with, every single hand counts, every single big blind you put into the pot (or fail to put into the pot) counts. Most of the hands I see posted on the forum are turn or river spots in inflated pots. People only tend to focus on the big hands, and while I’m not disputing that making mistakes in large pots will have a big effect on your win rate, as I have just shown, it’s vital that you concentrate on every hand, not just the huge pots. It’s very common for a losing player to blame his losses on those big pots that he loses every session to suckouts and coolers, but the truth is that everybody suffers those suckouts and coolers. For the losing player however, those big pots tend to divert attention away from the smaller, much more standard spots. Are you calling too liberally out of position? Are you cbetting too much on the flop? Are you giving up to a flop cbet too easily? I chat to a wide range of other players on a daily basis, and like most we swap hand histories for review, but I can’t remember the last time that someone sent me a hh with the question “do I cbet this?” or “do I double barrel here?”. It’s nearly always a tough turn spot where he’s been raised, or a where he’s facing a third barrel on the river. While each of these kind of situations only contribute a small amount to your win rate each time, they are much more common than the 200bb pots, to the point where I would say that they are equally, if not more, important to concentrate on when reviewing your play and looking for spots to improve.

How to improve

With that out of the way, it’s time to start discussing how we actually go about improving our game. There are so many resources out there, where do we start? First of all, I think you need to be playing with the correct attitude. Most of us play with the intention of making money. I believe this is the wrong attitude. I think that if you play with the intention of making money, you lose sight of where the money actually comes from, which is by playing better than your opponents. I believe that you should instead take the attitude that you’re playing with the intention of improving your game, and you see the money as a side-effect of this. Due to the variable nature of results in poker, you cannot look at a session where you made 5 bi’s and tell yourself that you played well because of the results. In the same way you can’t look at a losing session and decide that you played badly because you lost. I think most people reading this will know that, but it still doesn’t stop us taking our short term results to heart. Once you get over this barrier and start to measure your success by how well you’ve played, and how much you’ve learned, then the money will take care of itself (after about 100k hands of course).

What you can do on your own

Ignoring all outside resources, and concentrating on only your own play, having the “play to learn” rather than “play to earn” attitude means several things, amongst others:

Question:
So you made a continuation bet and it didn’t work... just move on to the next hand.... No! Why did it not work? Was it a bad texture to cbet? Was it against someone that calls too much? What was your plan for getting called? Every time you ask yourself these questions after making a play (whether it worked or not), you’re working on your knowledge. Every time you just move onto the next hand and forget about that cbet that didn’t work, you’re at best missing out on a learning opportunity, and at worst reinforcing a bad habit that will continue to lose you money.

Anticipate: Once you’ve got into the habit of questioning your plays after you’ve made them, you can start to anticipate the questions that you will be asking yourself. You might find that you’re constantly saying to yourself “were there REALLY enough bluffs in his range for me to call there?” when you’ve made incorrect calls. Instead of asking that question after the hand, start thinking BEFORE the hand “if I call this, is it going to be ANOTHER one of those calls where I realise he isn’t bluffing enough for me to call?”
Commentate: Many players find that talking to themselves while they’re playing, doing a running commentary of their thought process, helps to rationalise everything they’re doing. Rather than just fire that second barrel, say “I’m firing this second barrel because..........”. Talking aloud is often more effective than running the commentary internally.

Review: Many people review their sessions, but do they really review effectively? As I was talking about earlier, most people just go over a selection of big pots where they got in tough spots, but try running some filters and check the more standard spots. How did your cbets fare? If they didn’t do too well, then why? Did you think you responded well to being 3bet that session, and if so, what did you well? Most importantly, try to take at least one thing away from each session review in the form of one thing that you have learnt. If you learn one thing after every session, be it about your game, an opponent’s game, or about something else all together, all these things can’t help but add up and make you a better player.

External influences

Those are the kind of things that we can work on without even looking at anything outside of our immediate environment, but as we know, there are many other places we can look at to get help with our game and I’m going to discuss those now.

Forums: I’ll start off with the most basic and one everybody reading this will already participate in. Poker forums are simply an awesome way to improve your game, for free, but only if you use them correctly. If it weren’t for 2p2, I would still be depositing $50 every few weeks and playing with at least half my bankroll on the table at any one time. 2p2 is not the only forum though. There are dozens, if not hundreds of different forums around the net. If you think 2p2 isn’t your ideal environment to participate in, have a look around at what else is available. There are foreign language forums, forums attached to coaching sites, forums run by players (sometimes even at your stakes), private forums, and many others. There is however a lot of quality information right here on 2p2. The information in the COTW threads could have been compiled and sold as a cutting edge book if they had not been published in this forum for free. Many people have written milestone posts such as this one, with in depth analysis of certain concepts and the vast majority of these posts are pure gold. They usually take a bit of detective work to dig up from the past, but are well worth it.
This is all before we get on to the bulk of what makes up the forums, hand review posts. These are the bread and butter of any forum, but it takes a bit of work to get the best out of them. First of all you have to sift through the bad advice and the stupid levelling posts. You can just look at the hands, analyse them yourself and read the responses, but I think there is much more to be had from participating in strategy posts by getting involved in the discussion yourself. I’m a firm believer that if you actually write down your response in the thread rather than just think it to yourself. For a start you have to really think about what you’re saying and decide whether it makes sense or not, and then write it out in plain English so that it is comprehensible to others. This really helps to get your thoughts in order and makes the information you’re thinking of more memorable – you remember the reply you made to that KK hand yesterday, but can you remember what you thought about the 78s hand you skimmed through earlier? The second thing about participating in this way is that it is impossible for your thoughts do be disputed if you do not put them across to others. None of us are 100% right about everything, and one of the best ways to learn is to make mistakes. There is no shame in posting a reply to a hand and having it torn apart by another poster. If you had just kept that thought to yourself, you would continue to think the same way, but by having your opinions disputed, you continue to learn. A note of caution though, that I think we all know but has to be said anyway – not everything you read is correct or good advice. For example, if you put your thoughts down in reply to a hand and have another poster rip your analysis apart and tell you all the things you have said are wrong, don’t just blindly agree and change your opinion on the subject. Read the replies, does what he has said make sense? Do other posters agree with him or with you? I’ve had people say to me that they don’t like hand discussion threads, but the way I see it, thinking about, and discussing, how to play in a range of different spots several times every day cannot help but improve your game, or at the very least maintain it.

In summary – participate, do not be afraid to make mistakes, but question everything.

Peers: This is the 2nd totally free resource that we have at our disposal. Everybody should have as many poker buddies as possible. Make friends with people in the forums, find likeminded people who are playing similar stakes and work together to improve both your games. Working with a buddy is often similar to using the forums, you post a hand ---> you receive feedback ---> your buddy posts a hand ---> you give feedback. The advantage of doing this with a buddy is that you can receive instant advice, often while playing you can ask a buddy about a hand you just played while it is fresh in your mind. You can organise sweat sessions, hand review sessions, even make a group chat room made up of any number of your buddies. I’m personally in contact with a number of players from different stakes pretty much all the time that I’m online and playing and I believe that talking to all these people is the single most effective day-to-day thing that you can do for your game.

Tools: There is a lot of poker related software around that can help with your game. Some of it you have to pay for and some of it free. Luckily for us, probably the most helpful and important program is free and that is PokerStove. I won’t go into what it does because I’m sure we’re all familiar with it, but I will say that just messing around with stove for half an hour can really help you get a grasp of how to deal with different situations. Use it when reviewing a hand to estimate your equity and find whether you think you made the right call, but don’t stop there. Change a board card, change your hand, change your opponent’s stats (and therefore range). I won’t go into this anymore, as I think a whole thread could be written about using Stove. Most of us are aware of, and use, PokerStove, but a lot of people are unaware of other tools that are available. There are fold equity calculators, random flop generators, decision tree EV calculators and many more. Have a search around and see what you can find, decide what you think could be useful, and most importantly, use these things. There are there to help you, and help you they can, but only if you put the effort in to use them well.

Videos and books: I’m not going to talk too much about books and videos as they’re both fairly self explanatory. I think we all know how to read a book, but just be aware that the ratio of terrible poker books to good poker books is pretty high, so before you invest, read some reviews and make sure that the book you are buying is applicable to your game. As with using forums, you have to be critical while reading, question everything that you read and use the book to form your own theories about how the ideas you’re reading will translate into your game specifically rather than just taking on blindly everything that the author says. E-books are becoming much more popular these days, with the advantage that they are generally packed with the most up-to-date cutting edge material, written by players that are still at the top of their game. The disadvantage is that they are generally very expensive as the information included can be very valuable if used correctly. I know it’s pretty naive to believe that everyone that owns an e-book has actually paid for it, but I would just like to take this opportunity to ask you to think about how much time, effort and dedication that author has put into writing that book before you make a decision about whether you are going to buy or “acquire”.

Training videos are an extremely useful resource if used properly. You can get a chance to see a fully accomplished player doing what he does at the tables, or step into the classroom with an experienced tutor as he explains a vital concept to you. There are a bunch of video sites these days with videos on everything poker related, including off-the-table concepts, psychology and mindset issues as well as the traditional strategy videos. Have a look around to see which site(s) you think will suit you best, try out some of the free sample videos which most sites offer, try to find out which coaches you relate to best. Most importantly, once you’ve decided to sign up and pay your subscription fee, use the site. This may sound obvious, but I’m guilty of paying a certain site in the region of $300 over the time I’ve been subscribed, and have probably only watched ~10 videos. It can be debated that even just those 10 vids could be worth $300 to me so I haven’t really lost out, but I really could have got so much more value for my money.

Coaching: Coaching is probably the most contentious issue with regards to improving your game. Some people are believers that coaching is at best over-priced and an inefficient way to invest your money. Others cite coaching as the most important aspect of their development. I am personally somewhere in between these two opinions. If you stumble blindly into a coaching agreement with a guy you don’t know much about, hand over a ton of cash and then sit through some hastily organised sessions then it doesn’t take a genius to realise you’re not going to get maximum effect from the experience. The most important thing about taking on a coach is to research them first. “Poker coach” is not a protected term, anybody can call themselves a coach and get away with it. There are a lot of good coaches out there, however I think that for every good coach, there is at least one bad one. Here is a list of things I think you should look for when researching a coach:

References: See what other people are saying about your intended coach. Is there a long list of people queuing up to give him a glowing reference, backed up with evidence of how he’s improved their game? Talk to your buddies that play higher (or same stakes, but are better) than you. Have they used a coach, was he worth it? Personal references from somebody you know are so much more valuable than random forum posters.

Results: This is one of the more contentious issues where coaching is concerned. There are different views on this, but personally I would not want to hire a coach that is not capable of crushing the level he is teaching. This has to be backed up by a good sample of results, not just a 50k hand graph from the last 3 weeks where they went on a heater. If a coach was hesitant about providing me with evidence of his results then I would be extremely suspicious unless there was a very good reason. As already mentioned, this game is evolving at an incredible pace and a coach that is not constantly playing and adapting to the changing environment of the stakes he is coaching is unlikely to be able to teach effectively.

Professionalism: Poker coaches are generally relatively highly paid for their services. If I’m paying $100/hr for a service, I expect it to be extremely professionally presented. This may sound nitty, but if I make an enquiry about coaching and get a poorly worded reply back that looks like he’s written it in 10 seconds while playing 24 tables then that would really put me off from continuing further. If he can’t put any effort at all into writing a simple reply to someone that is enquiring about giving him some business, what kind of effort will he put into his coaching sessions? Alternatively if I get a reply that has been carefully put together, is personalised and feels like even a small amount of effort has gone into it, then I’m going to be much more inclined to believe that this guy will also be putting effort into his coaching. Many coaches offer a money-back guarantee after the first session and I believe that this is a good indicator of someone that is confident in their skills.

So you’ve decided on your coach and you’re going to start some sessions with him. What are the main things to consider? Well first of all I believe that you will get the most out of your coach if you book a block of sessions and try to develop a more long-term relationship with your coach rather than just having one or two sessions. There is no quick-fix in poker, and although a couple of sessions are probably just about long enough to fix a few leaks, it’s also just about long enough for your coach to get an idea of your game and really start helping you. A coach is going to be much more help for you once he has got a grasp of where your problems lie and what your strengths and weaknesses are.

Try to have a plan for your sessions. I have worked with coaches where at the start of each session they will just say to me “what do you want to do today?”. I feel it works much better if you have a coach that plans the sessions for you. A good coach should know what areas you need to work on and have something prepared rather than relying on you to dictate the session. A coach who charges you $60/hr or whatever to simply sweat you once a week is, imo, not fulfilling his role.

One final thing I want to say with regards to coaching may seem obvious, but is often not. The act of having someone coach you does not make you a better player. Listening to the coach, absorbing the lessons, making notes, applying the strategies to your game, asking questions wherever possible and basically immersing yourself in the session. These are the things that will eventually make you a better player.

Final Thoughts

There’s no longer free money in this game. We’ve come a long way from “flop set, take money” and the game is evolving all the time. This means it takes time, effort and dedication to improve yourself enough to keep ahead of the curve. As you improve, remember that everyone else is improving too. That new strategy you learnt today may be old news next month, but that doesn’t mean learning it has been useless. Find out why it’s not working any more, how people exploiting it. For every strategy there is a counter strategy, and for every counter, there is a counter. I’m sure at some point in the future there’ll be some kind of GTO theory that covers 100bb full-ring poker, but we’re far from that point now and no matter how hard the games seem, they are still going to be beatable for a long while yet.
Everything I’ve written about so far is the technical details of how to go about improving things, but none of it will work if you don’t have the right mindset. First of all I think you have to actually enjoy playing the game and enjoy learning about it. I see so many people that moan about how they get bored playing long sessions, about how tilted they get when things don’t go their way and how they find reading about the game boring. These people don’t usually last too long. The ones that really make it and are around for the long-run are the ones that truly have a passion for the game. This can’t be created, you either have it or you don’t. Trying to force yourself to apply yourself to something you don’t enjoy is never going to have a great outcome. Love the game and work hard. It’s not supposed to be easy, but you’ll never get anywhere if you just see the game as one long grind.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-03-2011 , 10:15 PM
That's a great post. Everything he goes over is so true.
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03-03-2011 , 10:38 PM
As pertains to live poker, I don't see any evidence that the games are getting tougher within the last few years. But possibly it's just where I play (Wisconsin). It's kinda always the same old mix and type of players, even tho the faces/names change.

Studying and not getting stale in our play is great tho. These forums definitely helped my game.
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03-03-2011 , 10:43 PM
this is true for the internet, but not 1/2 - 2/5 live. I see the same regs playing in the same games from over a year ago and they haven't gotten any better. They still have the same leaks
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-03-2011 , 10:49 PM
I'll disagree with live hasn't changed, at least where I'm playing. You see way more players making standard (3-4BB) raises than you used to see. It is a lot harder to get people to stack off with TP. I don't think it is moving as fast as on-line, but I think it is moving. However, I'm not saying the games are unbeatable either.
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03-03-2011 , 10:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thingmaker
this is true for the internet, but not 1/2 - 2/5 live. I see the same regs playing in the same games from over a year ago and they haven't gotten any better. They still have the same leaks
But when they show up with AA in a limp pot we often lose money. I admit regs are bad they never raise AA from early. But when the poker gods give them a set OTT we lose money. I always try to snap them in position with Ax Kx or suited connectors or one gappers. But have not caught anyone with AA or KK in a limp pot. I always see the regs lose there money to the other players. Which really tilts me, I see a old lady sit down about 70 years old. Plays no limit like limit plays everyhand. Gets lucky and flops a baby flush in position and she flopped a straight J7s vs 2 regs who limped with AA and KK.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-03-2011 , 11:43 PM
Solid poast.

Nothing like getting one's ass handed to oneself on 2+2 to help with ones game.

I still feel like I'm driving in fog half the time if truth be told but 2+2 helps to lift the fog a bit IYKWIM.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:47 AM
live is harder then before without a doubt. you 3bet now people dont snap you off with A7.

this is a great post. i remember before this syub forum i used to just lurk and read mainly. i did this too see what the consensus was and tried to exploit that. now i post here and its helped me a lot.

sometimes before i post something i think this is stupid, it doesnt sound like what everyone else is gonna say but i think im just cheating myself and post it anyways. sometimes it works, sometimes im the only one with a certain line and sometimes i get semi flamed (i think min raising is very useful in LLSNL ) in the end ill be better for it.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MK7749
live is harder then before without a doubt. you 3bet now people dont snap you off with A7.

this is a great post. i remember before this syub forum i used to just lurk and read mainly. i did this too see what the consensus was and tried to exploit that. now i post here and its helped me a lot.

sometimes before i post something i think this is stupid, it doesnt sound like what everyone else is gonna say but i think im just cheating myself and post it anyways. sometimes it works, sometimes im the only one with a certain line and sometimes i get semi flamed (i think min raising is very useful in LLSNL ) in the end ill be better for it.
How is minraising useful? I never do it unless I have a draw. Or min raise the button if folded to me. Ill do that If I have like 76s.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 02:13 AM
certainly games everywhere are getting harder, live and online. i think it would be more useful to think about how much harder they are getting (measured in terms of the impact on your winrate) than whether or not they are. live poker is less profitable than it used to be. but that doesn't change much if you can still make $25/hour playing 2/5.
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03-04-2011 , 10:29 AM
I like the post. Ron is a very intelligent man. Actually, I will save this post in my database of poker articles and smart people posts and I suspect it will be very close to the top of my list besides the Baluga Theorem and some of Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky's material. Extremely valuable material. Ron, you are the man!

But, I have to disagree with your claim, Ron, that the games are harder than before. For as far as I remember the games are always good and we have the same players coming into the game over and over but with different faces and personalities. I honestly don't see any difference between poker fives years ago and today. My win rate is the same as alway.

Che,

Last edited by always_tilting; 03-04-2011 at 10:37 AM.
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03-04-2011 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks
How is minraising useful? I never do it unless I have a draw. Or min raise the button if folded to me. Ill do that If I have like 76s.
hahah i never minraise PF. i guess when its obvious Vil is a bad by the book player, a min raise on a scary board is just as good as any raise.
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03-04-2011 , 11:42 AM
Just a recommendation, don't do a running commentary out loud if you're playing live.
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03-04-2011 , 12:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I'll disagree with live hasn't changed, at least where I'm playing. You see way more players making standard (3-4BB) raises than you used to see. It is a lot harder to get people to stack off with TP. I don't think it is moving as fast as on-line, but I think it is moving. However, I'm not saying the games are unbeatable either.

i will throw in that i say the games will be evolving (getting tuffer) at an accelerated pace. By that i mean 5 yrs. from now will be maybe same increase in toughness as maybe 2 years online. And that should be a crippling fact if it happens to be accurate (which i think so). Here is why i think that. it only takes 2 - 3 superb players at live tables to just ruin the winrate for the avg daily reg in the game. We dont that much of it yet, however the 3 betting, barreling, squeezing etc. has already drifted into live poker pretty quickly which leaves most routine grinders in a pickle since they do not handle these spots too well.

Now let a couple of tremendous players who ARE able to exploit all the live areas well, and the once local grinder can either bone up in skill, or just drift off and attempt to find a softer game. What usually happens, (and im seeing it already), is that normal everyday grinders are either moving down in limit or slipping off from say Bellagio to the MGM (where the games dont run everyday, but are better when they do run). As you can see from that, the local grinder becomes like a rat running around town trying to find an easy morsel of cheese, while the studious dedicated NL player just drops in daily at Bellagio and sits down with the positive thought of taking on all comers.

If there are 2 superb players and 1 above avg player in the game, then you better be one of those three. If not, you cannot win unless you only play when several superfish are in the game. It has not come the time that there are that many really good players in the game, but that time is coming and much faster than you may think. Online players will be slipping over to live all the time. Many will inevitably adjust properly and then it will be curtains for a huge portion of the current live player grinder ......... who doesnt stay ahead of the curve.

So, what can you do?

1- Read THE MAKING OF AN EXPERT by K.Anders Ericsson
(and figure out how to make it pertain to poker)

2- Study the ebooks LTBR and actually better yet EASY GAME.

3- The best of all, get a good coach who can not only teach you what your
real goal is in the various hand types that come down, but also teach you
how to analyze your own hands and therefore drill down your own play on
a daily basis so that you can learn a little bit every single day. Just like
quitting smoking, you do it one day at a time.

Sot the bottom line is this. And i say this cause i already see most live grinding players slowly being left behind. If you stop and say to yourself, hmmm, im doing very little to get better on a daily basis (other than posting hands here etc), then sadly i say that you are basically standing still while a TON of players are studying HARD to excel at this game. Oh yeah, they maynot have arrived at your casino yet etc, but trust me, in the next few years if you are not studying to stay ahead of the curve, whatever winrate you have now will be dissipating fast.



Note: Does anyone know what therapist AT (Che) goes to for writing such long winded posts? I want the therapists number.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by always_tilting
I like the post. Ron is a very intelligent man. Actually, I will save this post in my database of poker articles and smart people posts and I suspect it will be very close to the top of my list besides the Baluga Theorem and some of Mason Malmuth and David Sklansky's material. Extremely valuable material. Ron, you are the man!
Thank you very much!

Quote:
But, I have to disagree with your claim, Ron, that the games are harder than before. For as far as I remember the games are always good and we have the same players coming into the game over and over but with different faces and personalities. I honestly don't see any difference between poker fives years ago and today. My win rate is the same as alway.

Che,
My post was intended mainly for online play, which is undoubtably getting harder year on year, if not month on month. I feel like I know way more about the game than I did just a year ago, yet I've actually regressed with regards to money being earned. The freedom of information and the speed at which it travels on the internet is making this so. I've lost count of the number of regs that I've searched for and their once nice straight upwards line has gone horizontal and stayed there over the last six months or so.

I only play a small amount of live poker, and I don't really have much experience of how it has altered, but my inclination would be to believe that it is generally improving but nowhere near as fast as online. Many of the "serious" live recreational players will also be playing online and surfing forums or reading strategy articles, and I'm sure they'll be picking up bits of information here and there that they otherwise wouldn't have say ten years ago. As I said in my OP, if the fish are getting better, then you can be damn sure that the regs are too. I'm even sure that in it's own small way, this subforum will have improved the standard of games around the world.

Freely available information ----> increased knowledge for all
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:36 PM
I've always wondered what the ceiling was going to be? There has to be a point where you can only be so good and there is nothing else to learn. Are we (poker community) getting close to that point? Are we there yet? How long before the majority of us (poker community) are there? Once the majority is there I think poker will no longer become profitable, rather regs and tourists passing money back and forth. The internet killed the game IMO. Too much info out there. It's the reason people are publishing books and offering coaching services. They need to make as much money as they can before it's all over.

Truly it's one of the parts (the information) of the game that has depressed me. When the ceiling is hit its all over. WP by the guys who took advanatge of the poker boom and started online companies, wrote books, and coached. They knew well in advanced it would come to a halt and that the next level of the game was not playing the game, but exploiting the players of the game with products and marketing.

/semi derail...

@ANL... Che is my best poker friend bro... or w/e he said in that post... back off.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AcePlayerDeluxe
I've always wondered what the ceiling was going to be? There has to be a point where you can only be so good and there is nothing else to learn. Are we (poker community) getting close to that point? Are we there yet? How long before the majority of us (poker community) are there? Once the majority is there I think poker will no longer become profitable, rather regs and tourists passing money back and forth. The internet killed the game IMO. Too much info out there. It's the reason people are publishing books and offering coaching services. They need to make as much money as they can before it's all over.

Truly it's one of the parts (the information) of the game that has depressed me. When the ceiling is hit its all over. WP by the guys who took advanatge of the poker boom and started online companies, wrote books, and coached. They knew well in advanced it would come to a halt and that the next level of the game was not playing the game, but exploiting the players of the game with products and marketing.

/semi derail...

@ANL... Che is my best poker friend bro... or w/e he said in that post... back off.



APD I wouldnt get too awful worried about never finding profit IF you are learning etc. REason? When Thorps BET THE DEALER came out showing how card counting could gain the edge in Blackjack, the casinos ALL freaked that the game of blackjack would be driven into the ground and lost forever. The exact opposite happened.

Online and TV poker has created more poker players in the U today than every before. MOST of them will never ever get good enough to hurt you in any way. It just means you have to learn daily to stay up with the tuffer guys, and earn from the fish like everyone else. But the time of complacency in poker has come and gone.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
APD I wouldnt get too awful worried about never finding profit IF you are learning etc. REason? When Thorps BET THE DEALER came out showing how card counting could gain the edge in Blackjack, the casinos ALL freaked that the game of blackjack would be driven into the ground and lost forever. The exact opposite happened.

Online and TV poker has created more poker players in the U today than every before. MOST of them will never ever get good enough to hurt you in any way. It just means you have to learn daily to stay up with the tuffer guys, and earn from the fish like everyone else. But the time of complacency in poker has come and gone.
I just think there will be a ceiling. The "fish" will be the guys who have read Harrington, Super System, etc while the great players will be the guys who have read Easy Game and w/e other high level thinking book is out there (or will come out). Now the high level thinker will be able to exploit, to a point, the "fish" but it won't be as easy. Its basically what Ron already stated. I am going further with the point that eventually the majority of the players will be the Easy Game guys rather than the Harrington guys. I could be wrong. It's just a theory I have. I think the top pro's were smart to market themselves. They knew long before us that the game was going to get harder and decided that sitting at home and putting their name on a product was going to be more profitable then grinding against the new age players... But of course it could just be that they got lazy and decided working on their game was boring.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:10 PM
I like what it said about posting hands, and what one expects from doing so.
I've been thinking of this same topic lately;
sometimes it seems ppl just want to know what was right or wrong in a very linear way.
The problem is that this kind of rigid style of 'learning' won't really help you at the table.
You memorized what the right move was is a certain spot, but the thing is, that spot won't ever happen again; there are too many factors and variables; each hand is so individual and villian/ game specific, that you can't rely on rigid thinking.
You have to learn how to think for yourself, and you do that by observing how others think in different situations, and in understanding thr principles behind their thought processes.
When you consider this, arguing who is right or wrong in a thread is meaningless.
The focus should be on the thought processes the posters have,
whether right or wrong, there is always something to be learned.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:12 PM
I kinda both agree and disagree with the OP.

I agree that the games will probably only be getting tougher in the future. Look at a large percentage of the players that make up the games now; older players (even older than me!) / totally uneducated players that haven't read a poker book in their life or noodled around on an on-line forum. Skip forward 20 years. Those older guys at the table will be us, the ones that grew up with a wealth of poker knowledge at our fingertips. I mean, ya, we won't all be great or fantastic, but we'll be geniuses when compared to our opponents of today.

What I don't agree with is that by staying ahead of the curve, learning advanced concepts, etc. that we'll still be able to beat this game even though the opponents will be much better. We won't. This game (and rake) is only beatable if we're playing some truly very poor opponents. And the learning curve to turn those truly poor opponents into mediocre/meh opponents is incredibly quick (hmmm, maybe I shouldn't be calling a 3bet with Q2o, etc.). If the game evolves to a point where the really poor opponents / mediocre opponents that make up the majority or our table now learn just enough to become "average" opponents, no amount of "staying ahead of the curve" will make this game beatable long term. IMO.

GtheskyisfallingG
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AintNoLimit
APD I wouldnt get too awful worried about never finding profit IF you are learning etc. REason? When Thorps BET THE DEALER came out showing how card counting could gain the edge in Blackjack, the casinos ALL freaked that the game of blackjack would be driven into the ground and lost forever. The exact opposite happened.
But the casinos were forced to change the game so it became even less beatable (worse blackjack payout odds, multiple deck shoes or quick reshuffling to help negate the affect of counting, higher minimum bets to prevent lowrolled players from sizing bets correctly, side prop games for the suckers, etc.).

All the extra learning we do will be moot if the fish improve their games (which they can do very quicky if they expended just an ounce of effort, and that knowledge is so much more easier to access today than in the past). No one is going to be able to win long term at a raked table full of okish regulars.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:47 PM
When we acknowledge that the games are getting harder, subconsciously we are saying that we aren't as good as we used to be in respect to the current game.

So, if you have a pretty big poker ego, it will blind you from admitting that you aren't as good as you used to be....

Ego will enable us to 'ignore' those coolers and not count them towards our winrate because, well, villain just got lucky right?

Ego will prevent us from keeping accurate records and just rely on our awesome memories becuase we are the only humans on the planet with perfect recall.

Now, are there still fish and droolers coming in droves to the table? Sure, absolutely. However, the percentage of knowledgeable players is still increasing (albeit slower live than online).

It only takes 1 or 2 knowledgeable players at the table to seriously impact your winrate.

Anyways, if you honestly think the game isn't getting harder, then your ego is simply blinding you.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
What I don't agree with is that by staying ahead of the curve, learning advanced concepts, etc. that we'll still be able to beat this game even though the opponents will be much better. We won't. This game (and rake) is only beatable if we're playing some truly very poor opponents. And the learning curve to turn those truly poor opponents into mediocre/meh opponents is incredibly quick (hmmm, maybe I shouldn't be calling a 3bet with Q2o, etc.). If the game evolves to a point where the really poor opponents / mediocre opponents that make up the majority or our table now learn just enough to become "average" opponents, no amount of "staying ahead of the curve" will make this game beatable long term. IMO.
The argument against this is that there are people out there still beating high-stakes games. While there may be some fish in these games, the majority of players are highly skilled professionals, yet some players are still beating these games well. Even the small stakes online (100nl and 200nl) are filled with highly talented players who have devoted a lot of time and effort to their games, yet there are still plenty of people who win well in these games.

The advantage of online play though is that even with a tiny edge, playing 1000-1500 hands/hr magnifies that edge to still give a good hourly. If lives games improve to the point you're suggesting, and you end up having that same tiny edge, then 30-40 hands/hr might not be enough to make that edge significant enough to give you a decent hourly.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 01:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris
Anyways, if you honestly think the game isn't getting harder, then your ego is simply blinding you.
Yes! Honesty and realism are your friend. I know it's a cliche, but if you lie to yourself about your performance, you're only hurting yourself. No-one else cares.
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote
03-04-2011 , 02:07 PM
I think too many of you are looking at this from a low stakes point of view. You view your edge as being technical. You can range better than your opponent, you understand pot odds, you can bet size properly etc. At low stakes, so many people make gross technical mistakes that it can remain your edge.

However at high stakes, people aren't making many technical mistakes and if they are, they are mostly minor. Occasionally a whale will show up, but the either they'll be skinned or they'll pay the expensive lessons and get good.

The next frontier for advantage is going to be adjusting faster than your opponents. Phil Ivey isn't considered the best poker player on the planet because of his technical skills (although they are excellent, I'm sure). It is that he adjusts to his opponents' tendencies faster than anyone else.

From an on-line point of view, suppose I had two speeds of play. One was 8/6 and the other 24/20. If I balanced them, I'd look on a HUD like I'm playing 16/13 poker. However, if you based your play on that, your ranges would be off all the time. Any time you can't put me on the right range but I can put you on the right range, I win.

Think about the last line in this old commercial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFByZfw064M
Staying Ahead of the Curve Quote

      
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