Let's say you've been playing at a 1/3 table (up to 100bb BI) where most of the players are weak passive and you've seen quite a bit of bad play. You're stuck for about 2-3 BI's playing 1/3 (~750). You aren't tilted because you've been getting it in good. (think 80-90% favorite).
Most of the table has been swapping out due to dinner break, and replaced with new players.
Preflop
You (hero) have about $550 in front and are young looking asian guy (late 20s) with sunglasses on. A younger asian lady (V1 - early 20s) sits down with $200, and first hand in, raises to $12 UTG in a effective 7-handed table.
Hero is UTG+2 is holding KK and raises to $35. Folds back to V1, who flats.
Flop
Flop: 8 52r (Pot - $69)
V1 donks all-in for $188.
How many of you are happy to get it in with a snap call vs fold?
What do you signify the donk as? Does it make calling more trivial? Is this an obvious stack off spot every time sans a specific tell/read which we know is nearly unpossible first hand?
Does this change if V1 is sitting behind 100BB's instead of just 66BB?
With no specific info on villain such as prior history playing with her.....I don't think you can fold here. We really have no idea what her shoving range is. Could be anything from 99+ to sets, to something like A8s.
Sets and overpairs. Mostly overpairs. The overbet says "That's a good flop for me but I hate every turn and river so I'm going to put my money in now so I don't have to think about that".
Since the board is bone-dry, she can't be afraid of a draw completing, so it must be overs to her pocket pair. Of which there must be many, to shove that much. Which would suggest 99-JJ to be most likely. Not to say there is zero chance villain plays a set like this but I think an overpair is at least 50% likely.
I don't know if I could find the balls to call that at the table but sitting in my comfy computer chair a call certainly seems right.
The question in these spots is not "what does villain have".
That is how rec fish play the game. They try to soul read their villains for the exact two cards they have...
The question we as +EV players should ask is WHAT CAN VILLAIN HAVE.
And against an unknown, we more or less apply a generic template to the unknown. Since we are talking 1/3nl that will include a wide range of donks, rec fish, aggros, and gamboolers as well as ABC players, TAGs, and LAGs.
So, what can villain have?
Given that V raised from UTG and then called your 3bet I think we can put V's range as: 88-AA, AK, AQ, KQs pre
Looking at her flop shove, I think we can still keep her range fairly wide as 88-AA, AK, AQ
against this range, KK is a super easy snap call for under 100bb.
i would tilt if i was stuck 3 BI and got it in as a 80-90% favourite all the time.
anyway, dont put people on hand ranges. decide what he has from the beginning and stick with it the whole way, like this guy:
I remember a few years ago, I played 1/2 a lot and I'd see this crap and it would always be sets.
people at low stakes will never have draws or bluffs here. 99% of players are not rolled for the game so many are scared shytless of losing and most will put you on AK/KK+ after you 3bet. If they had like 99-JJ they will "put you on AK" and check/call 3 streets. With sets they donk ship.
however, its still really hard to fold for like 60 bigs... and there is always the spazz factor.
I remember a few years ago, I played 1/2 a lot and I'd see this crap and it would always be sets.
Disagree.
This is the type of spot where you have to be totally results orientated and which is pretty **** until you get a decent number of hours under your belt.
Basically my experience of this spot is that we´ll run into a set a decent % of the time, but not anything like 50%.
Plenty 99-QQ in there and obviously rarer AA and KK and 8x hands..
There is an entire breed of LLSNL players that regards ANY preflop raise or 3bet as AK and they will think NOTHING of stacking off 100bb with ANY PAIR on any non ace non king flop because "I put you on AK".
I would argue that you'd encounter MORE of those situations in this spot than flopped sets.
This is a super easy stack off for under 70bb AINEC. Seriously, entertaining thoughts of actually folding KK in this spot vs an unknown is beyond nitty Mcnitty scared money. Seriously, if you even for a second entertain the thought of folding KK in this spot, then you shouldn't play poker.
Super easy stack off spot for 66 BBs, IMO. QQ-99 could all think they are golden here, plus the chopping KK. If she has AA, whatever, nice hand. And it's only for $200 in a 1/3 game; players will ship very loosely with these type of stack sizes.
As soon as it gets >= 100 BBs, it probably gets trickier. 100+ BB stacks simply don't go into the middle as fast, and facing a 3bet preflop she has to be worried that we have what it looks like we have. Tougher spot, IMO.
Okay... given stack sizes in this hand, then yeah its probably a stack-off.
What I meant was that I remember a couple instances in 1/2 games where I'd raise to like 15 pre with KK+, get a caller, flop comes : 852r. We would be like $400 effective and the guy would just donk ship all in. It was top set both times.... but sample size is <5. (I mucked, villains showed)
This is a super easy stack off for under 70bb AINEC. Seriously, entertaining thoughts of actually folding KK in this spot vs an unknown is beyond nitty Mcnitty scared money. Seriously, if you even for a second entertain the thought of folding KK in this spot, then you shouldn't play poker.
I never mentioned im folding here. Im just curious what a good rule of thumb is. If the player is 100bb+ behind, do you still stack off?
There has to be some sort of threshold.
The reason for my post is that it seems really illogical for players holding a pair to have the the lets overbet the pot mentality. They are only folding out worse....almost.
Don't expect logical plays from the average low stakes player. It is not logical for the villain to shove ANYTHING in this spot; by doing so she has already told you she is a bad player.
I never mentioned im folding here. Im just curious what a good rule of thumb is. If the player is 100bb+ behind, do you still stack off?
There has to be some sort of threshold.
The reason for my post is that it seems really illogical for players holding a pair to have the the lets overbet the pot mentality. They are only folding out worse....almost.
The threshold is totally player dependent. I've called a $375 shove into a $75 pot at 1/2 with KK and my hand was good (until the river).
