Game is $2-$100 spread, which is actually important here.

Villain is an old Asian man. Does not seem good. We played heads-up for a while and he had to tank before calling my 10BB bluff on the River when he had KJ on a KJ636 board. (He min-raised pre, I called. Flop went xx, turn I check-called a 3BB bet, River I led out for 10BB.)

Anyway the hand:

4-handed. $1-$2 blinds. Villain min-raises on Button to $4. I’m in the SB with QcTc and 3-bet to $16. BB folds, Villain calls.

Flop: 7c3c2h (Pot: $30)

I’ve flopped a flush draw on a board unlikely to hit his range. I play it fast and bey $20. He calls. I think his range for calling is going to be too pair, maybe some 44-66, possibly some 88-TT (though I think he’d raise those), some flush draws (obviously discounted cuz I have clubs), wheel draws, along with traps (sets, AA/KK).

Turn: 7c3c2h Td (Pot: $70)

Well now I have too pair to go with it.

Based on my previous assumptions about his range, I assume I have the best hand most of the time, and if I’m beat I have a lot of outs. I decide to make my hand *look* a little bluffy by betting ~the pot—I think he might be more likely to look me up with his A7/99 hands because he’s seen from our heads-up play that my big bets are bluffs. (And also, I’d have bet huge on the Turn if it had been a Jack, to continue the bluff.)

So I bet $60. And he raises MAX to $160. I have a simple math decision here and call. (After the call I have $150 left in my stack and Villain covers.)

River: 7c3c2h Td 8h (Pot: $390)

I check. Villain bets $100. I call.

_________

Thoughts on each street?

Not a fan of the three bet. He is raising. He didnÂ’t even lead out with Top two last hand. Believe him that he is min raising for value and call.

Id lead flop for $15 as played.

If I had flat called pre I would likely check call flop. He is representing a pair with anybet and will not be folding to the raise. The 80% of time you whiff the turn you will thank yourself. If he checks flop you can bet the turn large even when you miss. From last hand and population read,Im classifying this player as OMC until he does something to tell me different.

As played, Im betting $100 on the turn to put on maximum pressure. I think you are still behind half the time but a massive bet will get OMCs to fold JJ or QQ or AdXd on the turn probably 3/4 of the time. I would not exclude any hand from this guy even AA. Some OMCs love to slowplay those preflop. $100 overbet might get 10 or 20% of OMCs with AAor KK to fold.

OMC bets $100 on river. Generally there is no way you are good 1 out of 5 times. He never shows up here with Ahigh unless it is a busted flush draw. And that is the only hand you beat. Does he have that 1 out of 5 times. No chance. The only counter tothat I can think of is you have been posting lots of hands recently. You play very aggressively and some OMCs will fight back by doing things out of character with complete air if they think it is egregious enough and need totake a stand.

Super standard pre. Flop should prob be downbet to force him to have to defend a bunch of garbage hands he prob doesn't wanna defend. Prefer a downbet on turn, you have the board locked up pretty well so you don't need much protection and a huge portion of his range that you have crushed likely folds to too much turn pressure. If he hadn't raised, this is prob a good spot to downbet all 3 streets and win max vs hands like 55 or 67s. Standard call on turn vs the raise, river should also be a call but lowkey idk if this player type ever has a worse hand here. Expect to see a lot of JJ-KK imo.

I don't mind pre and flop, but I probably fold to his turn raise. I might have gone a little smaller on the turn, too. I think we need to hit to be good. I mean, if you plan to check/call the river, why not just raise now? I definitely fold river. Maybe you have more info than you gave, but the older guys, especially Asian, who I play with can beat a T.

In what sense do you think your turn call is a “simple math decision”? You are getting immediate odds of 2.9:1. Your absolute maximum odds are 4.4:1, but probably more like 3.9:1. Meanwhile you have some reverse implied odds too. This is the exact opposite of an easy math decision, to me.

I’d be cautious calling raises from guys who tank about cheap standard calls.

Fair chance he flopped a set, turned a set, or rarely has JJ and waited for board to run out a bit and feel better about his pair.

Also fair chance you’re giving him too much credit to take notice of “looking like a bluff.” Not too many at live low stakes pay close attention to much besides their cards. And there’s a more than fair chance you are actually bluffing here on the turn.

I think the decision point comes on the turn. If I call the turn, I'm usually calling the river with this betting structure and that pot size.

We have no outs to the nuts on the turn. 9 clubs probably help. 2 tens and 3 queens MAY help. I fold the turn to this villain, but I'm a nit.

If you are concerned about queens and tens not helping—which I think is right—you also have to take away the board-pairing club as something that helps, too.

In my estimation we have 8 outs that give us the best hand for sure—I have no fear of a better flush draw—and 6 more that might help but might also cause us to lose more. I am folding in a spread limit game for this sizing. The fact that OP called unimproved on the river speaks to even more reverse implied odds than just catching a false out.

Result:

You just gave villain too much credit. I used to see this all the time when I played in Vegas. European internet players would come to town and assume that everyone was a good, thinking poker player. They'd wind up burning through $1,000s by making advanced logical plays against simple, straightforward players.

Some players literally never adjust. You could show this villain a big bet bluff 10 hands in a row. The 11th time you bet big, he's going to assume you have the nuts.

Nope you’re exactly right. In the moment I didn’t actually think much beyond “well it’s like 3 to 1 on a call and I have too pair and a flush draw” but if I had thought about it some more…..

My biggest leak right now is that I call $100 River bets light. Every ****ing time. And I know exactly why: I make $100 River bluffs all the time so I assume Villains are making them too….but they NEVER are. I’m like 3 for 30 in spots like this—I’m always like “gee, I only have second pair, but I block the straight and unblock his flush draws, I guess I call, oh, what’s that, you have a Full House again?”

Trying to get better but it’s HARD! (Especially hard when—not to brag—I’m smashing the game so much at the moment.)

There's no bigger games?

No. We are strangled by the $100 max-bet law in our state. There’s a $5-$100 Omaha game that plays much bigger (there’s no cap on the buyin), but:

1) it’s essentially just a $50-$100 Limit game (and I haven’t studied Limit strategies), and

2) it’s Omaha (and I haven’t studied that at ALL)

Respect your opponent. You said he "does not seem good" yet in both hands he seems to have made the decisions that maximized his value from the hand given you as the opponent.. Hard to tell from the limited sample whether this was fortunate on his part or did he exploit you and you have yet to realize he was actively doing it. And has been pointed out even if you believe they are a bad player it is more useful to think in terms of why you consider them to be bad. Different weaknesses lead to different play on your part.

The variance Omaha is supposed to be pretty absurd.

AZ? Pretty crazy that you can walk into any store any buy a gun but the government controls the sizes of your bets in poker.

OP has said he plays in a state that I used to play in. There are no bigger games other than specific casinos at specific times, unless the state closed those loopholes. (I have played 2/5 and 5/10 in the state where OP plays.)

OP, you’re not bragging. You’re admitting you should be crushing the game for even more. For example, folding the turn in this hand saves you $200. If your win rate is $20/hour, the correct decision in this hand would have been worth 10 hours of play. TEN HOURS. If it’s less, then that’s even more time. To me these big decisions are best viewed that way: how many hours of play at my observed win rate did this $200 decision cost me?

3 and a half

I’m so humble!

I don’t want to turn this into something that gets moved to WB&F but unless I am reading that wrong that is a tiny sample size. Unless you can start learning to avoid most LAGs’ big weakness—leveling yourself into paying off—that win rate will come down eventually.