Hi all,

I haven't done a post in ages mainly because I haven't been playing. I do a lot of commenting on others' posts however. So it's about time I got some advice!

3/3, Star Casino, 200-300 BI

Villain in this hand is pretty spewy and makes questionable calls and raises, he raise/called all in otf on an 8d8h4d board when one semi muppet and one old nit looked super strong and went all in. He mucked and both had 8x which chopped villains all in after a turned 4. He fiddles with his stack and looks serious so he's pretty much a reg muppet, slowly losing at the game.

Hero's image is TAG and has shown down strong hands so far, most notable being AA when I called down the nit villain (^prev hand) the whole way when I 3b him pre and he donk bet 3 streets on an 886r 7 5 board and showed TT.

To the hand:

Hero is UTG 8 handed w ATo on a table of 4 muppets, 1 ok reg, 2 nitfish and myself.

Blinds post
Hero ($800ish) raises to $16
Reg Utg+1 folds
UTG+2 muppet calls
Villain ($450) in HJ calls
CO nit folds
Btn nitfish folds
Blinds fold

Flop ($54) : Tc 7c 6s

Hero bets $35
Muppet folds
Villain calls $35

Turn ($124): 9s

Hero bets $70
Villains calls $70

River ($264): Jh

Hero checks
Villain bets $85
Hero?

i just fold river as a standard play unless you have a read that he's very likely to bluff at a board like this

lots of hands got there that make sense. JT most notably. Also T8, 98, J8, 87, 86 are all possible

he could have also had the set from the start and is betting small for value now that you've checked this scary river

all you really beat is a total bluff

Why did you bet the turn this deep?

nvm didn't realize turn made a 4 card straight lol.

I figure he doesn't credit me much for a decent hand still and will call with a wide range - pair + gutshot hands and even Q9+ and ofc JT+

Bump

No need to bump threads that are only 7 hours old...

Don't bet the turn.

Most hands you beat fold, and the only ones that call you are winning or have lots of equity against you. It's almost the nut worst turn card. (9 obv is)

Might even make a case for check folding the turn.
Do you have the A btw?

Pre: ATo UTG? Muck. Get another bourbon from the pretty waitress with the blue eyes.

Flop: Yuck that flop sucks. Gotta cbet though. $35 fine.

Turn: Nice. 1-liner to a straight, and two flush draws. Let's see if we can check it down.

River: Well at least the flush didn't get there. x/f.

I think there are a lot of bad turn cards but since he has a pretty wide range a bet will get equity from hands we still beat - entirely villain dependent ofc. Based on the info in the op I'd figure that people would be advocating a turn bet over check/folding.

Don't have the Ac nup, My hand was AsTh

Hate to be that guy, but fold pre.

Probably check turn and check/fold river as played.

I think people are being too tight here. I'm not a pre-flop cop; this would be the bottom of an UTG raising range 8-handed, but seems like you have a good image, so sure, why not. Flop seems standard.

Turn card is not awesome, but I think we can still get called by worse. We raised UTG; how many 8s do we really have here? And the guy is call happy, and call happy people will usually call with a lot of dominated top pair hands. Granted, most of his pair and a gutter hands either made a straight or two pair, but there's still a flush draw on the board - most of those hands will want to protect and will raise us on the turn, and we can let it go.

By that logic, I think the river is a call. I think most of the stuff that beats us shows itself before now. He bet 1/3 pot - we're getting 4:1. Is he going to show up with like 97 here sometimes? Yeah, probably. But we're going to be good 20% of the time.

^You don't need to balance/widen an UTG range at low levels and it's pretty hard to make a solid case for raising ATo for value. Flops often go multiways and it's rare you'll flop TP+. Even when flopping TP a lot of turns will make you/opponents slow down so extracting even two streets of value is tricky.

I think its a fold. A lot of hands get there on the river that beat you. I know the villain can be crazy, but even maniacs get there fare share of cards!

Pretty sure 11t or DGI has a good tl;dr post on justifying what hands are good to raise in what position in low stakes.

Fold.

I'd like to see that if anyone has it handy. It really varies a ton from table to table though. I would have also folded this hand pre at this table. I like the cbet, would probably barrel the turn. Check folding the river seems best.

Grunch.

I am probably going to dump this hand pre-flop? Why? Because the fish are going to have position on us, which as you see, can make it more difficult to play with a marginal hand. If the blinds are bad players and no light three-bettors behind you, then it can be an open.

But I am ok with it, so let's evaluate the rest of the hand:

Flop - I am fine with the bet and the sizing here.
Turn - I am good with it. IMO, he caps his range here to either a T or a flush draw and perhaps a gutshot if he is super fishy. Sets, straights, and 2pair plus hands all raise.
River - Hmmm.

Is the J that much of a scare card?

Can we get called by worse? We probably get a crying call from KT/QT/T9. We are going to value-cut ourselves against JT.

I think this is a clear-cut bet-fold situation. We can still get called by worse and we are deep enough to safely bet-fold if we get raised. I bet $125.

The only time to check is if you think you can induce a bluff from missed clubs. From your description, it sounds like the villain might be that type of opponent but I don't really want to rely on others making my value bet for me.

As played, snap call.

I am surprised about the comments on the turn play. He is not going to just call the turn with a set/straight/two pair. He has to start getting value you at some point.

Turn calls cap our opponents ranges to a pair or a draw 95% of the time.

We are betting the turn for value, but we get the side effect of if he raises we know where we are at and can safely fold.

TB ^ I agree with almost every word of your first post; problem with the second (emphasis upon making a turn bet) is: the exact situation found here. Bc we bet turn, we also have to call river, on marginal pot odds, to see it through. So many combos beat us.

Assuming that Vil is NOT wearing a hooded sweatshirt, we're never as good as 1:4.

I'd much rather check turn, bet River.

I don't like checking the turn because we are giving him infinite equity at making his draw.

The description said V was spewy and capable of making moves, so that is why I am snap calling his bet. I think we are good here 20% of the time.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...water-1256664/

Hero folded river

Ya this. I agree with the rest of your post as well. People are too risk averse of scare cards oop regardless of the villain type - the most influential independent variable to assess when making a decision.

Thanks for the link, it was a good read.

Good read. thanks for the link