I played the following hand at $1/$3 last night, made a big fold, and kind of regretted it.

I just sat down to analyse the situation a bit using PokerStove.

If we assume that in this spot, he jams [77,55-44,Ac5c,Ac2c,87s,75s,75o] then my equity is roughly 52.875%, which suggests that calling is the best play here even after the massive $15 rake is factored in. My equity goes up if he's also doing this with some raw flush draws, and it goes wayyy up if he's doing this with overpairs like 88-JJ. It goes down a lot if he's also doing this with 66. Additionally, my equity goes down a lot if he only jams his bluffs here 50% of the time, while jamming his value hands 100% of the time.

Anyway, just wondering what ye all would have done here, and your experiences are with people jamming the flop like this? Specifically, what percentage of the time is this jam a bona fide value bet in your experience?

10% rake $15 cap on a 1/3 game? Your mistake was sitting down in the first place, game probably isn't beatable.

Generally huge flop overbets like that are more likely to be semi-bluffs than made hands. At 1/3, you'll also find it sometimes as a "go away" bet by a vulnerable overpair on a wet board. For effective stacks of 100bbs or less, I'm pretty much never folding a set to this action, even if the board had been monotone. Even against straights and flushes, a set has a ton of re-draw equity.

If you have no reads on HJ, I think it's a mistake to include 75o in his range. You would have to know that he is extremely loose pre-flop to include every combo of that hand in his range. Even 75s would be a very loose call given stacks, the opening raise size, and the rake.

Even if I did think my opponent had 75o pure in this spot, I don't think I would ever fold. If he has 75o, he also probably has hands like 46o (you didn't even include 46s in his range). He also is probably capable of overplaying one-pair hands and maybe even making spewy bluffs with draws. 33 just way too strong to fold. At this stack depth (less than 100bb), without very accurate reads, you basically don't ever have to worry about folding sets.

Probably some sort of combo draw. As mentioned above, most of the time these big overbet jams aren't nutted hands. People tend to worry about losing out on value and don't shovel money in like that.

I'm almost never folding a set for 100bb or less with no further action to go after.


And as mentioned, if he has hands like 75o or 52o.....he has all kinds of other **** like pair and straight draws he would likely try this with.

I think you have to question the decision to call pre if you are going to fold here

Yikes @ $15 maximum rake, good luck with that.

Preflop is a little meh. We're getting about ~18+:1 IO and will have position, and a call might invite along the blinds (the more the merrier when we're setmining). But facing a late open means they often will end up with nothing (which means they won't pay us off if they hit). Plus smaller pairs have RIO. It's probably borderline but personally I'd like another caller or two.

SPR is 5 and board is super drawy. If we've been outflopped, that's a matter or preflop's RIO. So we're committed for stacks, imo. Readless I think we just have to snap this off. This is a fairly massive overbet, and while sometimes that will be a better hand attempting to protect against the draws, it can also easily be a draw itself or a tricky played overpair or overplayed two pear, etc.

ETA: Unlike others, I think we can easily fold sets postflop in 100bb spots so long as the pot is limped and the SPR is huge (ex. 5way limped with $300 stacks the SPR will be a massive 20 where we should seriously consider folding bottom sets to huge postflop action). However, in small SPR pots (and 5 is fairly small) we should almost never fold sets. Risk versus reward, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Interesting contrast with the current $1-3 AA hand on this forum -- I'd violate my own (actually Ed Miller's) maxim about paying off big bets, but only because this flop overbet is so wacky. An obvious contrast with that other hand is, here it's the big flop overbet that makes no sense for any modal population read, whereas there it's strange action leading up to a 2/3 pot river shove.

Anyway 33 is about the bottom of my look-him-up range here, maybe 64 (especially of spades). 43 feels too vulnerable if I somehow end up here with it. LJ raised preflop so if you're worried about minimum defense frequency -- which shouldn't be a huge concern at these stakes -- you have an accomplice to play sheriff.

regardless of what to do on the flop, i think pre is a pretty big mistake given rake / open size / stacks. as played obviously you never fold your hand

I kinda forgot to factor that in and shouldn't have; with a rake this large, we should hardly play any hands at all, especially a speculative one to a raise non-deep.

GcluelesshorrificrakenoobG

Not sure I've ever folded a set on the flop; perhaps that's a leak, but I doubt a big one.

I'm a huge Ed Miller fan (best writer on Poker imo), and its generally a great maxim. He does (at least in The Course), emphasize this as more on the Turn and River than the flop.

i think even w 0 rake theres basically no hands you want to be overcalling a 5x open with an 80 bb stack (not closing the action!) unless one of the players is world class bad. either 3b or fold here imo

I can conceive of scenarios in which I fold a flopped set but this is not one of them. I've seen way too many shenanigans to even think about folding here.

This is a fist pump money printing high five the dealer call. I am very happy to have this action in front of me. The few hands that are better than ours don’t usually rip in a massive overbet. I would expect to be slightly ahead of big draws a lot and sometimes have them in bad shape.

I would need some extreme reads (OMC) to consider folding.

Personally, I'd call and then leave regardless and probably get myself banned for openly calling out the horrible rake in a way that the entire room hears. Just horrible.

It's 1/3 and people do many dumb things. You ask them to explain what they did afterwards and they get angry.

An overbet like that can often be someone with a made hand worrying about a flush or straight and spazzing out. Does a straight really want people to fold or does it want you to call.

Ultimately what YOU do is really up to and how much variance you want. Though, you're losing anyways if you play at that place. What card house/casino is it?

It's Crown Melbourne.

Yes, the rake is just horrible.

They get away with it because they're tight with the local government and enjoy a monopoly on cash poker in the state of Victoria.

It's beatable though. Out of the last 7 times I've attended, I've come away with profit 6 times. You just have to tolerate a lot of boredom and make a few hero-folds here and there. Flat or limp with nuttish hands like suited aces and pocket pairs, and play aggressive with hands AK, AQ, etc. Also, the moment someone reraises you, it's time to exploitatively fold the **** out of top-pair.