Join Date: May 2023
Posts: 2,521
I don't like c-betting QT on 853rb because that's a flop that doesn't really smash our range as the PFR, if we spike a Q or T our top pair might not be best, and we'd need to go runner-runner to improve to a straight or top 2.
Even if we pick up equity on the turn with a J or 9, if it also brings in the BDFD, it could compel opponents to bet / raise their own hands for value and protection, making it hard for us to continue to the river and expect to get paid if we make our draw. Even if there's no BDFD, we could be up against J8 or 98 that improved to top two.
I like c-betting 99 on Q74rb because that's a flop that isn't bad for our range, our pair needs some protection, and we can deny a lot of equity from over-cards, draws, and worse pairs. It's unlikely we'll improve, but if we do somehow make a set, it'll be the effective nuts. Otherwise, there just aren't enough safe cards for me to want to play poker on later streets.
Neither hand is a situation where I'd want to play a big pot. With QT, I'm just playing pot control and trying to realize equity. With 99, I'm just trying to take it down on the flop with a big bet.
Hand 1, obviously you should fold to the check-raise. In hand 2, I might call the min-raise and see what V does on the turn. If he checks back, I'm probably turning my hand into a bluff on most river cards, assuming we don't improve to a set.
My reasoning for calling with the intent to turn 99 into a bluff is A) eff him and his stupid min-raise, and B) what the hell is he repping there, when he flat called your pre-flop raise next to act, and now he's min-clicking you next to act on this dry as toast board? Q7? 74? 65? What's his plan for the turn? Jam? Awesome. Let him. Easy fold then.