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Set mining with 33 Set mining with 33

03-22-2024 , 09:15 AM
1/2 9-handed

Typical table of mostly loose/passive fish with little 3betting and not much aggression.

V: YWG (BTN, covers) one of the better players at the table. Aggressive, gambles when short (called a pre-flop 3bet to $50 from a tight player vs another tight player w/ QJ (he had already called the first bet), flop TKX, OR bets, V shoves $160, and hits his straight vs KK and AA), runs another game that plays bigger. I play PLO with him, too. He does have a tell of acting weak when he is strong.

H: MAWW (MP, $400) had to rebuy for $300 but have won a few pots. V has about $150 of my first buy-in on a hand I played horribly but didn’t show, so they don’t know what I had. If I had remembered his tell, I would not have lost the money Tight, aggressive – raises and 3bets more than anyone. Usually a winner in this game.

Couple of limpers, and I limp w/ 33, HJ limps, and V makes it $40. This is a huge raise for this game, so I think he’s just trying to buy it. Folds to me and I call. I think HJ is going to come along – he plays almost every hand, even for a raise (23 soooted for $20), but he folds.

Flop (~$80) 236 rainbow. Hero? Lead? Check/raise/shove? Check/call?
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 09:20 AM
The call was really bad. 10 to 1 is 400 which is all you have, I would optimally like to have 20 preferably at least but that's just me.

Since we got lucky otf I would check to the raiser and call unless he bets ultra small.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Playbig2000
The call was really bad.
It was a bad call, but I really thought he was weak and that the drooler to might left would come along giving me better odds if I hit.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 10:09 AM
Fold pre, as you know

Flop: V can be pretty wide from the BTN. I'd be inclined to check with the intent of raising a small bet and calling anything 1/2 PSB and larger.

H has range advantage on this flop so I suspect V will be checking back a lot of his range here. I think V will bet his vulnerable mid pairs and his A-wheel combos.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 10:14 AM
Weird spot.

If you check-raise this board, I'd think he'd over-fold. He might even over-fold if you donk.

What does our range look like when we limp-call his huge raise? I think it looks like small-middling pairs and middling SC's. This flop smacks that range pretty hard, and would seem to have completely missed his.

I don't love it, but I think the best approach is to check-call flop, and check-raise turn, or lead turn if he checks back flop. Probably need to bet small on turn if you lead.

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Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 10:23 AM
As played cr huge if he’s very Kk/Aa heavy given huge overbet pre
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 11:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
It was a bad call, but I really thought he was weak and that the drooler to might left would come along giving me better odds if I hit.
ok but you still need IO's to work out (money still has to go in post flop like does he chase and call light, etc.) but most importantly you should know what happens to people when they assume : O
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 12:55 PM
How likely is villain to bet?

Xr is a highly exploitative line, so unless we are confident i like a lead of 45-60.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
It was a bad call, but I really thought he was weak and that the drooler to might left would come along giving me better odds if I hit.
I see your point about wanting the drooler to come along, and pay you off too should you spike a 3, but wouldn't 3b be better this shallow, if main V is probably raising with trash? We're OOP.

Now that we've caught a flop our range should like much more than V, what about check raising here? Or c/c something small works too, depending.

Aargh. Didn't see that we actually caught our set, lol. (Thought we just had a GS for some reason.) Yeah, c/r is pushing it.

80, with 360 back. We can get the monies in on turn and river, right?

Last edited by Nh,gg.; 03-22-2024 at 02:08 PM.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 02:08 PM
Fold pre to the raise, but you know that anyway.

My default is check/call here, but it's highly dependent on player and baralleing frequency.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grimstard
As played cr huge if he’s very Kk/Aa heavy given huge overbet pre
Most definitely not this.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 02:43 PM
Fold pf. Check call flop. Check call turn. CR River.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 04:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grimstard
As played cr huge if he’s very Kk/Aa heavy given huge overbet pre
Don't need to do this because we are shallow enough to gii with 3 sort of normal bets. Board is also too dry to x/r. If it was 345 with 2 of a suit, then maybe.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 04:38 PM
Hard to believe that villain isn’t going to bomb the pot with whatever presumably strong hand and I’m not thrilled about giving a free card tbh he’s got but wtf do I know
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 09:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Fold pf. Check call flop. Check call turn. CR River.
Yeah, that's ideal, but also kinda assumes a triple barrell
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
It was a bad call, but I really thought he was weak and that the drooler to might left would come along giving me better odds if I hit.
Him being weak is bad for you, not good.

For example, if you knew he had AA 100% of the time, calling is better for you than if he has an assortment of trash--because when you hit you will now win his stack a lot.

Him being weak preflop actually isn't good for your prospects postflop. Now you will have a mixture of being blown off the best hand, and not stacking your opponent when you do hit (not to mention that you will sometimes get stacks in against hands that are more live to beat you than just 2 outs).

Think about it this way. If he has JJ in this spot 100% of the time, and he stacks off to you every time you flop a 3 and he flops an overpair, you STILL can't call because he'll have an overcard to his jacks come out too often for you to win his stack. 100% JJ is too weak of a range to justify your set mine.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-22-2024 , 10:29 PM
Pretty clear preflop fold HU. I don't mind calling if the fish had already called. Good situation with better immediate odds, set mining against a strong range and a fish with a wide range.

It seems like a fold though with the huge open, there is too good a chance no one else will call.

In general, playing against a like KK+ or JJ+/AK (say if an OMC 3-bet) with a small pp like 4-ways in very profitable, but usually not playable HU.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-23-2024 , 07:07 AM
this hand is a great example:

even if we hit, which we did. now we face how to get stacks in OOP and with V holding very little if anything.

I check/call flop
check/call turn
river is depends on flop-turn bet sizes if V even bet both these
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-23-2024 , 07:30 AM
Crai on turn, there won’t be any stacks left to check raise on river.

He’s going to cbet this board 100%.

And holy crap fold pre.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 10:54 AM
Yep, should have folded pre.

And now I think I did the worst thing possible. I checked, he bet $100, and I shoved. He sigh folded. In my mind I was thinking, "If he's weak, he could have hit some of this, so I want the money to go in before a scare card comes." However, I probably should have just called to see what the turn brought. He folded, saying he had TT, but I'm not sure I believe him.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 02:06 PM
If you flat-called flop, you're probably checking turn, with no guarantee he'll bet again. If the turn checks through, you'll have to donk-lead river, and odds are good he'll fold if he hasn't improved, especially if the board runs out scary.

If you were deeper to start the hand, maybe you could min-click it here, and then make milky smallish value bets on turn and river, giving him too good a price to fold. The problem is you're only starting the hand with $400, and only had $360 left going to the flop. It's going to look silly-strong if you raise to $200 on the flop, leaving yourself only $160 behind.

Otherwise, maybe you can flat call flop, and check-raise turn, but again, that assumes he even bets the turn when you flat call his flop c-bet.

If you flat call, the pot will be $436 with $260 left, so even if he checks back turn, we can jam river from up front, and he'll have to call on a lot of the safer run-outs.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 02:34 PM
I don't think we get to realize our equity with these low pocket pairs that well in 3bet pots (multiway especially) because we're more likely to lose to set over set. I think you can just fold this one comfortably pre, let him go nuts and stack him when you pick up some premiums. As played on this board I don't see any reason to do anything other than call down all streets
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 02:55 PM
I fold pre. Unless I'm BTN or CO and the game is over 1k effective and then maaaybe. 33 is just not worth it imo...I'd rather 3-bet it HU actually.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 02:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
Yep, should have folded pre.

And now I think I did the worst thing possible. I checked, he bet $100, and I shoved. He sigh folded. In my mind I was thinking, "If he's weak, he could have hit some of this, so I want the money to go in before a scare card comes." However, I probably should have just called to see what the turn brought. He folded, saying he had TT, but I'm not sure I believe him.
If he has TT-AA he is likely to jam turn cause it looks like you have 88. If he has AK we need him to hit something anyways, and if we raise he might hero fold.

I don’t think your raise is that bad when he bets over pot both pre and flop. I just think we capture more when we call.
Set mining with 33 Quote
03-24-2024 , 06:49 PM
Heads up you shouldn't have any leads on flop vs PFR.

Only turn can you sometimes lead.


This spot is a no brainer check

you can check raise or check call - both are fine.
Set mining with 33 Quote

      
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