1/2NL with 100bb effective stacks

UTG +1 opens for 12 (uknown MAWG)

HERO 3b to $45 with JJ from SB.

V calls.

Flop 101010

What is your sizing here?

I ended up betting $25

He calls, turn is a Q - now what?

I think GTO would want me betting small, but I'm OOP.

So I think you can look at it TWO ways.

I could bet large enough that his overcards fold and we win 100% of to time to overcards. I'm obvously just losing if he just called with QQ+ but not worried about that.

Or I could bet small, and risk an overcard and then not know which overcard he has and be in a weird spot on the turn, an only sometimes extract value from worse.

Not sure if this guy has a middling pair, people limp with those a lot trying to make high hands, but not always.

I would use T instead of 10.

In these spots where the money is likely to go in very soon, ie. low spr/not playing 3 full streets, you can take your mind off of what GTO would size. Just bet what would be a smooth geometric size to get the money in on a specific street.

IIRC for an SPR of 1.7 you can go like 60% on flop and 60% on turn to get it in. If you want to play 3 streets then you can bet around 1/3 pot each street and comfortably get it in by river, which is kind of what you sized to. Personally, I would want to get this in by turn because of overcards possibly rolling off. The other added benefit to not betting so small is that you can then figure out which overcards are more dangerous. If you had bet 2/3 pot instead of what you did, then you can be much more comfortable getting it in on a Q. And you would know that an A or K are bad cards. This is because as you size your bet larger, your opponent will need more equity to float you, which Qx hands don't have but Ax will. Betting so small lets Qx float, and now you're in no man's land.

Think I bet full pot on flop, with a plan to jam most turns. Don't want to give V a good price to continue with AX, KX, or QX.

Milking over-cards for value is an over-rated concept. I'd rather get value from 99 and his worse PP's.

The fact that the board is trip T's kind of sucks, in how it sort of splits both our range and V's range down the middle. We have all the over-pairs, JJ+, plus maybe some a small number of PP's. But V probably doesn't have any over-pairs, just unpaired over-cards, and lower PP's.

Say V has 88. We have to hope he puts us on 66 or 77, or just two overs. If he has 99, we have to hope he's putting us on 66-88. But he's probably not calling with 77 or worse. Trying to get value from all his worse PP's by betting small is just opening the door for all his un-paired over-cards to catch up on a later street.