Good loose 5/5 game. 7 players in and it's on you in the BB with KQs with a stack of $150. Where do you rank pushing among all possible options?

that sounds like a pretty terrible idea

is this a level?

Why are you playing this game with $150 in front of you?

Just wondering how bad it is. Is it extremely -EV? Is it about even with open folding? Is it +EV but less than seeing a flop?

Risking 150 to win 40. Nobody showed strength and it's not like this is a tricky game where people get sneaky and go for limp-raises with aces and kings. If I win outright 3 times out of 4 I show almost an immediate profit. Do you guys think I get called more often than 25%?

I'd quickly admit playing postflop might be more +EV, but if you guys are saying this is a losing play, I'd like to hear some reasons why.

OP -- I think shoving is okay, but it's a lot harder to determine if it's +EV or by how much because there are so many people who have limped. If they routinely limp weak hands and rarely trap with big hands, then jamming seems great.

If instead it folded to your SB (say), we could say easily that jamming is +EV (though admittedly probably not the most +EV choice).

If there was a live straddle and several callers then I'd say jamming is best (say, if there was 60 or more in the pot instead of 40).

Let's say you get called X% of the time, and loose %60 of the time (since you'll have about 40% equity to calling range 22+,ATs+,ATo+). Solving for X:
(1-X)*40-X*0.6*150=0
40-40X-90X=0 or X=30%
So, if you get called less than 30% of the time, you are good. Actually, less than 27% or so, since you may get more than one caller, and your equity will drop below 35%.

I would raise $45 and shove in the dark (don't tell them that obviously) provided one or two players called.

play with more money, stop wasting your time thinking about situations like this

This comment isn't even remotely useful. Thinking about situations that arise with any stack size is worthwhile.

FWIW, I play with <100BB at least until my button practically every time I lose sizeable pots in MP or earlier.

i really think the stack size is the biggest issue $100 insta shove but $150 is kind of a nasty total to just ship in to win $40, i think i would dip into my pocket and reload before the situation arises. if you think you are a better player thna the table then you want max chips available. if i really had to choose i just make it $40 or $50 to go and ship the flop whilst looking at the cute girl on the rail. what ever line you choose your always gonna get back to the same point why are you playing short against a weak table?

in live poker? really?

this is hilariously nitty IMO, and is probably costing you a small amount of EV

<shrug> I doubt the 2-3 hands I sit with < 100BB in early position hurts me at all unless the other players at the table are absolutely terrible (in which case I've reloaded already). In fact, against even slightly competent players if I could always play short-stacked OOP and deep in position I would.

Regardless, your original response didn't address the question at all and added absolutely nothing to the thread, except for the condescending and bad advice to stop thinking about a preflop situation where the stack-size makes your play awkward.

Who knows why OP is sitting with 30BBs but sometimes you are for any number of reasons -- sometimes it's a game with a really low capped buy-in, or your friend has the rest of your cash and you're waiting for it to get to the table or ... but when you are in that position, you might as well try to figure out the best way to play it.

I did some math on this hand. I think it gets folded around 75% of the time.

25% of the time, someone calls with 88+, AQs+. Yes, some of these idiot live players limp hands like that. I haven't run an exact sim, but if I remember correctly I think I have around 30% equity against that range.

.75 * 40 = 30
.25 ((.3 * 340) - 150) = -12

So pushing is worth $18. Is my math correct?

I'm not sure I agree with your calling range (I think it'd usually be tighter), but I agree with the rest (although I think your equity is actually a little higher than 30%).

1) Raise to $45, hope to take it down right then. If one caller, push on any flop if checked to you (bet $105 to win $120 pot).

2) Raise to $20 as a pot-sweetener in position, hope to get called by all limpers, push all-in if you flop any piece of the flop (pair, straight draw (including gutshots), flush draw) and it's checked to you (bet $130 to win $160 pot). Give up if you get bet into and you miss the flop.

3) Limp from button and play your position to win the pot at some point in the hand.

4) Push all in to potentially steal $35 (knowing you are way behind if called).

5) Fold.