2/5

V (covers) is mostly calling station. Over five orbits, he has played at least half his hands. With a pair of eights, he called down a big river bluff. He has made one big river bluff himself and showed his cards. He opened once T9o in the HJ.

Hero (620) has a TAG image.

OTTH

Hero in UTG+1 open raises to 20 with AhAd. V in HJ calls. CO, SB, and BB call. Five-way

Flop (91 after rake): As3s8h

Check, check, hero bets 55. V calls. Everyone else folds.

Turn (201): Jc

Hero bets 100. V calls.

River (401): 6s

Hero?

I would probably b/c around 255 but you would be the best judge since you know him better than anyone here itt. When he bluffed the river did a FD complete then? I hate checking hoping he bluffs only to watch him check back. We have about a psb left so I don't see us folding if he does raise (again depending on what types of bluffs he's shown so far).

Once we got heads up on the turn I would bet a little bigger. On the river the only real draw he has got there. This is just a judgment call I think. I would be looking at him when the river fell. Did he react to the spade any different than the other streets? Does he look confident or nervous? I would be using any of this info to make a decision. Probably looking to check call the river unless he is showing something to me that makes me want to fold.

Turn bet is too small—we want to set up an easy pot-size shove on the River (instead of the overbet your $100 Turn bet has left you with). If you bet $175 on this Turn, you’d be able to shove $375 into $550 no sweat, even on the spade.

As played, I don’t think we can really play for stacks now. Block-bet $130 then make a nitty fold because no one ever bluffs the River at low-stakes?

I would bet bigger on the turn with 2 flush draws out there. I would check/reevaluate probably call the river.

I GET your thinking on the Turn: “I have top set, I block his top pair hands so he’s probably weak, I don’t wanna bet too much to scare him off.”

But what you should be thinking is “he called the flop with 3 players to act behind him AND he’s a fish, what’s the best way to get him to put all his chips in the middle?”

id bet the flop smaller and the turn bigger.

most of the time id say block bet here, but with the obvious flush coming in i dont see what worse hands call even vs a calling station. i would actually check the river and fold to a big bet and call a small/medium bet.

this is def true but he already showed he can make big river bluffs

It’s so hard to find a bluff-shove at these stakes after we block-bet. AxQs/AxTs would just call (what rec is smart enough to turn them into bluffs?)…I guess maybe something like 5h4h or Th9h or QhTh? But holy **** those are ambitious calls on the flop with 3 guys to act after you!

Bet the turn way bigger. It's a pretty big mistake particularly vs the player type you're up against.

As played can probably bet small or check.

I don't see much air, just KQo with a spade and maybe Th9h or 54s/52s/42s so checking feels bad even though they're bluffy

I think it's a trivial shove with 88/33 even AJ, but the blocker effect are huge here especially vs a station so probably block-fold

There's a massive difference between weak players bluff raising or just betting river. If their big bluff was a raise and they used a potential bluff catcher it's an easy block-call, but I think that's fairly rare for fish

i would need a hand history for his previous bluff to see if it makes sense or not.

PRE - I understand that it's 2/5, where the opens might be 15 or 20, but if you're in a game with even one loose-weak player, other opponents will want to over-call whenever he's involved, so I'd be raising bigger, at least $25 or even $30, because we'll be OOP, and probably multi-way no matter what we do.

FLOP - With the loose cannon in the pot, I don't mind c-betting bigger, even when we're multi-way. We're OOP on an ace-high, two-tone flop. Other than 88/33, the only hands we can target for value are going to be flush draws. We don't want to give them good odds to chase and try to stack us. I'd probably c-bet 2/3 pot.

TURN - OMG this is such an awesome card. AP to this point, I'd be bombing this turn, to set up the river jam. At least 2/3 pot. But if we took larger sizing pre and on flop, we could just jam it in here and pray he calls.

RIVER - The flush came in. He might have it. He might not. I'd rather check to him and pray he jams as a bluff or with worse value than jam from up front and pray he calls with worse value. We're never folding to this clown, obviously, but we'll feel pretty dumb if he did river the flush after only betting 1/2 pot on flop and turn.

As a general rule - I don't like 1/2 pot bets unless we're using them in spots where we'd otherwise use a smaller bet size, but we're sizing up because of stack depth or opponent tendencies. We shouldn't be using 1/2 pot sizing when we should be using a larger size. It's sometimes just a small mistake on the flop, but usually a big mistake on the turn.

I don't like getting cute with big yet vulnerable hands, especially against loose opponents capable of showing up with all sorts of dumbf**kery, and most definitely not when we're multi-way and / or OOP. If this guy can find a fold with 8X on the flop or JX on the turn, which seems unlikely, I'm okay taking the pot down even without getting his last $200.

If I'm hero and I let this guy draw to a flush I'm going to want to throw myself off a bridge.

I agree, but since he's already made a "big river bluff", I wouldn't put it past him to bluff raise as well if he thinks we're weak.

“He bluffed once he could be bluffing again” is only the tiniest step above “sixes are HOT tonight!” in terms of fish logic.

Next inflection

River (401): 6s

Hero bets 200. V jams. Hero?

(I regret not betting more on the turn. )

you have to call you are getting crazy odds and maybe hes just spazzing. but the previous bet sizings did you in.

i dont understand your river bet sizing either. why did you bet 1/2 pot?

additional note:

im not one for preflop LRRing like GG, but if you are on a short roll and buying in short like you are here i think this is a good spot for it. it makes decisions easier when you are trying to adjust to a new level. the goal when you are starting out is to reduce the SPR to 2-3 so that you dont have to think much - just bet 2/3 pot in the flop and jam turn almost always.

Don’t think it much matters either way. I’d fold because it’s extremely hard to find even the small percentage of bluffs we’d need V to have here. AxQs/AxTs (but what LLSNL player is turning those into bluffs?) or something like 5h4h or Th9h or QhTh (but those are awfully loose flop calls even here).

Fold.

Seriously, though, with the 1/2 pot bet sizes. Why?

What does $200 do here that $150 won't, if we're planning to bet-fold? How often is JX calling $200 but folding if we bet $250?

Under no circumstance can you fold river as played. Ive seen good players fold in spots just like this and the fish show T8 or some other nonsense bc the pot is so big and they know they never win at showdown so they figure might as well raise. Pot odds are too good for us to fold this now.

100%. Your sizes are so goofy here!

So... because we torched $275 so far, we have to light the last $345 on fire?

V's continue range on the flop is almost entirely flush draws that get there on the river. He has no bluffs here, and we beat nothing he'd raise for value, except possibly 86dd or 86cc that got sticky on the turn and made 2P on the river.

Calling in the hopes V is raising worse for value or as a bluff is spew.

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Results

Hero calls. V shows Qs8s.

I obviously regret not folding. I made the smaller bets because I was greedy. I thought, facing a half-pot bet, V might call the turn with AJ+ and suited spades. What do you think about this shoving range for V, with semi-bluffs like A8 because V puts hero on AK and AQ?

Board: As3s8hJc6s
Hero 50.00% { AdAh }
Villain 50.00% { 88, 33, A8s, A3s, KsQs, KsJs, QsJs, KsTs, QsTs, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ks8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, AKo, AJo }

It has nothing to do with me thinking like a fish. MOST random regs don't even have any river bluffs in them. Seeing someone do it once can definitely suggest he's capable of doing it again.

H has put 375 in at this point. Starting from 620, H now has 245 back. AP, H needed to c/f or b/f smaller on river to get away from this. It's futile to jam and expect V to fold a small flush, right? Especially when they hung around this long, trying to draw to it.

AP, it's 245 to call off (401 + 445 + 200) = we need 19%. Can we find 1 bluff for every 4 flush combos that V called down with? At first, I thought of course, so call, but not sure at this point. Much of Vs non-flush value (JJ/88/33/ 66? 86??) is going to bluff catch the river, not shove.

EDIT: to adonson's shoving range a post or two up, V doesn't 3b Ako in the HJ vs UTG+1 open? Though, I would expect AQ to be in that range, so I don't think it changes much.
Call pf, then calling ~1/2-ish pot bets flop and turn doesn't exclude everything from V's range but premium Aces and flush draws. Which is one reason I find it hard not to call, only needing 19%.