The Pac-12 is also a joke . I'd love to have Washington's schedule every year.

It's a common perception.

Michigan football does have all those league championships under Harbaugh's belt though. Michigan is back, right?!

Do you have ANY idea how many people actually have pre-existing conditions? The number is rather large. Telling all of them to stay home for an period of time that might be 12-18 months would absolutely cripple the economy you think would churn on without them.

How long everything remains ****ed is directly correlated to how hard countries are willing to go to the wall to fight the disease and keep people temporarily afloat.




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It's reached a point where the Big 12 is tougher than the PAC 12. Try playing Ohio State every year, and the one year you actually have a better team, every official on the field lives in Ohio and is a Buckeye homer.

Ya man, I get you. Michigan is back, just back in the wrong conference and everyone cheats.

Yup.

Value of a human life is not just it's income net of liabilities before death. It's not infinity either.

Not to mention a brief pause to flatten curve and prep for aggressive testing and increasing ventilator capacity gives economy best chance to snap back. If we haphazardly try to flip the switch back on virus will spread much faster, hospitals will get overwhelmed, and only people who want to be performative about being flippant will be comfortable returning to their normal lives. In that universe the recovery will be painfully slow and death rate will be so much bigger as to make it not worth it to come back online.

Any fair minded viewer would objectively say Michigan got robbed in 2016; the officiating was criminal.

We don't have to worry about a PAC-12 team ever competing for a natty though. I get that 2014 Oregon happened, but that was an outlier. Any PAC-12 team would be lucky to win 10 games in the Big Ten East.

Last time Michigan had the best team in the country was in the 1940s (allegedly..i wasn't around back then to confirm).

Pretty much. This offense should be a little better, but the defense won't be as good.

Country Virginia

No, 1997.

Ain't it nice to imagine what could have been? Michigan, won every national championship in preseason polls since 1940.

It's just BS that there are so many cheaters and that the conference is so tough!

Keep doing your best. the whole world is your fanbase.

They had trials. You might not have liked the medieval version of due process.

I think the problem is that you are using history as though it was some sort of benchmark of acceptability. There's a bit more to picking a threshold than humanity got it worse a long time ago.

The Cruise Ship stats are about as reliable as we can ask for. Older population, closed system, in a moist environment with people close together.
Never Surrender!

This. Even if the numbers are lower and few of the people who are in danger of dying were still active in the work force, this point still matters a lot. It's not either or. It's a no-win situation

This too, unfortunately. "Even one death is too many" is just not realistic.

Why would that come up in a thread about Coronavirus? Why are you implying that I wouldn't have a problem with that? I am far more concerned about erosion of personal liberties than effects of coronavirus on the economy. I don't even know enough about the stock market or the economy to care much about the DOW.

I didn't suggest economic impact should be the only metric either, although it's probably better than only looking at # of people we can save. Millions of people dying is bad for the economy too, so the two metrics aren't completely in conflict with each other.

I was just trying to point out (perhaps poorly) that using # of lives we can save as the only metric to guide decisions is dangerous. So is only considering the economy.

Well, yes, they're pretty good for making a worst-case model, but the sample size is really small, so confidence intervals are still extremely wise.

Uhhh, no. Nebraska was clearly the best team in 1997.

No way.

DC - the point of the graphic is to show that virus and disease have been a constant throughout humanity and will continue to be in the future whether we like it or not. How a graphic that takes objective data points and plots them on an X|Y axis can be "silly on multiple levels" is beyond me. The Covid19 dot is literally the least important part of the graphic.

There are organizations already researching and releasing data showing the outcomes of various strategies. The Imperial College Covid-19 Report released 3/16 digs into this.

The three major strategies are i) "do nothing," ii) "suppression" (what we are doing now; forced shutdown and quarantines), and iii) "mitigation" (which would slow but not stop the epidemic, reduce peak healthcare needs and protect those most at risk).

i) Under a "do nothing" response, they model an 80% infection rate and 2.2 million deaths in the US which is a 0.83% CFR (based on 330 MM population) with the majority of those deaths occurring in individuals aged 60+.

ii) Under a "suppression" response, the authoritarian quarantine measures will minimize death totals but at enormous financial costs. The suppression measures need to remain in place as long as the virus is circulating in the human population or until a vaccine becomes available which is 12-18 months away.

iii) Under a "mitigation" response, population immunity builds up through the epidemic, leading to an eventual rapid decline in case numbers and transmission dropping to low levels. Mitigation would cut deaths in half relative to a "do nothing" response, while having a significantly reduced economic impact relative to the suppression strategy. For mitigation, the majority of the effect of such a strategy can be achieved by targeting interventions in a 3 month window around the peak of the epidemic.

The best policy response is likely a short term suppression (2-6 weeks) followed by an extended mitigation period. The government has tremendous resources to throw at this problem, but instead of using a surgeon's scalpel they are swinging a sledge hammer. At much lower economic cost the government could fund video consultations to everyone to determine whether they are at risk from this disease, and how high their risk factors are. That would allow each individual to have their risk factors assessed, and allow the at-risk population to voluntarily self isolate.

Then they could provide assistance with self-isolation in terms of subsidized grocery and medical delivery (prescriptions), and subsidized housing assistance for those in risk / non-risk mixed households. Move the at-risk group to temporary housing if they choose to separate. The not-at-risk can go back to school, work, etc. Just teaching better personal hygiene would go a long way. Hand sanitizer in all public transportation places. Washing hands more frequently. Not touching your face. Limiting capacity to some % of max capacity at any given business. The alternative is a Greater Depression worse than seen from 1929-1933. People are going to die. The sooner everyone accepts that the better in my opinion.

It would come up in a thread about Coronavirus because DOJ is using the outbreak to claim that they need these powers. It would apply, "whenever the district court is fully or partially closed by virtue of any natural disaster, civil disobedience, or other emergency situation," Woodruff Swan writes, and would remain in place for "one year following the end of the national emergency."

https://reason.com/2020/03/21/justic...t-coronavirus/

This story has a far greater potential impact on our liberties than a 3 month quarantine, so imo it ought to be the priority consideration. The penalty for breaking a quarantine is in many cases a fine. I think Italy has created a criminal penalty for those who later test positive for the virus walking around for no justifiable reason, but I don't think that's unreasonable considering the circumstances.

Did you even watch that season? Nobody thought Michigan would beat Nebraska. Nebraska blew out the #3 team 42-17. Michigan barely escaped #8 Washington State thanks to the bonehead ref calling the game finished even though there should have been 1 second left with Washington State at the Michigan 26 and Heisman finalist Ryan Leaf at the helm after he had just marched his team like 70 yards in no time at all.

Then it needs to be in this thread about as much as college football talk.

Oh we're beetlejuicing now? Bad idea imo

if you bothered to read the accompanying text you’d see this is already far less deadly than the Spanish Flu which had a CFR between 10-20% and killed between 50-100 million.

Using multiple data points to draw conclusions. I know that is hard for you.

Yeah but you're a troll and he's an idiot, so that leaves the number of non-idiots making this argument in good faith roughly zero.

Can you clarify how you are defining mitigation? The way you've outlined it there I don't see how it differs from do nothing. Though the result you draw from that strategy is what we are going for.

Also where are we seeing strict forced lockdowns and quarantines?

From what I see "essential businesses" are still being allowed to operate. People are still being allowed to make grocery store runs.