1/3 effective stack $700

CO opens $15. younger guy, could be fairly wide, not sure. fish sb calls. i call QJo BB. pre could be a 3 bet or fold spot but SB is sticky and i dont know about CO so i just flatted it.

Flop QJ4 rainbow, sb checks, i check, sb bets $50 (more than pot) which looks strong to me. sb folds. because CO looked strong i CR 4x his bet to $200. he looks frustrated and calls. I put him on AA or KK.

turn T rainbow.

shove knowing he could fold? or milk $250 bet to GII on the river? what is more +EV? this is a math problem but i dont know how to do the math.

bonus q: what if the turn was a total brick like a 3?

I fold this pre, think this hand is to easily dominated when we hit and we don't have sootedness to sex it up. I'm fast playing this hand OTT.

Against a CO open, I think calling and the occasional squeeze are fine.

If you want to milk it, go minimum 300 on turn to maximise EV, he’ll occasionally have hands like QK & AQ that might peel as well.

What’s your image at the table like? If villain has seen you bluff a few pots recently then it’s a slam dunk jam.


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If you were going to “string him along,” you should have just called the flop. As played, if there is no chance you will fold, shove now.

Milk what? Even if we have his range 100% nailed down he has 11 outs to improve. Should be thinking about charging draws or verify if he can't have AK here.

EDIT: At least 11. If he has KK he has 15.

Nothing to string here. You made top 2 and if you're beat, you're beat. GII and don't look back

I would fold preflop.

I would actually just call the flop and I'm not even too terribly excited about that. This is how people play overpears nowadays, just blasting off for overbets? And admittedly I have my super nit image to deal with, but anyone with half a clue is going to be able to get away from one pair hands when I check/raise two pears, so I typically play them very passively. It's possible you may be able to get away with this... so long as your image isn't equal to your handle.

Pretty terrible turn card as now a frustrated AK (overs + gutshot) gets there; and if he doesn't have it, it's not out-of-the-question that we might (thus limiting our value against one pear hands). Plus it's possible we were behind on the flop. But thanks to the raised pot / raised flop, we only have a little over a PSB left. Are we feeling committed? I'm guessing we are. I'd probably bet small setting up the river commitment as I think a shove here will often fold worse. ETA: I kinda missed how many outs KK/AA have, but I guess I just don't put opponent on AA/KK enough here due to the PSB+ on the flop deep (i.e. most players are super MUBSy and don't want to play for big stacks with big bets with one pear, but that's my experience).

But I think we've overplayed both early streets.

ETA: FWIW, I don't believe getting it in bad with top two is remotely a cooler at this stack depth, it's just mostly bad. We only got in 2% of our stack preflop, the SPR is a huge 15 and multiway, and he can easily have a bunch of better hands. He would need to be a super special guy in the line for me to want to be working towards stacks postflop, imo.

GbutI'malsoagiannitG