SB is a fishy reg but not clueless and views Hero as a tight winning player. SB tries to stay out of big pots with Hero especially this deep.
This bet sizing preflop probably means he has QQ, KK or AA. Maybe AK. I think his small flop bet is to test the water and he might bet big on a blank turn

SB $1100 stack and hero covers we have not been into big pots with each other this session.



UTG and MP are loose rec fish with $400 stacks.

UTG and MP limp, SB raises to $35, Hero calls in BB with 99, UTG and MP call

Flop 982 ($140)
SB bets $70

I generally wouldn't recommend slowplaying a set with 4 players in the hand, especially since there is some value to be had vs draws here. Unless you are 100% positive that the other players fold here, I would just raise it up like normal.

Yeah, I'm raising here with the intention of getting his stack. I'd go smaller though. Something like $150ish.

We have the nuts and there are 300bb stacks to play for, I think raising is the obvious choice.

*If* you're quite sure he'll fold some hands otf that would have fired a big turn barrel, there's a case to just flat here

With 4 to the flop, and super deep, though, my default is to raise small here. The deep stacks aren't getting in without a raise somewhere

I am going to raise to ~$150, as I don't see him folding for another $80 when there's $360 in the pot. That will make the pot $440 going to the turn and leave him with ~$845.

$245 on the turn puts the pot at $930 & you can bet his last $600 on the river.

Raising 100% of the time here for a couple of reasons:

1) if villain really does view you as tight, your preflop flat from BB looks very strong. This is good if he truly has as tight a range as you assign him, because he could think you are raising an overpair on this flop for value.
2) there are very few true blanks on the turn, especially if one of the fish calls behind you. Faced with two opponents, only 5, 4, and 3 count as true blanks that are unlikely to have improved anyone's hand. This means you are less likely to be able to sell a turn raise as a bluff.
3) perhaps least importantly, the two fish behind you also potentially have some equity and we are giving them a great price by flatting. If we had reason to believe that one might make a big bluff raise on the flop, I could justify flatting for deception, but just standard fish are never raising anything but a set on this board.

I could go either way. Wouldn't mind getting a street of value from any draws back there, or 9x; don't want to fold out overcards that might spike the turn. Thing is, though, SB is clearly the target, he's not going anywhere whether you call or raise (is he?), and he's so deep you have to start raising early if you want to get his stack. If SB had a shorter stack I would lean toward calling, but as deep as he is, I figure I would just stay focused on that and raise.

Flatting potentially allows one of the two loose rec fish to spazz raise, allowing SB to raise isolate huge at which point you can flat again or 3! over him.

I'm inclined to slowplay here with the nuts and give others a chance to make a huge mistake. We have two streets left to get stacks in easily with just slightly over PSB.

If we flat and both loose recs fold (worst case scenario), a PSB $280 on turn leaves a pot of $840 with about $1015 behind.

Flatting gives the straight draws the right price.

Raise to $140 or $150.

OESD is ~6:1 to hit and the first caller would only be getting 4:1 odds, the second caller 5:1. And we'll pretty much always have the odds to boat up if they do hit.

It's a calculated risk. If they don't spazz out we can just raise SB on the turn or bet them out if the draw bricks.

4.88:1

Cawl and turn a 3

Right - point remains, first caller is still not getting the direct odds. I'm willing to take the risk if raising will spook villain. It's unlikely we would raise a straight draw here with 2 players left to act behind us that could blow us out of the pot with a real hand.

Plus the read says:

"SB is a fishy reg but not clueless and views Hero as a tight winning player. SB tries to stay out of big pots with Hero especially this deep."

So a raise here is basically announcing our hand to fishy SB who will then fold.

Normal set line for me is call flop, raise turn, push river.

You're so deep here and with this board, I think the flop raise is better.

I think a raise to $150 looks like a JJ type of hand trying to figure out if he's good.

If a bigger pair is out there, I think he's at least calling or more likely coming over the top.

2 limps for $3, and then sb makes it $35? Is that really the action?

I would assign villain a range of pretty much 100% pairs here. As others have said, since we are so deep, I'm going to try to build it up now. I think $165-$175 seems like it could be an info probe with TT or something. Assuming he calls, I would make a weird turn bet of $180-$195. Then river just kind of depends on the run out, and what you think he'll call. If he 3bets flop, just call obv.

I would only flat flop with multiple players behind if I believed one of them was aggressive enough to stuff single pairs and draws.

"Tight winning players" (Hero's image) aren't "raising for info" on the flop and turning made hands like JJ-TT into a bluff

Did anyone calculate in the fact that he said with this kind of line, the fish PROBABLY has QQ+, he may have zero outs, although I am certainly not one to slow play I think this warrants a conversation if there ever was one to be had. We just flopped top set on a rainbow board with a fishy aggressor who PROBABLY has two outs, if we raise it may fold around including his AK-AQ range snap folding when he could be barreling with ZERO outs.

I think it's close cuz of stack sizes but in this case I'm all for taking a calculated risk and hoping someone behind spazzes a raise, it's as likely to pair the board as hit OESD, I say let them call behind and build a massive pot and lead/raise almost every turn but T or 7 if someone calls behind.

If ever there is a time to use the standard flat, c/raise turn line on sets its here, dry rainbow flop with top set with the preflop raiser leading into you IMHO.

If we are going to assume a V is drawing to an OESD, then we must "know" what two of his cards have to be. We also know what our 2 cards are. So, there are 45 unseen cards. 8 of them will make the str8.

[45-8]/8 = 4.5:1

If you want to assume he has a BDFD, then another 8 cards will give him a flush draw [2 were already counted in the str8 draw] ; so long as it's s or s.

[45-16]/16 = 1.81:1 against making his OESD or catching a flush draw.

If he catches his flush draw, then:
[44-15]/15 = 1.93:1 going into the river.

If you are going to assume that a V behind you has this draw & the V who lead out has an overpair, then the V with the draw has better odds than stated above, because you "know" where another 2 cards are.

So, no, I'm not slowplaying my set on this coordinated board. Maybe I'll get lucky & someone behind me will have flopped 2 pair.

I'm not assuming anything Zune. All I know is I have the nuts and will boat up 15% of the time on the turn and 20% on the river and don't want to spook SB away, while still allowing one of the idiots behind us to do something stupid.

Also - I have no idea what point you are trying to make with your math. There are three possible OESD's out there: JT, T7 and 76

Those are the facts. Everything else is speculation. But given OP's read I'm just calling here.

That's what I love about poker: Everyone gets to play the way they want to. If there weren't players willing to let those with draws have the right price to see the turn, then the games would dry up.

Grunch:

This seems like a call to me. We have the nuts and we are pretty sure villan has QQ+ after betting into 3 opponents. I we flat we can get the other callers ago come along as well. We keep our hand strength disguised and allow the others villains to raise. We are 300 bb deep and I doubt we get villan to just auto stack off with an over pair. Our best bet is to lethim to bet huge on the turn and hope he has committed himself IMO.

If we can range a villan so perfectly preflop I think raising is a mistake unless fishy means he can't fold AA-KK for 300bb. In that case raising flop is best even though it turns our hand face up.

Exactly.

There is 633 BB's up for grabs and we currently have the nuts. If we raise now, we are pricing out UTG and MP from coming along and preventing them the opportunity to make a colossal mistake. We also let SB off the hook by announcing the strength of our hand. How much of an idiot are you gonna feel like when you raise and everybody folds and you win a whopping 35 BB's (5% of available stacks) with the nuts?

If ever there was a time to raise it would be when we have an OESD vs. this villain who respects our game and will give us credit for a set. But when I have the nuts I am playing for everyone's stack, not a measly 35 BB's.

You gotta give people a chance to commit themselves. Sometimes you will get burned, but the times you stack everybody more than makes up for it. I see people make huge raises all the time letting me off the hook so easy and I am dying laughing inside while they have this dejected look on their face that they just blew their one big hand for the night.

Not to mention if villans are limp calling an 11x raise with 67, 10 7 and 10J with only 150bb effective it's a pretty big mistake. I think we need to have some idea of there limp calling range in this spot.

Not to mention if we are so certain villan has QQ+ we can play turn and river perfectly vs him. Hell we could even make a sick fold if our reads are really this good.

As a player with a tight image who often plays against loose fishy regs who are not completely clueless and realize that any time they play a big pot with me, they almost always seem to lose, I would call against most of them in this spot, realizing that few regs are keen to to put in 300BB with just an overpair against me. Taking control of the hand on the flop is often the worst play, keeping in mind that I am referring to specifically me with my table image against my regular opponents, and that this does not necessarily apply to anyone else.

Against this player, the most likely scenario for getting it in would be for me to flat the flop, him to check the turn to represent AK unimproved, me to appear to be betting JJ/TT in an attempt to protect my hand, and him check-raising.

The second-most likely scenario for getting it in is to call and hope one of the short stacks raise behind and the SB at least calls, making the pot big enough for him to feel pot-committed to calling on the turn and river if he doesn't do the betting himself.