Quote:
Originally Posted by adonson
Results
Hero calls. V shows Qs8s.
I obviously regret not folding. I made the smaller bets because I was greedy. I thought, facing a half-pot bet, V might call the turn with AJ+ and suited spades. What do you think about this shoving range for V, with semi-bluffs like A8 because V puts hero on AK and AQ?
Board: As3s8hJc6s
Hero 50.00% { AdAh }
Villain 50.00% { 88, 33, A8s, A3s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ks8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AKo, AJo }
This is the second time I've seen you ask a question like this, about what range we're giving V. I'm not sure why. We can't do this sort of calc in game, so I'm guessing you're trying to figure out a range for V that would support your in-game decision?
Just like before, I'll give you the same answer. I'm not trying to figure out every hand a V may have in his range when I'm in-game, in spots where V's holding is likely to be very specific.
Right on the flop, I'd be narrowing his continue range to 88, 33, and flush draws, and I'd be expecting 88/33 to raise, when the board is two-tone.
If we want to get more specific, we can give him every nut flush draw combo, every Broadway combo, and every combo with an 8 or a BD wheel draw, but how many and which flush draw combos he has doesn't change my approach to how I play flop, turn, and river, especially not when the flush comes in.
I'd be betting big, 2/3 pot, starting from the flop. My reasoning is that opponents love to chase their draws at low stakes, and it'll become increasingly harder to extract value from opponents on each street, unless and until they make their hand, so we want to get as much value as we can, as soon as we can.
If you want to be greedy, I'm fine going 1/3 pot on flop, and full pot or even an over-bet on turn. We must charge flush draws the max to see the river.
I don't think V has many, if any bluffs on this run-out, when you raise pre, and go bet-bet-bet, and he jams over top on the river. I don't think he's playing A3, A8, or J8 this way. The only over-plays I'd even consider giving him would be 86s, and that's being very optimistic.
It may be worth mentioning - when we're doing the betting, so long as we're using a bet size that is close to "normal", the fact that we're continuing to bet tells our opponents more about our hand strength than the specific sizing we use.
So, going 1/2, 1/2, 1/2 doesn't necessarily indicate less strength than 2/3, 2/3, 2/3. V might just think you're being greedy or making a mistake with a smaller sizing on earlier streets. But if he understands odds, he should understand you're giving him a good price to chase.
That said, when you do take a smaller sizing, like 1/2 instead of 2/3, I'd think you could conceivably have some flushes here, so his worse value hands like 86 would just be bluff-catchers. He shouldn't turn those into bluffs by jamming with them.
In game, I'd be thinking V has a flush >90% of the time, and is bluffing or over-playing a worse value hand <10% of the time.