Game is 1/3NL and i'm brand new to the table.

100BB effective as i'm in for $300 and most people cover - a few short stacks but not really an issue as they end up folding.

I'm in the CO and my 3rd hand I get AK

4 limps to me and I make it $25

4 people call - meh

Flop is a dream 68K

Pot is $125 and lady with around $700 leads out $100

Action folds to me and i'm not folding. I call as I think it keeps her range the widest and i'm not worried about too many cards that will ruin my hand and i'm behind 2 pairs/sets/and flushs plus I have position.

Turn is another 8 =( and she jams. I call but not happy about it

Any one fold turn here thinking she can only have flushs and boats at this point? I mean does she ever have anything worse than a full house or flush here?

what is the read on the lady? is she a nit who would never jam w/o a FH?

I stack off here, the 8 doesn't hurt us as the action doesn't tell me she's called PF and has donked with an 8. Her action screams "I have a K and want the Ad to fold!". 6's full almost never takes this strong of a line especially now she's filled up. Call, wp.

When action gets to you, are there any more players left to act?

If not, I would shove flop.

Yes.

I really don't see her jamming after filling up on this turn here,( definitely possible but feels unlikely). So if we take all FHs out of her range, we are looking at small flushes which we are 25 % against here ott.. And a ton of hands that we are completely crushing like KJxd.
Even with some FH's in her range this feels like a call.

yes im not folding here

I have no reads yet as it's the 3rd hand i've played.

I have a hard time believing she is a nit since she played 2 out of 3 hands. She also limp called and than lead out 80% pot which is meh

1 player left to act after me - I think shoving and calling flop doesn't really change much except I will fold out her bluffs which I don't see many in her range.

Yeah, her range has small flushes and weaker kings with a diamond redraw (qd, jd) in it. You'll run into the occasional boat, but the pot is now laying 2.5-to-1. This is a call at that price.

The answer to this lies in the range for the $100 bet.

My opinion, its a monster so play accordingly. When it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck....its prolly a duck.

Results?

On the turn we have to call $175 to win $500. (2.86 to 1)

Against a flopped flush with no straight flush draw we are 25% to win (3 to 1). So I call because I think there will be enough pair + flush draw type of hands to make me +EV.

Obviously if villain flopped a set and filled up on the turn we should, but I think this is a small portion of villain's range here. The majority of the range is flopped flushes and combo draws IMO.

Shove flop because you would if you just had the bare Ad and that's what they will assume you have. I'm definitely not folding and you could be freerolling her.

Because you have 175 behind, it is actually slightly - EV to call if she has a flush. Clearly you're drawing nearly dead to a FH. The only hand you now beat that you didn't before is K6.

Third hand, I'm not thinking someone is stacking off with two pair or worse on this board. Instead of being standard to stack off, it is standard to fold.

It's barely -EV if she has a flush. You always have to put 10% in range for WTF? hands so if the range is:

90% flush
10% WTF?

We are +EV with a call. I'll call even if I guess I'm negative $5 or $10 EV just to see what my opponent has.

Another thing everyone is ignoring is that the villain donk-bet the flop for $100 into a $125 pot. Most villain's check their flopped flushes and sets and donk-bet their combo draws.

Sure if we ignore the possibility of sets. One good rule of thumb that Split, the mod of the Micro FR forum stated is that if a decision is close, use as a deciding factor what you are more likely to be off on in ranges. If you think a random woman LLSNL player is more likely to be shoving more often with draws or weak hands on the turn than 10%, that's fine.

I called and river was a 3 and she flipped over 66. I was drawing pretty thin. I needed a K or an 8 to river.



I figured my hand was too good to fold so I'm not too mad. I got my flush and lost lol. I'm impartial about how she played her hand. I don't mind her donking but I really think she is gonna get too many folds and no one is really gonna call with much worse unless they have a hand exactly like what I have.

The lady ran extremely well and later on that night I heard from other players that she is a pretty big losing player and was just on a heater tonight. I ended up winning my stack back +$150 that night so that was cool. Just sucks to lose a buy in your 3rd hand LOL

it all depends - i've seen it all. I've seen a woman shove into a dead side pot (ON THE RIVER) and than showed J high while the guy who was gonna win the main pot had middle pair and she got him to fold for no reason. The guy who was all in showed Q high and won for no reason LOL.

The whole table asked what she was trying to accomplish and she shrugged - played like 5 more hands and racked up and left the table.

I don't see what that story has to do with anything.

Venice said it was a fold against Villain's "likely range". You can probably call with almost any hand if you're calling against "unlikely ranges".

I probably would've folded. Unlikely she plays KxQd so hard, and that's really the only hand we beat. Hate to put my whole buyin in being pretty sure I'm behind without reads.

With 100 bb this is a standard stack off.

Standard stackoff with 100 BB stacks and the SPR we are left with on this flop.

Its extremely few villains even in low stakes no limit who has such a nitty bet range in this spot for us that a fold would be correct.

Deeper stacks it becomes alot more complicated of course.

I shove flop, but as played this might be a fold.

Does that make sense?

I guess I'm a huge nit because I'm folding OTT.

lol@ others expecting lady to have KJ, KQ type hands and combo draws betting $100 bet OTF.. it is either a set or baby flush here almost 100% of the time scared to give any free cards