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Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread Self quarantine: the LLSNL Coronaids thread

03-22-2020 , 12:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miamicheats
Thanks for your service TJ


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+1
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03-22-2020 , 12:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12
Just got done with a night shift at the hospital

We have a whole floor dedicated to possible Covid-19 patients that are awaiting test results. I got floated to this floor last night.

Definitely surreal. It's extremely annoying to have to gown up, mask, eye protection, gloves, and hand hygiene before/after every time you need to enter a room. But still new and scary enough that I followed protocol to the letter.

The good news is that floor is getting all the budgetary and staffing help the hospital can muster. On other floors, nurses have 5-6 patients and techs have 9-14 patients. On this floor, nurses have a max of 4 and techs have a max of 6, they just keep overstaffing the floor to fill census needs.

Yes thanks for what you do.

My neighbour is a firefighter with 3 kids under 5, one of which has lung issues. To protect his kids, he’s not going to be living at home for a while. My sons now call his wife twice a day to check in and see if she needs anything for her or the kids.

Everyone has to pitch in on this one.


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03-22-2020 , 02:31 PM
Thank you TJ. It is much appreciated!
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03-22-2020 , 03:43 PM
Stay safe TJ.

Do you feel you're in danger of being over capacity anytime in the near term?
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03-22-2020 , 04:11 PM
Our PPE is holding out, for now.

What I'm really worried about is our ICU capacity. My hospital is 112 inpatient beds, with 40-60 more in the emergency room (which is for short term, the idea is to either decide to admit someone inpatient, or discharge them quickly, to keep our carrying capacity high). But we only have 8 ICU beds. When I left this morning, we had 20 patients that were Covid-possible... if whatever % of them are positive, and then they deteriorate, that's a situation that could go sideways quickly.

And, we have, of course, no shortage of non-Covid patients that need our ICU also.

The good news is my hospital system also includes a huge hospital not 20 miles away with over 400 beds, and they're putting the finishing touches on having the 2nd-largest emergency room in the country, so it's not just us out here... so there's that.
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03-22-2020 , 04:16 PM
The real problem is that "normal" for the hospital is between 80-95% full at all times, which it's been for pretty much all of flu season (since November). So something like this coming along could shock the system.
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03-22-2020 , 04:16 PM
I assume you’re one of the midtown hospitals? I hope you guys can stay ahead of this!
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03-22-2020 , 04:21 PM
What state is your hospital in?
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03-22-2020 , 05:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Lincoln did the same thing during the Civil War. Both W and Obama used their crisises to grab new powers for the presidency. So this is nothing new.

Just needs to be fought again, no matter what side you might be on.
Just actions in war time are not the same as in peace. The cycle is not going to
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
What state is your hospital in?
Some SEC team's.

edit:though technically ACC

Last edited by DeadMoneyWalking; 03-22-2020 at 05:37 PM. Reason: but really SEC
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03-22-2020 , 06:06 PM
Definitely more ACC than SEC.

Though its best talents are likely all playing in SEC.
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03-22-2020 , 06:20 PM
lol

come on, if you're familiar with my work in Sporting Events (comically gigantic UGA homer) ya know it's gotta be SEC!

We play the championship game here, where football matters, not in Charlotte or whatever for the ACCCG in front of a 25% crowd

Quote:
I assume you’re one of the midtown hospitals? I hope you guys can stay ahead of this!
Not quite, very much outside the perimeter

Nobody actually lives in Atlanta, we just have suburban sprawl for 75 miles in every direction

I'm west of the city
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03-22-2020 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by reaper6788
I'm going to preface posting this with saying there's a lot I don't like about this article, but it describes how unreliable the death rate estimates have been because of selection in testing (only people with severe symptoms get tested) so death rate (and, thus, death projections) could be highly overinflated.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/...reliable-data/

He starts off pretty well. He uses the Princess Cruise death rate to get an unbiased death rate (because everyone was tested) then takes that rate and adjusts it for demographics in the broader US population. He gets a really wide range an unbiased estimate. The problem comes when he then talks about what if the truth is in the fifth/tenth percentile (shape of distribution unclear) of that range and if the total infections with absolutely no containment efforts in the US was just 1 million people.

It's ****ing ridiculous and irresponsible for the author to be making these comments on the rosiest projection possible (likelihood of infection and death both being jointly that low given his own estimates has to be tiny, like <1%). But I totally agree with his general assertion that we need broad aggressive random testing because social distancing is not sustainable.

1) That web site and the dude that wrote that are shills for the biotech industry, so there's that.


2) WE DON'T KNOW EVERYTHING SO WE SHOULD DO NOTHING


3) **** off. We need to minimize the damage. By which I mean human damage, not corporate damage.
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03-22-2020 , 07:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Also, just to note that I lost a mid-30s friend to the flu. It does happen.

I mean, this is obviously more serious than I thought it was likely to become, but we still need to keep things in perspective. The numbers so far (and I'm not saying they'll stay this way) are still just a statistical drop in the bucket.

I honestly fear that we'll lose as many people to suicide, overdose, etc. brought on by the economic ramifications of the response as the response will save. Obviously, that is not quantifiable, and we can't morally justify just ignoring it and letting the chips fall where they may, but we need to make sure we don't worry so much about this one threat that we lose sight of others.

So let's worry about deaths that have multiple causations and minimize the ones with single proximal cause?


Cool story bro
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03-22-2020 , 07:32 PM
daughter went back to school today and is well enough to complain about it. I'm also 100% better now, wife at about 90%

no idea whether we contracted it or not, but if we did then we got away relatively light with elder daughter having the equivalent of a really nasty flu, wife and I a weird, lingering throat infection with mild fever for about a week and then other kids getting about 36 hours of sore throat and then back to normal.
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03-22-2020 , 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
What state is your hospital in?
Not quite the super sleuth there are we, Mr spyutastic?
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03-22-2020 , 08:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fluffy68
Not quite the super sleuth there are we, Mr spyutastic?
lol guess not. Not always paying attention to people's under titles and locations I guess.
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03-22-2020 , 08:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
daughter went back to school today and is well enough to complain about it. I'm also 100% better now, wife at about 90%

no idea whether we contracted it or not, but if we did then we got away relatively light with elder daughter having the equivalent of a really nasty flu, wife and I a weird, lingering throat infection with mild fever for about a week and then other kids getting about 36 hours of sore throat and then back to normal.
Great to hear. Stay well.
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03-22-2020 , 08:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Eckleburg12
lol

come on, if you're familiar with my work in Sporting Events (comically gigantic UGA homer) ya know it's gotta be SEC!

We play the championship game here, where football matters, not in Charlotte or whatever for the ACCCG in front of a 25% crowd



Not quite, very much outside the perimeter

Nobody actually lives in Atlanta, we just have suburban sprawl for 75 miles in every direction

I'm west of the city
I never noticed your location. I am northside.
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03-22-2020 , 09:19 PM
@feelwrath re: plans:

Totally agree 100% about taking precautions without feeding into the hysteria - and avoiding rabid consumption of the news. I never was a fan of most reporting anyway. (As if we need to know every bad thing that has transpired any given day.) I think an informed public is essential to any functioning free state; a terrorized one, not so much.

So I am remaining positive and optimistic as we navigate these uncertain times. The first couple days after I stopped going to the casinos (several days before they were closed by the governor) were really hard on me because I'd lost my routine. But I quickly adapted and found replacements. Over a week in and I am doing fine.

I'm getting into shape (I'm probably slightly underweight for my height), going for a daily jog (a little further each day), working on my core, enjoying time with the dogs, my morning coffee, family, contact with close friends online, updating the pg&c daily. Thankfully the virus hasn't impacted indoor plumbing - I am grateful for my hot shower and functioning toilet - or the ability to just sit outside now that the weather is becoming more and more beautiful as the days go by. Spring - one of my favorite times of the year - is in the air. Has helped me to keep in touch with as many people in my life as possible knowing we're all in this together and not alone. I communicate with my friends daily. Set up a Party Poker "home game" for us too.

To pay bills while casinos are shuttered, I'm playing micros online now (PLO5 on PPPoker - lineups soft as butter). Working on a $5k micros BR challenge - $700 and counting. I still have my part-time day job and started writing strat articles for a training site.

Plus, I mean, how can you say no to this face?



Glad you and your family are well. I may have contracted it a couple weeks ago - first time I ever had a bad, lingering cough to accompany my cold and mild fever. Then, my lungs hurt when I ran - also a first.
Feel fine now though.

Be smart and safe, all. We'll be OK, just give it time.

Last edited by DumbosTrunk; 03-22-2020 at 09:35 PM.
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03-22-2020 , 09:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
daughter went back to school today and is well enough to complain about it. I'm also 100% better now, wife at about 90%

no idea whether we contracted it or not, but if we did then we got away relatively light with elder daughter having the equivalent of a really nasty flu, wife and I a weird, lingering throat infection with mild fever for about a week and then other kids getting about 36 hours of sore throat and then back to normal.
Glad to hear you're all back on the upswing. Does anyone know if you can get tested to see if you HAD the virus? Or is it only if it's active?
(Excuse my ignorance. I took an engineering path so my last biology class was high school.)

Marsh
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03-22-2020 , 10:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
Glad to hear you're all back on the upswing. Does anyone know if you can get tested to see if you HAD the virus? Or is it only if it's active?
(Excuse my ignorance. I took an engineering path so my last biology class was high school.)

Marsh
From what appears to be known so far up until a certain point. They have found that you can still transmit the virus up to 2 to 3 wks after your symptoms have gone away from people that have recovered. Beyond that it's probably not known as we're having trouble testing everyone who actively have it as it is.
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03-22-2020 , 11:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarshMan114
Glad to hear you're all back on the upswing. Does anyone know if you can get tested to see if you HAD the virus? Or is it only if it's active?
(Excuse my ignorance. I took an engineering path so my last biology class was high school.)

Marsh
the issue in Australia is that we don't have nearly enough tests. So they're only testing people who report to hospital with the symptoms AND have been in contact with a known sufferer or have recently returned from overseas. Still in Aus with 1500 cases over 1k of the cases are from people who caught it overseas and then returned home (more from the US & Italy than China)

my understanding is that Sth Korea is the country with the most widespread testing protocol...not coincidentally the country with one of the highest infection rates and aboutnthe lowest mortality rate too - they're not just testing those people who get hospitalised, so they're finding more tests among healthier people and thus the death rate is way lower.
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03-22-2020 , 11:50 PM
very good to hear from guys who spend their days in card rooms are coping fine, had legit concerns about adaptation for you guys, especially if this were preceded by a rough downswing or a big purchase

also glad you're doing well tj, remember you mentioning your career in another thread and it's nice to hear you're doing well - my heart goes out to you man, especially in the bfi threads they are talking about hospitals with regulations against staff wearing protective gear because they don't want non covid patients to panic - insanity
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03-22-2020 , 11:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath
the issue in Australia is that we don't have nearly enough tests. So they're only testing people who report to hospital with the symptoms AND have been in contact with a known sufferer or have recently returned from overseas. Still in Aus with 1500 cases over 1k of the cases are from people who caught it overseas and then returned home (more from the US & Italy than China)

my understanding is that Sth Korea is the country with the most widespread testing protocol...not coincidentally the country with one of the highest infection rates and aboutnthe lowest mortality rate too - they're not just testing those people who get hospitalised, so they're finding more tests among healthier people and thus the death rate is way lower.
It's actually Germany.
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03-23-2020 , 02:41 AM
This guy is a 28yr old athlete. He didn't have cancer. He doesn't have asthma. He got through it, but not a walk in the park.
8 days in the hospital on oxygen. This is why this disease poses a threat to the NHS. It takes up a lot of resources to keep people alive.

Half of NY ICU are under age 40. If you think you're untouchable because you're young, wake the F up.

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