1/3 NL - 500 eff, 8 handed

V1 is a late 20s, early 30s Asian / mixed male, just sat down, no reads.

V1 open 8 UTG, folds to me on button with JcJh, I 3b to 25, he calls. Standard open size at the table is to ~12-15 so V1's open was very small

Flop: T22ssh
V1 leads 25, I call.

Turn: Qc
V1 bets 50, I call

River: 6h
V1 bets 75, hero?

Looking back I think best play would've been raising flop with JJ - KK and calling with AA. But now that we've reached the river this way, what's your play?

He's betting well under half pot and there is a busted draw he could easily have. Never folding. Readless, not raising AP either.

Go bigger pre - I think anywhere from $30-$40 is fine versus this small of an open.

You're definitely going to want to raise flop with every overpair, including AA. If you just flat a to hand as strong but also as vulnerable as JJ, you're risking making his donks profitable.

As played I just call turn too. River is a pretty meh spot, I would just call with the pot odds we're getting.

I don’t agree that we have to raise the flop here on this texture. Sure, we’re very likely ahead now, but equitywise we’re not doing that great against a range that contains a lot of 12-15 out draws (FD + overcard(s)). It’s okay to just call here and wait for a safe turn card to raise.
AP with the Q hitting and completing a lot of Qxss type hands, I am going into call-down mode. I’m not considering folding the river given the price.

"AP with the Q hitting and completing a lot of Qxss type hands, I am going into call-down mode"

What do you mean by this? Why would completing Qxss type hands make you want to go into call down mode?

I just mean at this point on turn, I think raising would be too thin. Opponent can have AsQs,KsQs,QsJs (dunno if you block that with the Js), maybe Qs9s/Qs8s if he’s opening loose UTG.

Whereas on an offsuit 9-3 I think we can consider putting in a raise on the turn if we don’t raise the flop.

Anyway, we still call turn and look to call most rivers because he has a lot of flush draws in range. That’s why I said to enter “call-down mode”

Flat pre, prob call down.

****ing christ my brain is dumb tonight

I ended up folding given I had no history with this player and I by default classify 1/3 players as being incapable of bluffing for significant sizing on rivers. If I've ever seen him bluff I will always call.

He had AT though, which was tilting / surprising. I don't hate my play but I guess I could've called since he was a younger guy.

Curious, would people still call river if he was 60+ y.o. with no reads?

I was talking about raising flop. He has next to no JJ - AA so I think there is way too much value from V's Tx and spade draws not to raise (so long as he is not likely to 3b flop).

Not really a significant size on river though, just a hair bit north of 1/3 pot.
If this is an older gent who is incapable of bluffing, I think I would be even more inclined to call given the small sizings across all streets. Older gents are probably just limping A2s not raising to 8 or whatever. Also A2 probably sizes up on turn to protect against flush draws. Seems that we’re almost always good here.

Sure you can raise flop. My point is that doing so is not necessarily “for value” against his flush draws. A bare NFD has like 50% equity on the flop against our hand. Which is why it could make sense to put a raise in after a safe turn card hits. Also, a raise might scare off a weak T that we might get value from on the turn. My only point is that we have options on the flop — it’s not a must raise.

Getting that price especially I think you have to call. Either he's not getting to the turn with a lot of queens or he's getting to the turn and river with a lot of flush draws that missed. One of those things has to be true and they both necessitate a call given that price.

And yeah, a lot of people just like to bet down TPTK regardless of circumstance, it's pretty weird.

He needs to have AQss or AKss to have close to 50%, and AKss will 4b a significant portion of the time. All other spade draws we have anywhere from ~55-60% equity (one overcard) to 70% equity (no overcards). Any Tx we are dominating completely.

We have 65% equity against a reasonable calling range for V (AT, KT, AsQs, AsKs, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, 8s9s, 7s8s, TT, 22, Ac2c, Ah2h). This accounts for folding out QT, JT and some other flush draws. There's no way a flop raise is not good with the exception of V being capable of 3b us with spade draws.

When I say significant sizing I'm not talking about bet to pot ratio but rather absolute bet sizing. Anything 15-20bbs+ is where many Vs get uncomfortable bluffing whereas many would be more than happy to bluff 1.5x pot into a 4bb pot.

I agree he has few Qs on turn which is why I think turn is a clear call. I'm more worried about V continuing to bet on river with spade draws and Tx despite me calling the Q turn and my 3b preflop.

He doesn't have a ton of value but he does have some: QT, TT, 22, A2s, QJss, KQss, AQss, Q9ss.

Would your decision change if V was 60+ y.o. rather than late 20s - early 30s?

Sure, but if he has hands like QJs and Q9s then he also has to have hands like A4s, KJs, J9s, K9s, A5s, 89s that will want to keep bluffing. Point being, if he's got those suited queens then he has bluffs on the river. Whether he picks them or not is another story, but he doesn't need to pick many to necessitate a call due to the price we're getting.

With some obvious exceptions, I don't think making big hero folds when getting a good price is a very important part of playing good poker, especially if the central reasoning for the fold is "I don't think this person is capable of bluffing in this spot, even though he has bluffs available to him." So yeah, I'm prob calling down everyone until I actually get some reliable reads that they really don't bluff.

Yeah it's a good point about V not needing many bluffs as well as this spot being close enough that it's not all that important. I just enjoy talking strategy and hearing other people's thoughts Based on everything, I think my go-forward strategy if this happens again is to call against players <40 years and fold if >40 years.

I generally take the opposite approach to you with regards to calling in close spots at these stakes - I usually assume players can't bluff unless proven otherwise. I personally have not found many players capable of regularly triple barreling A4s, KJs, J9s, K9s, A5s, 89s - type hands at 1/3 but you may be in a different player pool.

First paragraph: Fine..

Second paragraph: Reasonable continuing range. Probably even too heavily weighted towards strong value. I doubt TT/22 ever play the hand as a donk lead. V is more likely to x/r those holdings. Just to reiterate: I never said raising flop wasn’t “good”…it is definitely +EV. I just mean that it isn’t necessarily the only (or most +EV) way to play the hand, especially if raises gets all/most of Vs Tx to fold. If this donk lead is a “bet to see where I’m at” type deal with Tx, we might not want to scare those hands off. When we’re 60:40 against his most likely draws, and 80:20 against Tx, we really want to keep those Tx in range. If you think he’s continuing with a lot of his Tx to a flop raise, though, then go for it.

Third paragraph: okay interesting. I had a completely different read: the almost same size bet on river as turn (same in absolute dollar amount not pot ratio) generally indicates a weak hand.

He shouldn’t have donks on this flop. He’s probably not a thinking player. I would call down, I want to keep him in with Tx and mid pairs so he can make more mistakes

That's not "significant sizing.". Ge bet $75 into $200. Yeah, I still call if he's 60 though I'm crying more.

I think I'm just going to sigh call down.

75/350 = 21%

Do you think you might be winning against his range 21% of the time? If yes, call.

Next time post pot sizes on each street so we know what type of bet we're facing.

Think I'm actually cool with the whole hand and then I probably struggle with the river decision. Against other stereotypes, I probably default to a fold as I just don't think enough players 3barrel their semi-bluffs postflop; against this stereotype, it's closer. Although his sizing on the river certainly seems more please-call-me with AQss/KQss than it does please-fold.

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