Villain is a competent TAG whom I had played a couple of hands previously with but we seldom get to showdown. We seldom tangle with each other though.

During this session (villain would have perceived me to be running hot since I quadrupled up), the villain presumably folded a strong hand (at least AA+) vs my flop check raise [Hand 1].

2 orbits later, I made a big river shove in this hand [Hand 2].

Hand 2 - Effective size around 90-100 bb

Preflop
Villain (Tag) raises to 3bb at MP1, I called with A9 OTB. Heads up to flop.

The reason I called is because I feel that he might be steaming abit from his big fold earlier on and make mistakes against me. I also think that I cal outplay him on alot of board.

Flop (~8bb): JT 3
He cbet 4bb and I called. The reason I called is similar to the reason I called preflop - To float and outplay him especially since I have alot of backdoor outs to make moves at turn.

Turn (16bb): 8
I now have a backdoor flush draw as well as OESD.

Villain cbet 8bb and I raised to ~24bb, villain called.

River (~60bb) : 3

Villain checked and I shove all in (Approximately slightly over pot size).

Is this ever a profitable bluff?

I don't think this is profitable for a couple reasons:

1. What are you representing? Only plausible value hands are Q9 and 97 for the straight.
2. V is steaming from a big fold. Seems like he's more likely to look you up here.

not a bad spot, although once he calls turn he is likely calling riv, if he really is a tag then a bluffcatch on the turn is still a bluffcatch on riv

My own analysis of the hand using flopzilla:



At turn, we are about 50/50 though the river 3 lower my equity a little bit.

I had filtered the possible hands villain might have after calling my turn raise. And after this filter, it turns out that

1. it is highly unlikely that he has a made straight at turn and river.
2. he does have alot of OESD at turn that misses river
3. His made hand % is about 25% TP,12% overpair, 7% two pair, and 9% set.

My question is, will this then be a good bluff against this TAG who I don't think he will get stacked without the nuts?

Raise bigger on turn to get more FE; you need to set up a pot where a river shove would be less than a PSB so he feels it's imminent. Then check behind river.

Question:

If villain is going to fold to a larger turn bet, isn't it likely also that he is going to fold to river shove?

There are actually many river cards that I can shove with.

Eg., most bricks, a 7, and all flush hands.

There are also many hands that I can check down, example, an A, Q.

I would hate to see these cards though...9,J and K.

Given that there are many hands that I can bluff at river (assuming my bluff is +ev), why should I be betting larger at turn since villain is equally likely to fold to river shove on most board?

I agree with shoving flush cards and 7s (maybe even 9s), but the idea is that if you raise large enough on the turn that he folds most of his one pair hands, you can save yourself the river bullet because most of his range OTR will be 2p+ that he's unlikely to fold. If you're sure he's folding everything but straights or whatever then yeah your line is fine, but I question that assumption.

I liked your plan until the river. This river card is the worst card in the deck for you to bluff.

I agree that if I raised big enough, it will fold TP hands and only get two pair+ hands to continue. But how will he play two pair+ hands then? Most likely he is going to rereraise me. And of coz, I will have to call and hope for a good river card.

But if I bet slightly smaller, I am still keeping his weaker range in the hand, like TP and OESD. True, if he had two pair + or sets, he will be likely to call my river shove (esp after that big hand he folded earlier).

Either way, I am stacking off (if he had two pairs+) regardless of whether I reraise big or smaller. But I feel that by rerasing smaller, I am keeping his weaker range in the hand which will give me fold equity at river.

yeah, I would think so. I won't be able to represent alot of hands.

Against a good LAG or good hand reader, I would prolly give up river. But I am not sure if I am checking back this hand with 0 showdown equity against this tag... ...

Yea river card sucks to continue this bluff but it's hard to abort now since you have no showdown value and if this guy does play snug there is a chance he folds here. Although I can't think of many hands in his range he is folding here. KQ hearts? But he might shove this when you raise turn. AJ?

The only hand you are represeting here is Q9. It could be a semi-slow played set or j10 but if he has an over-pair he is now beating j10 j8 and 108. I just don't know what hand he is folding here with that river card. If he is a good hand reader like someone said and has a Q or 9 blocker in his hand he is probably never folding here as you just don't represent much and if he has a blocker you are really just representing a set which is unlikely and he might be thinking you 3 bet pre with 10s and JJ in position.

It really just depends on how competent, nitty, or good at hand reading/analysis this guy is. But after he has put in this much money this far into the hand I doubt he folds to that river card.

in this hand, he actually check n then instant fold vs shove. I think I am lucky that I caught the lower end of his calling range at turn and it works out well. But in the long run, is this ever profitable?

What? Why?

It is reasonable for you to have JJ, TT, 33, JT and Q9s for value OTR.

River shove is fine. My only thoughts would dwell on if a turn min-raise then river 1/2 PSB would have given you the same amount of equity.

In villain's shoes, my range is TT+, 33, AJ and I am folding all of it to your river shove except for the sets obv. (Well that's not entirely true, if I am villain I probably fold turn with AJ and overpairs because I'm aware that there are 18-21 really awful river cards for us).

The river bluff can be a profitable spot, but you need to have a range on V here. What do you think he has, what does he call with and what does he fold with?

From your post all I gather is that he may be tilted, which if anything makes him more likely to look you up

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Grunch

This might be a profitable shove if the river wasn't a 3. Plan to get snapped off by all over pairs now, where as if the river is a 4s, they probably fold. If I was villain and had ever seen you make a bet that actually turned out to be what it looked like (in this case your river bet is saying "I want you to fold") then I would be calling pretty light here.

First of all, this is like the easiest to read / cleanest, to the point hand histories I've ever read. Please post more just so for the sake of good format.

This is really weird as I was going to post (may still) a hand I had last night, a flush draw flop turned open ender, river paired the board.

985105

I had KJ

I had repopped turn just as you, and shoved a PSB otr against a TAG. He tank folded A9 (and he certainly wasn't a station), so I'm not sure this was the best play from me.

A paired river isn't the best card to jam on (the way I took my line, which was flatting flop just as you), although I am jamming my value range here as well, and it also took 55 out of his range.

Might post this week if you keep an eye out.

Why would we be checking back on these rivers?

I guess the real question is what do you think his range is? What hands would he raise pre, bet flop, then bet/call turn with?

My read on this villain is that he is a barrel
happy TAG regular who will often bet flop n turn with top pair type of hands as well as draws.

He does know about position n as such, I expect his opening range to be
rather strong.

When he doubled barrel, apart from his monster hands like two pair +, he
shld have a good amount of Jx, draws, middle pair hand, making it profitable for me to raise turn n bet most river.

The problem came when that river paired the board.

My turn raise rep two types of hand - straight and sets.

My river shove rep only fullhouse since logically, I would hate the rivered 3 n more inclined to bet lesser at river for value if I had a straight.

Note: there's are much fewer combos for fullhouse+ especially if villain holds a blocker to my fullhouse.

There is a slight difference in this hand I guess...

There is a possible flush draw n therefore, it is more likely for u to raise flop instead of turn. Not to say u wont be calling with sets on this kind of flop, but it indeed reduced the number of possible sets holding u have at turn.

Otherwise, I think your hand is quite similar to mine