Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
you can't ignore the variables in play but you have to quantify them.
To clarify - if we're playing the 72 game, we should remember 72 is still a trash hand, not a premium, and not go over-board bluffing when we get dealt it. Likewise, we should be careful to remember the 72 game is on when 7's or 2's hit the board. But we shouldn't be calling too wide because we level ourselves into believing everyone is trying to bluff us with 72.
Not sure how we quantify something like that in a way that's useful for making in-game adjustments. It's not like counting combos of A5s, if the bounty is inspiring players in the game to play every 72 combo from every position, and if they're often barreling off with it.
Sure, we can quantify the overlay on the pot created by the bounty, and we can add 16 bluff combos to opponents' ranges, but it's nearly impossible to judge opponents' willingness to barrel off with an air-ball bluff in spots that wouldn't otherwise make sense if the 72 game wasn't on.
Like, who can say if a guy has the balls to barrel off when every draw missed, and we're going to call wider, versus only barreling off when the most obvious draws get there?
I'd expect ignoring the added variables of the 72 game will lead to better decisions than giving them too much weight.
In the stand-up game, I'm convinced just playing correct ranges in correct ways will yield higher EV than playing more loose-aggro. The bounty only seems to increase the variance for players who try to adjust to it.
In the two-hands-in-a-row bounty game OP's described, I can see how the game would inspire higher VPIP's from players who won the previous hand, but not how or why it would lead to making adjustments in our pre-flop strat if we didn't win the last hand, other than possibly making lighter calls or lighter 3B's versus the winner of the previous hand.
This would appear to be a scenario in which we absolutely should ignore the fact that the game is on, unless we won the previous hand, or we're involved in a pot with the winner of the previous hand. Otherwise, the bounty should have no bearing on our decisions.