2 limps, Hero raise to 12
SB cold calls (pot ~ 30)
BB rips for ~ 70 & we all fold
not very happy playing for flips vs this pool. But general strategy vs shortys ? At the room I play in the 1/2 tables are full of this, at least 2 players are short less than 50bb. I’ve been playing more 2/5 & it’s better “standard” poker but the 1/2 pool in south FL is insane so I enjoy participating in it
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this room is raking the pot preflop so I was curious how this variable interacts with our 3bet frequency & opening ranges. Optimal style of play ?
Reads matter a ton in this spot. It could go from a snap re-jam to isolate to a snap fold.
As for pre-flop rake, it probably doesn't matter too much, given how loose the players in south FL are, but there is less incentive to steal, so even more to play solid hands that play well multi-way and to 3-bet for value only.
That’s a snap rejam. You opened BTN. Shorty could be jamming very wide in BB. In BB I’d be jamming as wide as AJo,KQo, ATs, 88+. I’ve seen loose gamble players in my game show up as wide as QJo here.
I understand if you don’t want to flip. That said if we assume that we have a coin flip against BBs range and SB folds against our 4bet, leaves roughly 10BB in EV on the table. That’s a very high price for not wanting to flip.
I didn’t want to flip pre because I believe I can get in a better spot. But I had this feeling that this may have been one of the best spots & it was a mistake.
in a closed system sure I want to rejam here for max EV. But I’m not playing millions of hands to smooth my variance. I’m playing maybe a couple hundred once a week & it changed the spot for me
I understand this is flawed thinking theory side & variance should be ignored while we focus on maximizing EV.
But in reality I save myself 30 bigs & fight another day because I’m getting paid off on my value hands regardless
I understand if you don’t want to flip. That said if we assume that we have a coin flip against BBs range and SB folds against our 4bet, leaves roughly 10BB in EV on the table. That’s a very high price for not wanting to flip.
can you show me how you calculated the lost EV ? excellent post
Super standard rejam spot. You aren't flipping (ie you are way ahead of AJ, AT, KQ, QJ, etc) a decent amount of the time and only need to have 38% equity. You are losing money folding here
I didn’t want to flip pre because I believe I can get in a better spot
If you have a solid bankroll, this is a serious mental leak. This is cash, you can take the slight +EV spots and the fat +EV spots. It's not like a tournament where you are done if you lose a flip. You just reload and keep making sklansky bucks.
Passing on +EV spots to "wait for a better spot" may be the most common leak I see among thinking players.
But this particular one is still read dependent, including BB's player profile, SB's, and both of their likely images of you.
But in reality I save myself 30 bigs & fight another day because I’m getting paid off on my value hands regardless
Did you? Prove it.
Getting paid on other value hands shouldn't affect your decision here. It is +EV or it isn't. You can only say you saved 30 BB if you can show a call/shove was -30 EV, which you have not.
The only thing you can definitively prove is that the fold was - 6 BB.
AQ is near the top of your button range. If you aren't going to defend with it, then what?
