Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
OK, so you bet and/or raise more before the river. Are you doing this to blindly avoid giving villains good odds, or are you planning the hand to both protect it and get stacks in?
Both but more the second. When I flop a set of kings I wanna GII we all do so now its time to plan. On the flop we are going to need a raise to get to less then 1 PSR before the river. On the turn the villain makes the mistake of making a blocking bet with his draw. This is a perfect opportunity for us to get maximum value and play our hand correct.
My biggest worry before the turn donk bet would be:
1) am I every getting three streets of value all in
2) what am I going to do if the flush draw closes (not the BDFD)
IE as played if we get to the river with 200 behind and 300 in the middle what are we going to do if a heart falls and villain bets all in for $200? What about when the diamond falls? what about when a QJT fall to fill the gutters. It wasn't mentioned but the 6 is a sick card because now a 2-5-7 can make straights on the river to suited connectors. So my play would be to get as much money in ahead on the turn and also making it easier to get it all in on the river when villain checks. With $200 behind it's going to be hard to get worse hands to call on the river (when we don't make a house and are left with a set).
Now remove the donk bet. with $100 in the middle we can maybe cbet $60-$70. This is going to be an even tougher spot then how the hand played out. If we cbet and villain calls again then there is $220 in the middle and $240 behind. with a little more then a PSB on the river how often can we GII on the river good? I really am just using this example to show how the turn donk opens up the hand for us to play it better IMO.
Bet 125 instead of 100. Now we are giving our villain 100 to win 500 which is break even. Now I basically have no problem GII on the river because it's now 1/2 PSB ($175 behind $350 in the middle) and I would expect the villain to either bluff most rivers and we have a great bluff catching hand, and we can raise all river all in because our hand crushes villain bluff catching range.
It was a really good hand and had some sick board texture, to not think hard about the situation and chalk it up to a BDFD cooler is doing it an injustice. The bet sizing is a small leak but it can make a huge difference on the BBs we plan on winning in the long run. Most player think far enough ahead to give their opponents a bad price (they are thinking in terms of now) with out thinking about the implied (or reverse implied odds). In this hand our reverse implied odds are sick, we are basically always going broke unless villain bets less than all in. When our reverse implied odds are terrible we should either fold (NEVER AN OPTION WITH THE NUTS NLHE IMO) or get in as much money now and reduce the implied odds. This would be different if we had like 4 PSB but since we can get it under one and to half I think not getting it there is a huge miss..
Sorry that ended up being longer then I thought