Aria 5/10nl 9-handed

Villain is a young kid who's very capable of stuff. He's been 3betting a good amount, not necessarily out of line, but he's made a few 3bets in fairly obvious 3betting spots, and this would be one of those spots, so I assume his range is fairly wide. Postflop he's still capable of stuff but he's not stupid.

My image is pretty nitty. I've been pot controlling a lot, and Villain was needling me a bit for missing a value bet so he's noticed. But I'm still a 20-something and people generally assume I'm capable.

He has ~3350 and I cover.

Preflop: I have TT and position on everyone.
There's a limp, young pro makes it 40, Villain makes it 160, dude cold-calls, I call, limper folds, raiser calls.

Flop (675): J T 3
Raiser checks, Villain bets 480, dude folds, action is on me.

Best way to play the flop? Including my 480 the pot will be about 1600 with about 2700 behind. The original raiser is still behind me with ~3k stack.

Hmm, interesting spot.

Villain's range is probably JJ+; AJ, AQ, AK, with 1 club; some flushes, and maybee JT. I think we are doing good vs this range and a raise is required. I think he will get it in with gutshot and flush draw, maybe even overpair and flush draw. We just need to raise for value, and never fold.

I make it 1250.

Is the small raise because you still have original raiser to act? If so fold to jam or turn club? This is an interesting spot considering your image and stack sizes. If you can assume that villian is never calling (always fold or stuff) why not peel and see if villian barrells? I suppose original raiser makes it a little harder, but there shouldn't be too many hands in his overcalling range. As played I am raising to 1500 and snapping to any and all jams.

Don't know how deep the first raiser is, and how deep hero is, but it's very unlikely we are folding. The smaller raise is so that villain still thinks he has fold equity and ships something like gutshot + flush draw.

It's setting up to be a pretty ugly spot but a) you're obviously too deep to raise/get it in and be happy about it and b) folding is clearly out of the question (not sure either really merits a lot of discussion but maybe I'm the minority), so...

Call. Next?

Stack sizes are listed in the OP. Original raiser has ~3k, villain has ~3300 and I cover everyone.

I think legitimate cases can be made for calling, raising small, raising larger, and shipping.

Calling > raising, it allows him to keep barreling with a wider range of hands and you can still get another bet out of something like red QQ or KK whereas those would reluctantly fold to a flop raise.

I also think it's a little optimistic to think villain would re-shove any hand that isn't JJ/a made flush or a hand with the Ac in it, people tend to be pretty cautious about jamming 300bb without at least something really good.

Well yeah, I don't think anyone is expecting him to get it in lighter than that except maybe red AA.

And yes, it's 300bb, but it's also a 4-way 3-bet bloater. It's not that hard to get stacks in, and I fully expect him to stack off any AK/AQ/AJ/AA/KK/QQ with a club hand if I raise the flop.

I'm inclined to disagree, but if you can construct a perceived raising range on this flop in a multi-way 3bet pot that villain would put us on with these stacksizes that allows him to re-ship QQc and KKc I'll definitely reconsider.

Not that I'm accusing you of thinking this way, but I think way too many people just default to 'zomg I only lose to a flopped flush which are rare and I really don't want another club to come, I raise' rather than thinking about how their raise will look and how villain will respond with the hands we beat or have crushed.

Board: Jc Tc 3c

Hand 0: 37.612% { QcQd }
Hand 1: 62.388% { JJ-TT, AcKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQs }

If I jammed he would need something like 38% equity.

Board: Jc Tc 3c

Hand 0: 41.077% { AcKs }
Hand 1: 58.923% { QcQd, QcQh, QcQs, JJ-TT }

Point being, I don't think he's folding any of the aforementioned hands to a jam. Pretty much any player is going to do rough calculations, realize they probably have to call even with QQc even if they're not thrilled about it, and come to the general conclusion that "bet/folding QQc here is probably miserable so I call."

Edit: That doesn't make raising/jamming best because I think there's a strong argument for calling. I'm just saying he's not hero folding any QQc+/Ac hands.

I'd kinda love to hear the argument for B and C.

If you're going to raise, I just don't see how anything but shipping can make sense given what the pot and SPR are going to look like going to the turn. You don't actually think you can induce with a small raise do you? Or get Villain to call and then c/f a naked Ac or KK with a c or whatever on the turn?

Anyway.... Calling>>Shipping as best I can tell. Obviously you're never folding unless another club or maybe A/K/Q roll off on the turn (in which case you can do so pretty happily if Villain doesn't slow down), whereas by calling the flop and then getting it in on a clean turn, you're getting Villain to put the bulk of his money in in a much worse spot (a huge chunk of his range goes from being in decent shape vs your range to in terrible shape with 1 card to come). If he checks the turn you can charge him to see the river or prevent him from realizing his equity, which is also nice.

Call in position.

I would call here in position, wait for a blank and shove turn after he bets at least $800. This gives you the chance to allow him to spew with very bad hands too like an over pair with no club. I think raising flop has little value because you are either getting in barely ahead or allowing him to get away easy.

Results

I pondered a bit between jamming and calling and decided to jam. Unfortunately he snapped with AcKc, but we ran it twice and chopped.

In hindsight, after thinking about the hand and talking it over with some very good players, the consensus is that calling is best for reasons already mentioned. Although it's not like jamming is terrible. Against certain opponents, a small (possibly even min) raise could work wonders, as it could induce a big mistake such as calling or possibly even jamming a non-club overpair. I think this particular opponent was smart enough to avoid that mistake though, so flatting was best.

Thanks for the comments all.

I like calling the flop best, especially if you think he won't stack off on the flop with a nonclubbed overpair, but will on a blank. He isn't getting the right odds to call a jam with a gutter/club draw, but if you think he will bet a blank turn, your equity doubles and you are in position.

Agree on call here. Might as well win the monies from two players, plus there is a small chance that a fourth club OTT will make original raiser donk-lead or whatever and you get to play close to perfectly.

IMO a small raise is not going to induce anything that wasn't getting it all in anyway.

This begs the question

Is villian ever folding AAc, AcK, AcQ, KcK, QcQ, to a raise? To a min-raise? To a shove?