i agree, and that is generally the problem with a lot of places.

even as we start to open the country back up - whenever that is - all the employees that were shut down aren't going to come back because some businesses (1) did not have enough money to make it through the shut down or (2) won't survive when they open back up due to lack of actual customers because 'open' does not mean 'pre 2020 customer numbers'

so we're going head first into a recession that was kicked off with a nearly unprecedented event that ****ed the entire world economy at the same time

Oh ok I was curious if there was specific symptoms or feeling they provided as a guideline as to when you should go in.

GL hope you have a quick and uneventful recovery.

GL, Prairie. Hope those symptoms start to ease up for you soon.

Nurses are apparently counter-protesting in Denver.

Prairie,

Thanks for checking in and I hope you turn the corner soon.

There was also massive over production due to Russia and SA doing some dick wagging. May and June contracts actually holding in the low $20s for now.

Hope you feel better Prairie and glad the wife and crotch dumplings are okay.

And now Georgia is saying "No Florida, hold MY beer, and my banjo, and my tooth."

so when (not if) corona virus cases spike in GA, how is this not Brian Kemp's fault?

can we start a poll for their most likely excuses?

Still rooting for you Prairie. Do they have you on immune system repressants?

The only hording thing I got right was filling up my tank right when it started last month. I think I've burnt off 3 gallons

It's the fault of the people who go out and take risks obviously. But it's THEIR RISK TO TAKE IF THEY SO CHOOSE GOD BLESS AMERICA!

The Covid-19 outbreak in Los Angeles County is likely far more widespread than previously thought, up to an estimated 55 times bigger than the number of confirmed cases, according to new research from the University of Southern California and the LA Department of Public Health.

USC and the health department released preliminary study results that found that an estimated 4.1% of the county’s adult population has antibodies to the coronavirus, estimating that between 221,000 adults to 442,000 adults in the county have had the infection.

This new estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of Covid-19 reported to the county through early April. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600, according to the Department of Public Health. The data, if correct, would mean that the county’s fatality rate is lower than originally thought.

And on the other coast you can get tested at Wegman's

Nope. Politicans never blame voters for their stupidity. They depend on it. And in Georgia, the governor had his head so far up the President's ass that he didn't know that asymptomatic spread was possible until a couple of weeks ago. Even though the President himself was saying it.

It will be Nancy Pelosi's and the Democrat's fault because they held up funding for testing instead just agreeing with the President on everything.

be carful out there guys heard a new study that corona can be transmitted thru phone calls. #no phones

it's TRUE. there's more on it here...

www.iamagullibletwat.com

Garick, this seems like something you might enjoy.

https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opini...hme-model.html

In regard to the IHME model for COVID-19 deaths:

Seventy percent of US states had an actual death rate outside the 95 percent prediction interval for that state, casting doubt on whether the model is suitable to inform COVID-19 resource allocation.

Sadly, that likely means that people will just run off to another model, rather than accepting that we don't have the data we need to be able to accurately model this thing yet.

lapi, please stop posting about sweden as if it's successful

Found another article that points out a potential flaw seen by critics:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/...s-critics-say/

IHME uses neither a SEIR nor an agent-based approach. It doesn’t even try to model the transmission of disease, or the incubation period, or other features of Covid-19, as SEIR and agent-based models at Imperial College London and others do. It doesn’t try to account for how many infected people interact with how many others, how many additional cases each earlier case causes, or other facts of disease transmission that have been the foundation of epidemiology models for decades.

Instead, IHME starts with data from cities where Covid-19 struck before it hit the U.S., first Wuhan and now 19 cities in Italy and Spain. It then produces a graph showing the number of deaths rising and falling as the epidemic exploded and then dissipated in those cities, resulting in a bell curve. Then (to oversimplify somewhat) it finds where U.S. data fits on that curve. The death curves in cities outside the U.S. are assumed to describe the U.S., too, with no attempt to judge whether countermeasures —lockdowns and other social-distancing strategies — in the U.S. are and will be as effective as elsewhere, especially Wuhan.

I had been wondering why they were showing such a sharp decline rather than a fat tail on the graph, and if they are heavily relying on data from Wuhan to predict the effects of social distancing in other places then it makes sense.

Looks like Sweden is just going for "let's somewhat slowly move up to herd immunity. Eff it, we've got the hospital capacity, let's just get it over with." The fact that this leads to more front-end deaths is not an indication that it's failing. Of course, this strategy heavily depends on herd immunity working before things get really ugly, and they could end up regretting it, but those stats don't indicate it.

the people in charge of outbreaks in sweden are fully in the "it's just the flu camp" someone shared an interview with the architect of it and he's speaks in very certain terms - absolutely no doubt in his mind this is a nothingburger and thus why they are doing nothing

meanwhile their immediate neighbors are some of the more reactive countries - all have similar population densities, cultures, socioeconomic, etc etc so it's definitely going to be a sweden vs the other nordic countries study for some time to come as it's a great replication of the kind of study you'd attempt in a lab

Put me on ignore.

or just stop posting confirmation bias random tidbits, otherwise i'd miss out on the sweet dog pics and i wouldn't want that

at least johnny stopped with his awful takes once people itt started getting sick

No. I'm still here still thinking it's a gross overreaction which it is.

1) hate hate HATE statnews.com, as they are pretty much a shill for the biotech industry


2) The IMHE model is simply a curve-fitting model. It doesn't even purport to be mechanistic. I suspect that when all is said and done the modeling geeks are going to have a long and contentious debate about modeling approaches. Various time series approaches are amechanistic and just try to hit targets. We may reset to mechanistic approaches. e.g., "big data" doesn't care WHY it's right, just that it's right. It'd be nice to see that change, since I see it in my own workplace.


3) arxiv is about as close to fake news in academia as one can get. Frankly, it's irresponsible to post pre-reviewed papers and make it freely available with essentially no caveats. Do you want science to never be trusted again? Because this is how science becomes not trusted, by circumventing peer review. I mean jesus at least submit to plosOne if you want it out fast.