2/5 at Borgata on a Saturday night during the Winter Open(read: more donks than usual)

I have been playing tight at this table. The villain has played even tighter. It's been a couple orbits and I don't think he's played 1 hand.

I raise it to 25 utg.
He is 2 over and snap makes it 55. We are 350 effective.
It comes back to me and I decide to flat since he is so nitty and I raised from utg.

Flop comes Q75r.

I check and he snap bets 85. Sighhhhhh

so you've played < 20 hands and villain has a VPIP of 0.

umm....

what's the matter here? i love 4betting tight players OOP with KK.

furthermore... his 3bet sizing makes me think he is one of the many donks at your table.

so again i ask you what the hold up is

Live nits don't 3bet AK and probably check back JJ on flop. Guessing either AA/QQ/KK in that order.

this guy is NOT necessarily a live nit. he's been dealt 20 hands and a particularly loose table. (standard adjustment to very loose action).

you're making this guy for something he's not.

again look at his 3bet sizing pleaseee

With 350 effective stacks and only 20 hands on someone this is an auto-shove preflop.

I call.


And I think his sizing is strong

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

Villain: 42.809% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hero : 57.191% { KK }


C'mon OP... seriously, don't put unknowns on the one hand that beats you with very scant evidence and all for for 70BB's... who's the NIT here? No offence intended.

Not sure if we can even include AK in his range 100% of the time with that bet postflop. In fact, I'm pretty sure we can't. There is a decent chance he doesn't even 3 bet that pre let alone c bet that flop.

If you knew your villain and were able to say 'I know this guy - he's a total rock and he knows I play tight and if I'm raising in EP he's got to be putting me on a fairly polarized range and he's only 3betting me with AA KK and QQ and folding QQ to a 4bet'... then maybe with 100BB's there's an argument for flatting the stupid x2ish min-raise with KK for set value but OP you have none of these boxes checked - just get it in with your 70BB's.

Just think of this and get it in.

4bet imo. you only have 70BB's and a chance to outboard him if you get it in bad vs the 1 hand that beats you. 150bb+ we can flat. also, i have assumed a ton of old boring people that played nitty always have aces or queens in this spot and i was wrong a suprising amount of the time. sometimes its random **** like 1010. with only 70bbs gotta go for it imo

this is gross. as disgusting as this is, I don't mind a flop fold or if you want call the flop, and fold the turn/river to future action, but that seems even more disgusting. not 4-betting pre is a no-brainer.

the idea that 4bet ship is the right thing to do preflop is kinda fishy, lol. that just sounds like applying online-play strategy to live-play.

the villian is playing tight, so give him the benefit of the doubt that he has some sort of hand reading ability even if it's very basic. so if you ship, you isolate your range in his eyes. you can basically only have QQ+, probably only KK+ since he knows he's been playing tight. which means when you get called you're way behind and you're never getting paid off by worse hands.

fold

This = NIIIIIIT???? I don't think it even counts as "nit." Unless you have other reads you haven't mentioned, I think you are seeing MUB.

Sure, AA and QQ are in his range, but I often go more than two orbits w/out playing a hand, and I'd play AK the same way. Some people I know who will often go two orbits without playing a hand would do this with 99-JJ also. You're ahead of a range of JJ+,AKo,AKs, and 46% if we take out AKo. Surely we need to leave at least one underpair in the range without WAY better reads than we've been given.

SHOVE PRE

FWIW I would play AK like villain here a lot. Seems like a marginal shove.

yea shoving the flop is also probably a bad idea. lol

the only hand that's paying you off is AQ, any other call means your beat. every hand you beat will fold.

you should be playing to control the pot in this situation, with no intent on folding unless maybe an A comes. maybe. heres the best lines for the different likely situations, imo.

check/call flop

check the turn, if he bets just flat again.

if he bet the turn, then look to check/call the river also. if he checked behind on the turn you should probably look to get some value with a small to medium sized bet.

the reason i would play this position so passively is because of the points i made earlier; if you ship pre or on the flop you won't get paid by worse hands and will be crushed when called.

so this kind of passive out of position plays lets you lose the minimum to better hands and gain the maximum from worse hands.

GRUNCH

Since we're so shallow, I make it $150 and call a shove. Two orbits is not a significant sample size. Plus, ain't no way I'm folding KK preflop or on a Q-high flop for 70bb's. If he's got AA, so be it.

As played, I check/shove.

this completely

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

4 bet shove preflop and hope he puts you on JJ QQ or AK and calls with AK JJ QQ.

What do they say, a standard 4 bet (not a jam), especially given the Eff stacks is always AA KK and a 5 bet is always AA.

Re pop it to like 155 and stuff the flop. The reason I like buying in short is for situations like these If ur up against AA or QQ so be it and rebuy

Well I decided to flat pre because I also had been playing tight and a 4 bet likely would appear strong to him regardless of how long he has been here. I would be getting it in on boards don't contain a Queen or Ace and reevaluate those that do.

On the flop, he snap bet a large % of the flop and appeared to be strong. He might think AQ is a great hand here, but I don't think he 3 bets that pre. I'm not even sure he 3 bets AK. I eventually decide to fold face up so the table will think I lay down easy and also I wanted to see what he had. He didn't show but had this shocked look on his face and kept muttering to himself. He racked up a couple hands later, stiill muttering. I guess he had me beat.

The table was 1/2 incredulous, saying that at 2/5 people take his line with a range that includes AQ+, and 88+(I think they might have been leveling me), and 1/2 were impressed, saying that it was the right laydown. I have primarily been a 1/2 player, where 3 betting ranges are ultratight and postflop play is straightforward, so this hand was very interesting to me.

Call flop.. probably go with it on turn. Definitely 4bet pre