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Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn?

09-16-2024 , 04:39 PM
1/2 nl, $500 buy-in. The villain was one of those guys with sunglasses and backpack and all that. At this point I don't know much about how he plays except I see him 3-betting preflop a lot. Shortly before this hand, I had 4-bet him pre and he folded. It may have been getting a little competitive between us but only mildly.

Now the hand. Some people limp. Hero has Ac3c on the BTN, raises to $15. Villain in SB 3-bets to $60. Hero calls.

Flop:
2c, 4s, 6h

Villain c-bets $45. Hero calls

Turn:
2h

Villain checks.

At this point I had put him on an ace high broadway hand. Villain has about $240 behind which is a little over pot size and I feel like I want to fold out those ace high hands that beat me, and if my read is wrong I still have the gutshot and maybe a few other outs depending on what he has. What do you think? Go all in, give up, evaluate the river? I'm pretty sure everyone is gonna say to fold pre regardless which I think I agree.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-16-2024 , 05:16 PM
I think you have to push here.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-16-2024 , 09:04 PM
Fold preflop. A3s is way behind SB’s 3bet range.

You have enough equity to call the flop, but the passive line invites trouble. You can win only by outdrawing V. What was your plan if V bet an A on the turn or river?

On the turn, you have just 22 percent equity against V’s SB’s 3b range. I’m checking it down.

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 22.2% 20.0% 4.33% [Ac3c]
Player 2: 77.8% 75.7% 4.33% {99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo}

Board: 2c 4s 6h 2h
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-16-2024 , 09:20 PM
Calling preflop is fine if villain has an identifiable postflop leak that you can exploit. The most common is cbetting too much/for the wrong sizing, which appears to be the case here.

The turn is not great since it removes 3 combos of boats, but it helps that you are the only one who should have boats here.

Either jam now or check turn and jam river.

I would personally check turn then jam river because if I flopped a set that is now I would play it. We also don't want to get jammed off our equity, which is why I would xb with flushdraws here and only bet small with hands I don't mind folding.

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Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-17-2024 , 07:38 PM
So I did jam, and the guy went into the tank. I know this is weird but about 20 seconds in I really started sensing that the tank was just an act, that he had already decided to call a long time ago. Sure enough, he does call.

The river is another 2, draw bricks out, and he wins with AQo. I had my Garret Adelstein face on for a minute. Pretty crazy. My read was right and I think you fold out better ace high in 95% of cases but, yeah. Best and worst call ever.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-17-2024 , 07:48 PM
Well, you learned he's just another poser who sucks at poker.

I still like the push.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-17-2024 , 08:07 PM
Fold to 3!.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-17-2024 , 08:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by deuceblocker
Fold to 3!.
Yea
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-18-2024 , 01:39 AM
I'm sorry, but raising the turn is a bit ambitious. You aren't repping any connection with the board, and are maybe targeting a tiny sliver of his 3 betting range as FE.

Too thin, imo.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-19-2024 , 06:24 PM
PRE - Depending on the eff stacks to start the hand, I think I mostly 4B or fold here, but mostly just fold, and occasionally mix in a call, because IP and deep, or whatever.

FLOP - As played pre, looks like V is just range-betting, but his size is kinda large. I think we can float, and see what he does, but I'm not loving it. Occasionally I'll raise here, because this board isn't likely to favor his 3B'ing range, but it's not like it's fantastic for our range either, so, yeah, only raising occasionally.

TURN - He's not likely to fold anything to a single bet, and he's not likely to fold if we check turn and then try to bluff the river, so with $210 in the pot, I might bet $60, with a plan to fold if he raises, and possibly jam river.

I'd be wondering if he has a hand like A5s, that is currently ahead, but will be chopping on any 4, 6, or higher. That's kind of what this looks like, so I could go see just checking back, with a plan to fold to a bet on most rivers, or bet if he checks again.

I dunno. His turn check looks weak, but the board isn't great for us to rep much in the way of value, and he could just be pot-controlling with some over-pair. I don't think our bluffs are going to get through here often enough, and I think we've got just enough showdown value to check back and see what he does on the river.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 02:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tramboi
So I did jam, and the guy went into the tank. I know this is weird but about 20 seconds in I really started sensing that the tank was just an act, that he had already decided to call a long time ago. Sure enough, he does call.

The river is another 2, draw bricks out, and he wins with AQo. I had my Garret Adelstein face on for a minute. Pretty crazy. My read was right and I think you fold out better ace high in 95% of cases but, yeah. Best and worst call ever.
Im guessing you gave off a read. I bet you snap jammed turn.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 03:34 AM
This is a terrible board to bluff at we’re repping nothing for value. We’re repping “I have 99 and don’t want you to river an overcard” which doesn’t make sense since V still has all of TT-AA. I like villains call well played.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 07:08 AM
interesting one. i dont look at <100 bb really ever so they're fun to solve.

is hard to find super comparable sim, looks like at high rake u want to fold pre (both in 50 and 75 bb solves) even as the button opener, and you're supposed to be tighter here than that considerably pre bc of limps. i actually think your hand is fine to just overlimp with

anyways tricky sim to look at but 50bb stacks which at least mimics turn spr after this sizing otf, ip really never jams, instead prefers to play 2 street game mostly using 1/3 pot which i think looks more credible irl anyways. interestingly aq nearly pure calls vs jam if it xs in 500nl rake, he actually calls worse ace highs good amount. i think saying blah blah he sucks or bad call is just lack of range awareness. ip is almost always calling anything w bdfd vs this size otf given that he will always have 2 overcards and also ace high nearly never folds. is tricky cuz i am sure op not playing like equilibrium and is gonna depend on which sim u look at but 50bb / 500z rake, IP only has a pair 25% of the time ott. in practice op not playing pairs aggro enough pre or otf but still. this isn't a spot where its outrageous to call off ace high

i see ip using some small raises otf vs small cbet but not with this type of hand (which makes sense, super awkward and waste of equity if u get jammed on)

preferred line here looks like x back turn and try to show down on a brickish runout. idea i guess is you have some ev vs his suited broadway / king high regions and also block folds.
jamming turn or river here looks like a large blunder ev wise compared to x (small bet ott smaller ev error). dunno if thats super useful for u, if you think his pre range is too strong for u to show this down unimproved the implication would be you need to fold pre.

pre is honestly not intuitive at all for smaller stack sizes. u can make argument you guys are "deep" here because its 1/2 but once you open to 15 and he 3bets to 60, what your response should be changes dramatically from average 1/2 360$ eff hand or even just most 100bb sims.

seems like u mostly took him playing TAG personally if i had to guess

Last edited by submersible; 09-21-2024 at 07:30 AM.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 07:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adonson
Fold preflop. A3s is way behind SB’s 3bet range.

You have enough equity to call the flop, but the passive line invites trouble. You can win only by outdrawing V. What was your plan if V bet an A on the turn or river?

On the turn, you have just 22 percent equity against V’s SB’s 3b range. I’m checking it down.

(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 22.2% 20.0% 4.33% [Ac3c]
Player 2: 77.8% 75.7% 4.33% {99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo}

Board: 2c 4s 6h 2h
the issue with approaching postflop like this is
a) you dont have villain's actual hand in the range and v description doesn't make it seem like hes under 3betting here (large chunks of weaker part of his range are missing)
b) the way you're looking at equity is problematic bc it implies he cbets entire range otf and checks entire range ott when in practice he's going to have more air that checks the turn and less made hands (bc his overpairs probably bet for the most part)
c) it doesn't really matter if we have an equity disadvantage when we have a (potential) bluffing combo

Last edited by submersible; 09-21-2024 at 07:20 AM.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 11:41 AM
Those of you who are saying we can’t ever have value and so Villain’s call is good: our bluffs include hands like 65 and 55 and maybe 33.

By the way, with the described Villain in the SB I would overlimp or fold this hand preflop the first time unless you are willing to 4bet Villain when he 3bets you, which he will be doing with every hand he is playing.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
Those of you who are saying we can’t ever have value and so Villain’s call is good: our bluffs include hands like 65 and 55 and maybe 33.

By the way, with the described Villain in the SB I would overlimp or fold this hand preflop the first time unless you are willing to 4bet Villain when he 3bets you, which he will be doing with every hand he is playing.
these are all value bets lol.

it should be pretty obvious from a logical standpoint: what better hand than 65 or even 33 do you think sb 3bets that is going to fold here
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 01:28 PM
I never said the bluff had to be successful to count as a bluff. But if we jam 55, we are not doing so hoping for a call from ace high, we’re doing so hoping Villain can fold a hand like 88 or 99 probably. (Or we just check back way more than Hero is doing in the hand.)
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 01:37 PM
Bet small turn. Shove river.

Shoving turn does seem fishy. Why would want to go all in with 99? Risking 100bb to deny 6 outs to ak?
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-21-2024 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon
I never said the bluff had to be successful to count as a bluff. But if we jam 55, we are not doing so hoping for a call from ace high, we’re doing so hoping Villain can fold a hand like 88 or 99 probably. (Or we just check back way more than Hero is doing in the hand.)
idk really what this means but it doesn't matter. if u bet the turn small with these hands they will all call off vs xshove at this spr and if you jam you are going to get called by ace highs an overwhelming amount of the time in the solver, as well as anything better. if you think people are folding better than 65 here with any kind of regularity or frequency (i think the number is 0%) idk what to tell you, i think you're wrong.

i dont really get how u can say our bluffs include x hands so v sucks but they don't actually have to be successful bluffs because we could be praying that he folds better

like idk v made a pretty sick call in a spot where hero probably way weighted towards bluffs and everyone just want to sit here and say lol he sucks with not much evidence or logic bc they dont understand the spot

Last edited by submersible; 09-21-2024 at 02:06 PM.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-22-2024 , 11:02 AM
Agree with sub. Id be very wary to say someone sucks when they made the correct move in the hand. You dont know why he called, and so any criticism of the logic he used to make the correct move is mostly just strawman.

My first instinct in a spot like this is go ask if theres anything I did wrong? Did i expose my hand? Did I give off a tell? How was my timing? Have I been bluffing too much?
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-22-2024 , 11:19 AM
I also agree with Sub. Hero isn't repping much for value here, so fair play to V for making the correct call.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-23-2024 , 02:02 AM
Fold to 3b pre. Your iso range should be pretty strong, so his 3b range should be pretty strong.

As played I think small bet or check on turn are fine. How he plays vs small bet gets you a better idea of if you can jam river to get him to fold. A lot of your value on turn probably wants to bet small, like quarter pot. You want value and protection against hands like AK if you have a hand like 88. And you don't need to bomb turn if you have a boat.

Imagine if villain check jams when you bet small, he probably just has an overpair. So I think betting small on the turn to get more information is good.

I think villain is leveling himself into a call because there are draws out there like hearts and not a ton of hands that you have for value that want to take this line.

I do think a lot of the population is folding better A high so I don't hate the play, it is probably winning. But I think betting small or checking is going to be a higher ev play. I think hands that have hearts as well like Ah3h, Ah5h, 8h7h, make better jam candidates. You don't need as many folds when your equity is higher. And you might take that line with your best overpairs with no hearts, like TT, maybe JJ. But mainly I think we just want to bet small with our value on the turn.

Last edited by Mlark; 09-23-2024 at 02:20 AM.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote
09-23-2024 , 02:11 AM
ITT hero who calls 3bets with dominated trash criticizes villain who outplayed him with a predictably stronger hand.

Shoving turn is pretty terrible imo.
Should I try to bluff this spot on the turn? Quote

      
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