Game is $1/$2 NL, $300 Max. Hero has $550 and has won a few pots recently. Still viewed as TAG.

Villians in this hand are in SB and BTN. SB is MAAG, very tight and somewhat passive. Has not lost a showdown since Hero has been at the table (3 hours). He has $800. BTN is loosey goosey AG, very active in first thirty minutes, down a buyin already and likes to chase draws. He has $200.

OTTH

One limp to Hero in CO who raises to $17 with AK. BTN calls as does SB, limper folds.

Flop ($51 after max rake)

AQ4

SB checks. Hero leads for $35 and both call relatively quickly (comments on size...too small/big?). Diamond draws are definitely a big part of ranges here as are combos and Ax. Maybe Qx as well that has some other equity (say KQ or QJ with a diamond).

Turn ($156)

AQ4Q

SB checks. Not the best card for Hero, but I still need to bet to charge draws and potentially get value from AJ/AT. Hero bets $75 (again comments on sizing), button folds and SB calls again after a bit of thought.

River ($306)

AQ4Q7

Sb checks. Hero go for three streets and if so size?

Thanks in advance for your comments.

Shorn

Flop sizing is fine. Given BTN's calling proclivities I prob make it $40, but that's nit-picking.

I disagree that turn is a bad card for us, sure, Qx is now winning, but it makes Qx much less likely.

Turn half pot is good.

River, what do we get value from? AJ or AT, maybe? Does that call enough for it to be worth value cutting ourself when he has us beat? Debatable. With 425 effective, we could still bet/fold here, and given V is very unlikely to bluff raise, I could get behind a half-pot bet.

I like pre, and flop sizings. I probably go closer to 2/3-ish to $90-100 OTT but $75 is fine IMO. I probably check back OTR to a "very tight" player who hasn't lost a showdown in 3 hours. If he was drawing he'll insta fold. I think there's a good chance he doesn't pay us off with AJ-. If he calls we are either chopping or we lose IMO. Against most V's I may find a river value bet, against described V I probably leave some value on the table.

Definitely betting the river. It’s hard to imagine villain arriving at this river with much Qx given the flop overcall multiway and no turn raise. If you’re losing it’s likely to 44/AQ.

I just allin.

But what is a very tight player calling your river shove with?

That’s villain’s job to find out. If he folds everything we beat then a bluff jam will be very profitable.

Is this a troll???

A bet is only profitable if he calls with worse.

If you fold out worse, you didnt gain more than by checking behind. If he calls with better, you lose the extra bet.

As Dougl pointed out, there are a few worse hands that might call a (reasonable) bet, but not many...

I do not troll. I know what makes a bet profitable.

We don't know how villain will respond to a large bet size. Instead of guessing, it makes sense to use an all-in sizing with a balanced range.

It may seem like villain shows down winners too frequently, but 3 hours is potentially an extremely small number of showdowns for a tight player, and an extremely small sample size. We've no way of knowing what his folding range is here. Pre-flop tightness doesn't necessarily imply post-flop tightness.

I expect to have the best hand often enough that all-in is the optimal sizing with a balanced range. Do you disagree that we have the best hand at a very high frequency, or just believe we won't ever get called by worse? If we will never get called by worse but have the best hand most of the time (say 85%), bluffing all-in will be extremely profitable. If you are not confident bluffing all-in on this river with a hand like JsTs, then you're not really that confident that worse hands won't call, are you?

I play this very differently starting with 12 pre and a much smaller flop sizing. If betting turn after being called in 2 spots, I would continue to keep things small - or check. It's not a particularly thrilling card.

Then I check riv and let btn do his thing. If he bets, things are still wide enough that we can overcall if SB calls and still be in good shape.

AP though, I kinda of like a jam bc of what browni said, but I would almost never look to stackoff like this in 1/2 with all this massive sizing (IMO). It's not like it's that bad or anything, but I don't consider AK a stackoff hand 3 ways on this board.

BTN folded turn it's HU OTR.

I took the hypothetical too far - I expect more calls from btn when downbetting both streets.

Against a range of KQ,AQ, AJ, ATs, A9s we are ahead on the river 54.6% of the time. If he folds A9s, then betting isn’t +EV even if he never bluff raises. Do you think he is calling more suited aces in the sb preflop and does he call ATo?

Against a loose player we have a pretty slam dunk value bet but against somewhat with a tighter range pre I probably just check back. He could also have more Qx than just KQ and he could also have some 44.

Not sure if I like the turn sizing if the plan is to check back river though. Probably want to go a little bigger. If they have a looser range and we want to go for 3 streets then it’s fine.

If you are not betting this river, your value range becomes Qx and boats. This will make your river bets too heavy on bluffs, Id bet small for value around 1/3 pot.

100 river

How many bluffs are you triple barreling here though that you need more value to balance? I think I’m checking here with villain as described. Is he the tight passive type to check to the pfr always or will he donk out with value. If it’s the former I like a check even more, if it’s the latter and his range is weaker I can sometimes get behind a third barrel

There's value in not having to show down.

Yes I think we are deep enough that he calls with some suited Ax and with ATo+. That being said, he seemed tight enough that I don't think he would call the second bet OTT with a bad Ace (say A9 or worse). So at that point I think his range is more like AT+ and Qx.

Those advocating a shove, I understand the thought process for balance purposes, but again this 1/2 not 5/10, so my personal thoughts are that balance is much less important than getting straight value overall, especially versus what seems like a competent player. If the guy were a drooler then would agree that a shove fro value OTR is a great play or if he were a total nit, then the same when I hold a hand like JTss that I had barrelled twice.

Interesting. So you really play the hand deceptively hoping button will spazz and that is how you get your value. I need to think on that. I guess my concern was being in between a loose BTN and a tighter semi-competent player on a wettish board. I thought betting larger sizes on the flop and turn would be better as the BTN would continue with all FD's and weak Aces and that sizing would limit the SB's bluffing frequency, both good results for me.

Yeah I think I missed some value here on both the flop (as Garick said...$40-$45) and also potentially OTT ($90-$100 seems better).

Well you know me and thin value...I did end up betting the river for $125. I just didn't think that V would check a Q there as so many players will check behind and get to showdown and he didn't know me as a thin value bettor. I also wanted to get value from AT/AJ if he held those and as you said he was folding all missed diamonds anyway. I also did not think he held AK as I am pretty certain he would have 3! me with that holding pre (same for AA or QQ). Anyway, V tanked for a good 45 seconds or so and made the call and MHIG. He didn't show, but when I said "AJ?" he nodded and I believed him.

Thanks to everyone for comments. Definitely food for thought on sizing which is what I wanted mostly. Will noodle on the all-in thoughts and see if I can find spots where that might be the highest EV play.

Shorn

Not aiming for deception, I just wouldn’t look to make 2b pots huge with 1p hands very often as part of my overall strat. I also have zero concerns about SB bluffing frequencies given your description, instead, I just want to appear wide/keep them wide and grab value along the way. Qx isn’t a great card so betting smaller or checking turn becomes a thing. I might bet bet bet or bet bet check or bet ck bet here, but I’m just not looking to pile in 300 because tptk **** you guys.