I played the following hand at $1/$3 last night, made a big fold, and kind of regretted it.
Quote:
Effective stack size: About $250
Rake: 10%
Maximum rake: $15
I have no reads on either of my opponents, since both of them just sat down.
Dealt 3h-3d on the BTN.
LJ raises to $15.
HJ calls.
BTN calls (that's me).
Flop comes 3s-4c-6c. There's $49 in the middle.
LJ bets $25.
HJ jams for about $250.
BTN tanks for awhile and folds (that's me).
LJ folds.
HJ shows an 8 before mucking (and it wasn't the 8 of clubs).
I just sat down to analyse the situation a bit using PokerStove.
If we assume that in this spot, he jams [77,55-44,Ac5c,Ac2c,87s,75s,75o] then my equity is roughly 52.875%, which suggests that calling is the best play here even after the massive $15 rake is factored in. My equity goes up if he's also doing this with some raw flush draws, and it goes wayyy up if he's doing this with overpairs like 88-JJ. It goes down a lot if he's also doing this with
66. Additionally, my equity goes down a lot if he only jams his bluffs here 50% of the time, while jamming his value hands 100% of the time.
Anyway, just wondering what ye all would have done here, and your experiences are with people jamming the flop like this? Specifically, what percentage of the time is this jam a bona fide value bet in your experience?