Quote:
Originally Posted by docvail
So... because we torched $275 so far, we have to light the last $345 on fire?
V's continue range on the flop is almost entirely flush draws that get there on the river. He has no bluffs here, and we beat nothing he'd raise for value, except possibly 86dd or 86cc that got sticky on the turn and made 2P on the river.
Calling in the hopes V is raising worse for value or as a bluff is spew.
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H has put 375 in at this point. Starting from 620, H now has 245 back. AP, H needed to c/f or b/f smaller on river to get away from this. It's futile to jam and expect V to fold a small flush, right? Especially when they hung around this long, trying to draw to it.
AP, it's 245 to call off (401 + 445 + 200) = we need 19%. Can we find 1 bluff for every 4 flush combos that V called down with? At first, I thought of course, so call, but not sure at this point. Much of Vs non-flush value (JJ/88/33/ 66? 86??) is going to bluff catch the river, not shove.
EDIT: to adonson's shoving range a post or two up, V doesn't 3b Ako in the HJ vs UTG+1 open? Though, I would expect AQ to be in that range, so I don't think it changes much.
Call pf, then calling ~1/2-ish pot bets flop and turn doesn't exclude everything from V's range but premium Aces and flush draws. Which is one reason I find it hard not to call, only needing 19%.
Last edited by Nh,gg.; 05-14-2024 at 10:10 AM.