1/2 nl $250 eff

Villain in BB is college kid, pretty solid but I think he calls just a little too much.
Hero on button is playing fairly tight, but probably looks like a spewtard having lost at showdown twice with TPGK. (Both times I was heads up with weak players and a drawy board, and wound up value-pwning myself.)

Hand:

Checks around to hero on BTN with ATo
Raise $12
Villain in BB calls. Everyone else folds.
Heads up, pot $25

Flop comes K84
BB checks
Hero bets $20
Villain thinks for a minute, then calls.
Pot $65

Turn is a 5.
Villain checks.

Hmm. Do I give him the other barrel?

I'm pretty sure he would have 3-bet AA, KK or AK pre-flop. I think he wouldn't likely call 76 pf or c/c with it on the flop. I think JJ, QQ, maybe even AQ are in his calling range given the circumstances. Certainly KQ, KJ, KT, 88, and 44 are all in his range.

Pokersniper says I've got something like 13% PE, which is about what I figured at the time. So I need, what, about 45% fold equity to make a pot-sized bet worthwhile? That hesitation and the c/c on the flop looked pretty weak to me. Sheesh it's close.

Bet less flop.
Bet turn.
Give up non Ace river.

Thats if you two/three barelled your TPGK previously.

I usually give up on these boards because the turn is a decent runout for Kx... maybe this is a leak though. With that being said, the fact that you vbet thin with TPGK makes me think you get a lot of folds from everything <KJ.

Do you think you get folds from 77 or 66? Perhaps TT/99? If he has a set you will know after a turn bet. Me thinks a turn barrel is marginally +ev if hes not that sticky with pair+gutters (i.e.) 66-77. Some players will look u up with the 66-77 and less with the TT-JJ because they have "more outs"

Yeah, I think so. I don't see him hanging on for a gutshot, and I haven't given him reason to think I'm betting air (yet).

Has $12 been a standard open? If not, you look to be representing JJ, TT, 99? Possibly AJ slim possibility of AK, that's probably more like an $8 raise if it were me. Off chance you're holding AA but a significantly higher chance that he has a medium pair. You're definitely not repping a set with this action. With the PF raise, you don't have 2p. Smaller OTF, you're mostly running off air if the kid is reasonably solid. He probably has QQ and if you're image is spewy, he'll call down anything except a sizable overbet IMO.

I'm not sure about ranging him on JJ, QQ, AQ here. Your description of Villain suggests he's likely to 3-bet these. So, you're left with a lot of Kx, sets and pp, only the last of which are folding to a second barrel. On a wetter board, I'm firing again, but prefer shutting down on this occasion. Ask yourself How often is a triple barrel going to win here? This will give you an idea of your FE.

I usually give up here, but when he tanks for so long otf it makes me want to take kx out of his range.

your Cbet is to big

If you do barrel is has to be 3 streets IMO so he folds KJ KTs type bs

maybe leak of mine but that's how I feel

If we bet this we need to fire the river too.

Given our image I give up.

If turn was a Q I'd barrel.

I give up here, but if i decided to barrel through, I'll definitely trip barrel KQ, KJ k10 will have a hard time calling.

You've answered your own question in this paragraph, especially the part in bold. I'm finding that a leak of many 1/2 players is they still think unabated aggression wins pots....even after they've valuetowned themselves multiple times. LEARN THE LESSON! Many players tend to call, not fold. You've indicated you have one here that leans towards calling. Give up because he ain't.

Now, for confirmation, look at your board. I don't know that it helped anyone, or changed their minds.

I always cbet this board, too, but wonder if we should with such little equity as ATo? Villain has already seen us barrel TPGK twice and lose. I wonder if we shouldn't run a delayed cbet here? If you pick up equity, then bet the turn. We pick up equity with A, T, Q, J here. That's 14 cards. If I have a tighter image and feel I'm getting respect, I cbet this flop and fire the 2nd barrel when the broadway card falls. If no card falls that improves me, I don't 2 barrel because the board was so dry, I doubt villain is calling the first bet with anything we beat. But, here, it doesn't feel like we are going to get much respect.

I would probably barrel $40 OTT. His tank seems weak and I think you can rep a King here pretty easily. I'm shutting down on river if called.

That's what I was thinking.

This guy likes to see the turn card, and is sharp enough to know a cbet when he sees one. But if I'd have really thought about it at the time, I wouldn't have given him more than 30% likelihood of folding.

Even if we take JJ, QQ and AQ out of his range, and add K8, PE is 11% which isn't that far from my estimate at the table (12%). So lessee: .3*.88 is like .26, plus .12 is .38. Not enough. Shoulda done the math.

I did put out a pot-size bet on the turn and he check-raised . Needless to say, I got the heck outa there.

I appreciate the comments on bet sizing.


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Oh well. I've spent more to learn less. My second marriage comes to mind.

You guys are the best.

Great. Post.

This puts words to what's been bugging the crap out of me about that hand.

I'm tatooing this on my forearm. Thank you.

I think you were going to get a good clue about the strength of his hand with a turn bet, and I think its a fine play. No one is c/calling, c/calling sets here. Villain has 44/88 everytime here. Villain looking pained and weak on the flop is either, "I have a medium ppair or a set" the turn action should indicate which one it is surely, as the board is getting wetter he's done slowplaying or he's folding all his marginal crap