Hero - MAWG, starting around $1200. Usually a winning TAG table image, but started out stuck and the table seems to be calling all my bets wide. Minimally bluffing at this point, but going for lots of thin value.
V - MAAG, bit of a loose-passive rec-fish, starting around $900. Played with him a few times. Just doesn't ever give hero credit for having a hand. Will call hero's bets VERY wide, pre and post, like calling three streets with 3rd pair and worse, and will drastically over-value / over-play decent but not nutted hands against hero. Seems like he'll chase his draws if he thinks the odds are anywhere close to good enough.
I've noticed he'll donk lead flops and turns with thick value, at least against other opponents, especially when multi-way. I don't know if he'd donk-lead into me on the river when we're HU and I've bet flop and turn, rather than slow-play a made hand. It seems obvious that he's drastically over-estimating my bluffing frequency.
That said, there was at least one very strong hand that he checked to me on the river in a past session, thinking I'd bet, but he was disappointed when I checked back, and he's seen me check-back rather than barrel off in this session (assuming he's even paying attention). In this hand, I was thinking it was possible he'd remember me checking back that hand or some other hands.
OTTH:
PRE - V opens to $15 from EP, Hero on BTN with AcAs 3B to $50. Folds to V who calls. HU to flop.
FLOP ($100) - QdJc7d. V x, H $40, V calls.
TURN ($180) - QdJc6d 5s. Vx, H $120, V calls.
RIVER ($420) - QdJc6d 5s Ad. Vx.
Hero?
So...KT and V's flush draws got there, but we made top set, and are now beating all V's 2P combos, assuming he'd have slow-played any of them. QJ or 65 might have donk-led or check-raised at some point, or block-bet the river.
Not sure if he'd chase a straight on a two-flush board, or if he'd only chase the flush. Not sure how many flush draws he has here, when he opens from EP, calls a 3B, calls flop, calls turn, and the river is the Ad. Maybe just KTdd or K9dd.
A good reg was sweating my hand. I asked him after if he'd bet the river for thin value in my spot, and he said he would, especially if V is prone to calling me down wide.
The ace on the river is a good card for me to continue betting if I was bluffing and wanted folds, but I wasn't sure what I'd be targeting for value here. It seemed like we'd only be targeting a very small number of AX combos, like AJ, AT, or A5, and maybe some really stubborn QX or JX combos.
Perhaps I should have added something which may not be obvious...
I'm not sure what flushes I have here, with the Ad on the river, when V is calling all my bets wide. I'm not sure I'd be 3B'ing pre with KTdd or K9dd against this guy, probably just KJdd. I probably wouldn't be c-betting and barreling with KJdd or K9dd, probably just KTdd. So, I don't think I have very many if any flushes here, but V might not realize it, or may not care.
Even if he thinks I might have some flushes, he's never folding rivered straights. But I'm not sure he'd be slow-playing any sets or 2P he has before the river, on a wet board like this. When he called down with worse than TP, the board didn't favor my range as much as this one does.
I guess my point is that I was left wondering if this guy gets to the river with 1P, 2P or sets often enough to keep his calling range from being too heavily weighted towards straights and flushes, or if he really thinks I'd barrel off here with worse than top set, and he'd call with a lot of his worse hands that just can't find the fold button.
Yes it's scary river in absolute terms, but for players who have very wide ranges, no one card can ever be that scary. Likewise no one card can ever be perfectly safe.
Hero's been trying to squeeze out a little more profit with some thin value bets, so hero doesn't think too long before betting $200.
Spoiler:
V snap calls and fast rolls KTs, no diamonds, saying "I rivered the straight!"
I'm still undecided on whether or not I like my river bet. My gut tells me he might have raised 2P+ on flop or turn, and might not call river with just 1P when the flush and straight draws get there, but would prefer to trap me with his own draws that come in. Feels like I was only targeting a few AX combos.
