I'm wondering how often people try squeeze plays in general and what the factors they consider are.

V1 ($300) - New player. 25 year old Hispanic who doesn't speak good English.
V2 ($400) - 60 y/o Middle Eastern reg. The nittiest of nits (pre and post).
V3 ($400) - 30 y/o TAG. Very good thinking aggressive player. 25% PFR. Triple barrels with position very frequently when he's the pre-flop raiser.
V4 ($400) - Face up tight, thinking 60 year old white reg. I'm not sure if he has a 3-betting range. Respects hero's bets to the point he'll fold very strong hands.
V5 ($200) - Loose player who has lost a couple of big pots without showing.
Hero ($300) - Hasn't played many pots. Only hand shown was a double-barrelled flush draw with a binked overcard on the river that mega-tilted V6 (not in hand).

A few awkward things happened before hero's action:
1. A player flashed A♣️ on his discard. This was seen by V3 and he told the dealer who flipped the card face up.
2. The dealer tried to burn and turn before hero acted. Dealer told hero that he called and had to count the pot to convince himself otherwise.


The hand:
V1 Straddles UTG for $5
V2 calls
V3 raises to $20
V4 calls $20
V5 calls $20 from the CO
So, $70 in the pot.
V2 folds out of turn
Hero in the big blind with 9♣️ 9♦️

Good squeeze spot or not?

So other than V1 you are closing action here? Being OOP I think that proper amount to squeeze would be at least $120. If called leaves SPR of << 1. You would also be out of position for rest of the hand that will almost certainly contain 1 over to a 9.

If V is PFR at 25% even being generous he's probably only raising 20% from MP. There's no way to run a solver in your head but vs that range 99 is about in the middle.

I think if you were OTB you could squeeze for $100 and still have room post flop to get away a bad flop. Being in the SB you have tremendous odds to set mine. So I probably flat and willing to let go of $20 if I whiff and looking for stacks if I hit.

I'm pretty sure squeezing can't be terrible either but if you get heads up and the flop is K72 are you willing get it all in?

The "standard" raise here would be x4 + limpers so you're looking at raising around 130 with 170 behind and you really don't want to make it a small amount cause multiple callers with 99 is very uncomfortable and there won't be any poker left to play post flop multiway anyway due to low SPR. Given V3 description I don't mind just ripping it in but you could also make the argument that theres 2 bad players in the hand and you don't want to push them out in case the flop is favorable.

I absolutely love a squeeze here.

Here is top 25% minus a few of the worst Ax off and Kxss (seemed unlikely):


Equity Win Tie
UTG 55.33% 54.88% 0.45% { 99 }
UTG+1 44.67% 44.22% 0.45% { 66+, A2s+, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, A9o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo }

The fact that the Ac is gone helps as well. I'm sure you could add a lower pp or two to the above range. He will probably be folding a ton of hands you are flipping vs and everyone else is super capped. Add to that your tight image and the fact that you made the dealer count the pot to prove you could still rase, and I make it 120+ vs this line up almost every time.

All of that said, there is absolutely nothing wrong with calling, and this is probably the lowest pp I do this with. I just think the above takes max advantage of the sweet setup you find yourself in.

yes

To answer above post, if OP says yes, I would lean more to squeeze or possibly shove.

Yes, if I flatted, V1 (the UTG straddle) would have the option of raising.

That was my other question. If the pre-flop raise is called, checking the flop seems terrible. Shoving most flops seems reckless.

I probably just call and set mine here. It isn't a bad spot to squeeze, but if V3 calls I would expect V5 to call. OOP with less than a pot sized bet on the flop we aren't getting any better hands to fold but we also are going to have a tough time folding ourselves.

I call and set mine. Earlyish raise by best player at the table. His range from that spot is probably closer to 10% than it is to 25%. These other nits might have AK they are not folding.

I probably save the 3B spot for a worse hand or a better hand. I do think you have the right mixof players to make the play, not a lot of guys wanting to play big pots without the nuts preflop, but idk seems too high variance when you can simply call and win stacks if a 9 hits.

I am thinking V3 might be playing 3D chess? The flashed Ace might have prompted him to raise light?

Long story short, I can't make up my mind. If it was early in a session, which it sounds like for you, I'd probably call. If it's late in a session, and I have no problem going home, I'd shove all-in pre. This is a tough decision, all 3 choices have their merits.

All three choices? Im not sure how we can fold getting close to direct odds already to hit a set

I think 3 choices being squeeze to $120, set mine or jam.

Not sure I would 3B polarized here. Too many players in to hope for it to fold through.

Yes, those are the 3 choices. I didn't contemplate folding.

Shoving is interesting, might be the best line actually 300 to win 70 needs to succeed 80% of the time. Given descriptions and preflop action I'd guess only V1, V3 and V4 can have better. V1 hasn't acted and probably calls with the top 5% of hands here. V3 probably calls with top 8% here and V5 top 3% (discounting AA, KK from his range). With those numbers your shove succeeds around 85% of the time. When called you still have 40% ish equity.

Some table top math:

85% win 70
15% x 40% win 650
15% x 60% lose 300

60+ 39 - 27 = $72

That seems like a better option than squeezing for sure.

Right, because just jamming 300 into 70 is what you would do with all of your premium hands..........?

Doesn't really matter. No one can call here with KJ or KT. and if they do you are still flipping.

With a raise to $120 you will get put in some awkward spots postflop. I would either call or jam.

I should have been more clear. The flashed ace was exposed after V3 had already raised (during V6s button discard). It seemed like an honest ethical disclosure rather than an angle shoot.

Yeah, I should have figured that out myself.
Well that eliminates 3D Chess by V3.

The flashed Ace is messing up my thought process.
Any V with Ax is more likely to fold to your squeeze or shove now.

You're not deep enough to do anything but jam really. 70 out there? I guess you could make it 110 and fold to a 4-bet. I don't really like the descriptions of Vs though.

The other angle I was thinking about on this hand is what if I didn't have pocket 9s. What if I raised to $120 with random junk like 5♥️ 7♦️?? Then, just c/f and give up if called. What if I just limited the play to pre-flop?

With $70 in the pot, it would only have to work 2 out of 3 times to show a profit.



As for the hand in the OP, I did just call to set mine pre.

Flop came
Q♦️J♠️7♥️

Checked through

Turn
J♣️

Checked through

River
A♥️

V1 bet $40 with KTo
V3 called with ATo
Everyone else folded.

So, the squeeze would have worked this time.

I think 9s and 8s are borderline for me in this spot. I’m def raising (jamming given stack size) TT and I’m def calling 77, in a vacuum. I could go either way with 88 or 99. If I think the opener is wide enough to have hands like KJo (ie he’s not limping a lot of his Broadway combos), then I think the jam is profitable with 99.

This is a pretty easy 3bet spot, tbh (I'd shove). Initially reading this I was most concerned about V2 nit and V3 TAG. However, now that I see V2 folds beforehand he's out of the equation. If V3 is raising 25% of his hands, he's definitely not a TAG in full ring (and this hand is at least 8 handed). V4 is likely to fold hands as strong as TT/JJ (could he fold QQ? Maybe). Since the Ace was exposed, this is a weird spot where I'd expect players to even fold AK. V5 could potentially call off with any pocket pair or cards he wants to see a flop with. V1 is in the straddle and thus must defend with any 2 cards...not really, but he's an unknown so there's always a chance that he could call off with garbage.

If V2 was still in the hand and V3 was a true TAG then just call given stack depths. BTW, based on your description of V3 I think he is a garbage player and I'd 3bet him relentlessly until he goes home crying to mommy.