Live 2/5.

Villain is waiting for a spot in the bigger $5/10NL game.
I've seen villain playing 10/20NL and bigger. All the dealers and floor know the villain by name.
Villain is a good skilled LAG smart very aggressive player.

I've played briefly with the villain before.

I've been playing TAG. The table is loose passive. Lots of limping preflop and very bad postflop play. The villain has seen me take down a couple of $100 pots without a showdown. The villain has been pushing the table around has quickly (I assume outplayed the table to) put her initial $500 up to $730.

Red QQ in MP ($900),

1 limper.

I raise to $30, (this is the standard raise at this table)

Good player ($730) in BB calls, limper folds.

Flop Td 8c 3s

Checked to me.

I bet $30, Good player flat calls.

Turn Jd (Td 8c 3s),

Checked to me.
I bet $60.

Good player check raises $210 with $460 behind. (I cover).

What do you do?

Baluga theorem dictates that double queen is no good here, but since you seem to stress that she's some kind of poker wizard I guess flatting here wouldn't be terrible if you think she'll play T9s or 8d7d this way. Her sizing and resultant SPR seems to indicate though that she's going for a river value-shove rather than a bluff-shove.

Other problem with flatting is we really just have no idea what the hell to do on most rivers. A river diamond I think she'd be most likely to be bluffing, like a Kd. If a Q or 7 or J comes and she shoves I'd think she'd be bluffing just about never, but either way I would personally just be very unhappy on most rivers to be shoved on.

Lot of sets in her range here, maybe 2 two pairs, and 1 or 2 str's. AK may be there also. Could be a float OTF and of course the turn card was good for her. The one thing I have noticed about women though is that they dont spew too much money. Generally when they bet strong they have a good piece of it. She basically bet a I am committed bet. It's up to you if you want to gamble against her range, but I wouldn't blame you if you folded. (maybe you can give a little better insight on her OOP flatting range?) (also need some math wizards itt.)

Why did you make your postflop bets so small?

Anyhow, given the stack sizes and the villian's skill and trickiness I think the turn would be a good spot to check behind.

As played I think I either fold or shove but I suck at poker so don't ask me which.

Fantastic card for her to crai as she can rep a ton of hands that beat u (and ur hand is face up... overpair or overcards/air.) U have to fold (and she knows this) because she is shoving every river. She may have 'it,' she may have a draw or she may have shyt... It's a great bet, avoid her!

I'd bet $50 on the flop, and check back the turn, and prob call down some good safe rivers, personally.

When you check back the turn, this keeps her 1 pair hands and bluffs/air in the pot, and allows you to control the pot overall because you're in position. She might bet some of those hands on the river because you checked back the turn and you can call down if the river is a safe card in relation to the board texture.

Remember, 2 streets of value is good, and you should try to play good lags straight up and take away their opportunity to put you in a tough spot, which they'll often do because they're good.

As played, I'm folding here on the turn.... because she's jamming the rest of her stack on the river, and I wouldn't call a shove from her on the river, so thats why I just give it up on the turn.

This.

You bet $30 into a $90 pot on the flop. $60 into $150 on the turn.

Villains raise to $210 is exactly pot sized. You didnt define you hand on the flop, so we are kind of lost in this spot.

Villain could very likely have flat called with two pair, or floated with a naked J or T given your bet size.

Check behind on turn.

Yea you didnt come close to getting any information with the best you have made. you have to bet a lot more on the flop, at least in the 50-60 range. Then you bet weak again on the turn, basically begging her to take the pot away from you. I think I call and call most river bets.

Theres actually $67 OTF.. he bet half. But yes, bet a bit more... I would of put fiddy-five out there.

Actually it's $30 into a $67 pot on the flop

And a $127 pot on the turn.
I think the villain may be a better player and a better hand reader than me.

Playing against a good thinking player you can't let them read your hand.

You're not playing against some idiot 2/5 player who doesn't read hands.

In this situation I like to let my position do more of the work and not rely on my bet sizes to define her and my hands. This is why I'm betting 40% to half pot. It tells her very little about my hand.

If thats the case then this is an easy snap shove right? You are under repping your hand purposely.

She thinks you're bluffing and missed with AK/AQ/KQ. She has a pair of jacks - or a draw of some kind. Shove, and enjoy your pot.
It's possible she has Q9 or a higher pocket pair, but that's a risk you need to be willing to take. She plays those hands the exact same way as she would play AJ,AQ, or some other jack.

I'm not saying the (standard) $50 flop bet/turn check line is bad. I considered it. But I chose to bet half pot to avoid defining my hand on purpose. BTW, I use the bet the flop check the turn line a lot.


I think she reads hands really well and I didn't want to give her more information. In return it makes reading her hand harder to play. But I expect her to make her hand hard to read anyways — That's what good players do ☺

This was my first reaction to her turn CR.

Bet more on flop. If she's really good then she might be like "lol he make it so cheap for me to float on the flop and bluff the turn if its a good bluff card, lol donk"

Check turn, and call/bet river. Why did you bet the turn????

This. I def check this back on the turn. We get value from her JX hands and she can bluff the river with random hands where we can snap it off.

bet closer to pot on the flop. i like checking the turn here and calling a river bet/value betting river.

as played im folding. if hes good like you say, were never getting 3 streets of value anyway so just check back the turn and get value from the river/control the pot.

versus a fish though were always betting this turn obv. but in this spot versus a competent player i like controlling the pot on the turn and checking.

I like how you've played this. Like you said, you're against a smart player, you're in position and you haven't defined your hand. You've just run into a tough board. I don't think she has a set here or she'd checkraise or bet out on the flop. Maybe has 2 pair/straight or of course can be semi bluffing. I call here in position and see the river and see what she'll do. Of course a scare card can hit, but it can be just as much a scare card for her as for you, letting you showdown for cheap.

She is shoving the river 100% of the time

Absolutely, I'd be super shocked if she didn't ship the stack on the river.

If she is a good hand reader.
And she is playing down a level or two.
She is probably not expecting you to fold in this case.

I am not exactly sure how your games play - but my impression is that pot controlling turns is generally the rule in low-limit NL live games. When you barrell the turn you are generally pretty strong.

If she was to apply pressure to your range.
She is more likely to do it in position rather than OOP.
She is prolly more likely to do it with semi-bluffs OOP on the flop than on the turn.
She would need to have more reads to believe that you could fold to pressure.

So whilst it is true that more often you have one pair that sets or two pairs - and she might very well know this. There is no reason for her to believe that you would fold AA on this board.

I would keep my bet-sizing basement vs this villian at half pot.

Finally - you should include if you have history with her.

Just basically saying what everyone else has said in the thread. Your not getting 3 streets of value against as good as villian as your describing, therefore check back turn, call river bet, or bet river if checked to.

as played i fold. I would chk back turn though.

If you're villain and you're supersick reading Hero for one-pair do you overbet shove river...?

Never try to bluff Villians off the over-pair.

I only take them to value town with better.