Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
If I had J9, I would turn my hand into a bluff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
He can get station-y and sticky if someone else is going the betting...
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
... with a tiny chance he could call with K5.
Really like your contributions here, but I read the OP a few times and I'm not sure I understand it at all.
Could you be leveling yourself a little bit with some of your reads?
For example, the quotes above: V can be "stationy and sticky," but with J9 two pair, you might make a big bluff because he'd fold better? Yet he's also capable of calling a small bet with K5 second pair no kicker? I just don't buy it. Against a guy who might get to the river and call a small bet with K5, I would almost never think that a somewhat larger bet as a "bluff" would get him to fold a hand as strong as two pair.
I think you might have a little too much confidence in your ability to manipulate his continuing range and action based on bet size and too much confidence in your ability to manipulate his behavior exactly to your liking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
Villain definitely has AT, QT, JT, TT, and T9 in his range.
Agree. +KT. And that's a lot of Tx. ~58 combos of straights. And by the way, again, if he is pretty stationy and he can show up with weird stuff like K5, then he could have a TON more than the 58 combos (think T8, T5s, etc). Once he flops the OESD with any Tx, he might peel down to the river.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AsianNit
If hero bets 120-ish, villain folds all two pair hands. If hero bets small, villain is capable of sensing weakness and either overvaluing two pair because he puts me on AK or turning two pair into a bluff because he thinks I don't have a straight. If I made a smaller bet like 60, villain might make it 160 with a range that is probably somewhere between 75% and 90% straights. He will be inspired to bluff me only some of the time because he will fear I am intentionally betting small as a trap. My estimate of how often he check-raises the river is a bit uncertain, but I feel confident with my read through his turn check.
Here is where I see the most self-leveling.
You're saying that if we bet 120, he folds two pair. But if we bet less, he might check/raise bluff with two pair... OR perhaps VALUE raise with two pair. If we find a sweet spot maybe around ~60, he raises to 160 mostly with straights. But sometimes he senses weakness and will c/r bluff; though other times, he realizes we're betting small as a trap and will not c/r. Those times, presumably, he's still might not even call with two-pair... HOWEVER, sometimes when we bet small, he actually calls K5 second one pair no kicker!
To be completely frank, and I hope it comes across as respectful as I do mean this respectfully, I actually don't see any actionable read here or any real understanding of villain's playing style.
For example, we're saying that with the same hand - say two-pair - depending on bet size, he might fold to a bet (which is why we might bluff J9)... he might call a bet... he might check/raise as a bluff... he might check/raise for value (overvaluing two-pair and putting you on AK). Well... of course you're right, because that covers every single possibility of action and reasoning!
I think I can simplify this a lot.
With so much uncertainty regarding whether he even calls a reasonable bet with two pair and whether he puts a raise in with an unknown range of Tx and bluffs with smaller bets, and given that Tx can comprise WAY over 58 obvious combos while other likely hands (not inclusive, but say just for example KQ, KJ, K9, QJ, AJ, J9 - well that list is < 50 combos), then this is a pretty clear check back on the 4-straight board.
I think it goes back to basics where it's probably not a +EV value bet because he has a range of hands that includes quite a bit of Tx, and since Tx isn't combinatorically blocked, he will naturally have a bit more of it in his range. More likely than not, his calling range does not give you value.
But it gets worse. You really can't bet with the plan to call a check/raise. So by making a value bet, which is probably actually a fair bit -EV given his ability to have plenty of Tx - more than other strong made hands - and, to pile on, he will even fold some decent made hands, you're also giving him the opportunity to turn some losing hands into profitable bluffs, thereby making your value bet even worse, but, again, he's doing so with a range of hands that's almost always going to be weighted enough toward Tx that you really just cannot call the check/raise.
And trying to identify some perfect bet size that will manipulate villain to do exactly what you want with his range such that he might call with enough worse.. or c/r bluff so often you can bet/call, etc. is in my view tending towards wishful thinking and even FPS.
Long story short, check behind; if he has two pair, reassure yourself that you didn't lose value.
Last edited by Willyoman; 07-01-2015 at 12:50 PM.