If you're not expecting to collect 3 streets of value with an OP then that means villain is not calling down 3 streets with 1010 or A9 or worse, which means he's folding too much post flop and we can probably increase our bluffing frequency.

1. I should have clarified that those hands are posted are examples of good bluffing hands and aren't the only hands we should use to bluff. KQ is probably inferior though since it cannot make the nuts on the river, but its better than something like A2o.

2. Say villain has 1010. From his POV, the EV of folding turn is $0. If we bluff too much on the turn, the EV of calling is positive while if we bluff too little, the EV of him calling is negative. If we bluff too much or too little, he can easily determine the highest EV line to take, thus exploiting us. If we bluff the correct amount, he cannot exploit us since the EV of folding is close to the EV of calling.

3. We still have a position advantage on the river if he calls turn.

4. When we bet flop, we should have a bluff far more often than having a value hand.

5. The exact opposite is correct, on each street we have reasons to believe he has only a medium strength hand (though probably moreso pre than on the flop). Note that I'm counting 9-X as a medium strength hand.

6. If we bluff all draws on the flop that should be okay. We must then give up some bluffs on the turn (such as backdoor draws that missed) but 87 should fall in the continue bluffing category.

I don't think you've really thought through this. If Villain supposedly has a weak range why are you concerned that we have a draw to the nuts?

Even if you think the nuts are important, 78 has only 4 outs to the nuts on the turn since a ten no longer gives 78 the nuts.

If we're betting overpairs and bluffs on each street (not to say that's correct but that's OP's strategy) then we have many less value hands on each street. Lots of our bluff hands on the flop, for example KQ, are value hands on the turn. We don't need to keep bluffing with a bunch of hands we were bluffing with on the flop.

In general if you're opening 78s on the button your range is not strong enough to be 3-barreling with any frequency.

Any good player can see that our betting range is getting weaker and weaker on each street; we continue with bluffs and have less and less overcards/TPTK.

I think you're way to preoccupied with your guess of Villain's range as opposed to what a good player is likely to do with that range.

You seem to think a good player has two options in this spot: calling or folding.

I would not be at all surprised to find out that we were bluffed, by the best hand, on the river. If we're opening 30% of hands (which seems logical if we open 78s), very rarely are we going to have a hand that we're bet-calling for value on the river.

The bluff on the river makes sense because we might not fold our draws on the turn, but after a bunch of draws brick betting might make sense considering our bet-bet-bet lines doesn't make sense with the vast majority of our range.

Yeah I kinda felt like he was turning his hand into a bluff on the river. I was contemplating shoving but I wasn't sure if that was a spew. But why is my range getting weaker with each card that came out? I still be here with. Lot of vh. Such as jx , sets kx and Qq+ do you feel these are bad bets?

I saw your comment about only betting AJs or better.

On the flop you value-bet TT and A9. On the turn you don't bet those but keep bluffing with all the same hands.

On the river do you make a big bet with AJ after the king falls especially with the risk of being bluffed off the best hand and Villain less likely to call with A9?

I was assuming that you were continuing to bluff but no longer value-betting as many hands.

I was going by the general rule that when the turn and river are both overcards it's very unlikely that anyone has TPTP or an overpair by the river; after all that's only AK and aces in this spot.

HOlding AA - this 100%

however as far as OP hand - what overpair does a TAG villain have when he limp calls form the CO? pretty sure it looks like: { }

Only hand i see him raising river is something like J9s that he may limp call.

That said his range is mostly crappy BS with a small pieces of the flop, so I honestly dont hate the turn bet. Maaaaaybe 22, but i think any TAG opens 22 first in from the CO, so either: A) he's not a TAG or B) his range is capped and he made a ridiculous bluff and doesnt realize how weak his hand looks but you only have 8 hi, gg to him.

I guess there's also situation C) which is all of the above

If i had more info on what you thought villain thought of you i would adjuts my above assessment some - specifically if he thinks youre FOS out of line and are betting turns with way to too high a frequency

EDIT: and he's a tourney player and ime tourney players take weird lines that work with sub 75BB stacks that make zero sense with 100+ BB stacks.

This gets REALLY tricky how you play a very good postflop player (If he happens to be one). Is he really that good? How well he plays is questionable almost always regardless of him being a 2-5 pro. (He limped CO)

Your flop cbet is smallish and he will be reading this as a routine follow through cbet from an unknown which you are to him i guess.

Your turn bet was too large IMO. He wont buy the Jx that you represent and it commits him more to the pot after calling it. When he called this big of a turn bet, alarm bells would go off -- thus I prolly shut down here on the river.

If he picked up a Jx on the turn (or has better) then he is calling the river most likely unless he views you as a nit.

Technically if you bluff approx half pot on the river, you should have about 25% combos of bluffs and 75% combos of value on river to make a great bet. Here with the small cbet, i would imagine the bluffs/value ratio is way out of whack in this example.

I would bet $55 on turn and it may prompt him to go ahead and raise any set he may have. If called I would have to decide if this hero will hero call 88 77 9x whatever on the river, and what betsize might fold him out. That would determine if i bet river or not.

Betting the turn is surely called for since we have reasonable equity working for us and there should be hands in his range that can possibly fold to the turn bet since if he is a CO limper, then how good can he really be?

I say we have to really think hard about our bets, his range, and what he does with his range to play well vs what we figure to be a real thinking player.

Atm vs tag why are we bluffing a naked oesd . We cant find a worse way to
Give our money away on this board. Bluffing in llsnl is close to no good anyway
Semi bluffing is close to no good anyway. Tag can call us down and then take
Our money in an hour if he wanted..forget about the money invested there's
No room for gambling in poker. Cant win all the time. Balance? We're
An,atm are u kidding.. Our image is set in stone. Balance overrated in
Llsnl rite guys
Hope this made sense

He was the player in the sb he would never open limp in co

I must've written it wrong he was the player in the blinds sorry for the confusion.

You wrote it right, everyone just can't read I guess.

You don't really want a bunch of callers... Maybe $25 would have been better preflop. I guess we're raising to isolate the CO limper? Picking up the blinds +$5 is not bad for our hand.

If BB is really a tight, good player, what's his range? PP's, 22-TT? Maybe some suited broadways, maybe some SC's, but not a lot. If he's really tight, he's got a lot of pocket pairs in his range, and he's not folding to your flop bet very often.

I'd probably still bet the OESD on the flop, 35 to 40 seems right... CO should fold a lot, and you do have a great draw on a dry flop, so you have implied odds, even against a decent player.

Don't think 78 is that great a double barrel, though. His range is pretty heavy in pockets, but you're blocking the pp's he's most likely to call the flop with and fold on the turn (77 and 88). You're also blocking the only draw he could have, which is another 78. You really are folding out what on the turn, like 65s? 55? Maybe, if he even calls the flop with that. He's still got another person to act after him, so he'd probably throw the real marginalia away...

So you're probably looking at at 9, a set, or TT, maybe even JJ if he's not too aggro preflop, and a diminished number of 77, 88, 78s... He's probably not floating you with overcards OOP, because what decent, TAG-ish 2-5 player does that? He probably doesn't fold a 9 on a J turn, so basically, don't barrel here... Now, if you DIDN't have exactly 78s, but turned a draw, that could have been a barrel, if we're really into balance here. QT, KQ, KT, something like that. Then he'd have more stuff he could potentially fold on the turn. Also, if the BB folded the flop, you could probably barrel the CO, especially if he's tight or bad or could have a 2 or a bad 6 or would float you with crap OOP, etc... Not enough reads given to know, but that would be generally a weaker range than the tighter BB cold calling $20.

So yeah, flop good; check back turn and prepare to win a huge pot against 222 when you bink a straight.

Also, if we're really lost on how this guy plays, what he could have, what he'd do with what he has there, etc -- betting $35 and then checking back turn is guaranteed to make money with 78 on that board. We're drawing to effective nuts, we're going to get there around a third of the time, and we just paid slightly over half pot on the flop to do it. It's impossible to make a mistake. On the other hand, when we start swinging away on turn and river, it's very, very possible to start making big errors. We should probably have a pretty good idea of what he's holding and what he's folding, though, before we decide to go for the birds in the bush.

Thanks for the input. Seems like you got it perfect imo. Very good anaylisis.

oh crap you're right, i read the post wrong - i'm sorry about that man :/ not sure how more than one of us did this though heh - i'll respond with a proper reading of your post in a bit

No prob man. Tyvm for input.

Ahhhh yes, it all holds true that when he calls that larger bet on the turn, he is calling most scare cards on the river too when Button vs blind. These days smart players know that it is hard to hit that final overcard in reality.

Yeah, thanks for everybody's input , got a ton from the post appreciate it everyone.

his flatting range is most likely a lot of unpaired bottom end broadway (TJ, QJ maybe the top of it) and some middling pocket pairs, maybe some suited Kx and Ax that doesnt squeeze to keep in CO if CO is terrible. Basically youre perceived range is wide that he thinks he can profitably call and win more post flop vs just raising and everyone folding.

Obviously youre c-betting 100% of what you raised to iso with and this flop just doesnt smack anything but 78 so you rep nothing effectively. I'm surprised he doesnt stab at the J on the turn - which to me says he thinks you'll keep going w/ a majority of your range which is still rather wide and behind to Jx hands. Again king on the river as already mentioned isnt a scare card to a better play who will probably call there but the fact that he raises makes me think he has a stronger hand at this point.

I still think its fine to bet the J, i just think giving up on the K is better once he calls turn if he's decent and likely to float. He's also more likely to slowplay flopped sets since you are less likely to have a really strong hand that wont just fold to any raise on earlier street and therefore gets more value letting you bet.

Add in just a little bit of whiff and some aggression and a river ch/raise is likely to win a large majority of the time even when you hit a hand (your more likely to weakly connect w/ this runout) - what do you rep that gets 3 streets from a good OOP opponent?

very good thread.

im ok with pre, flop but checking back turn. im very weary of playing against good players and they normally dont stick 2 streets without at least medium strength holdings. we can get value if we check turn and hit river for he will lead most rivers there if we check.

heartily disagree with the "wouldnt float with overcards OOP" - common blind defense vs over active button/co is to flat flop and donk turn save for times you hit a hand. unless we dont think good 2/5 villain is good enough to be doing that, its more common online ime