2-3 NL 300-match the stack, plays like a
3-5. Villain in BB is MAWW with 400.

In previous hand she bet 20, bet 25, check against me in limper pot on 985hh Qx 3x. I showed 63hh and she showed J9dd. She was utg limper, I was BB and it was 5 ways.

Hero on btn with K5dd.

Pre: Hero opens 10, just V in BB calls

Flop (22) : AdQdJx
V donks 20 hero calls

Turn (62) : Kx
V 25 hero calls

River (112) : Jddd
V 100

Pretty standard up to the river.
Her down-bet ott looks like she's afraid of a straight, but our hand has too much equity to turn it into a bluff in position, imo.

River is very much V-dependent. In a vacuum, I'd probably just call.
Theoretically, any raise would commit you, so you should rather shove directly, but I doubt you will get called by worse often enough.
Against some specific players, there may be an argument for a very exploitative min-raise/fold, to like 250.

I don't think I would raise here, and folding would be pretty wild.

The turn bet sizing should tip us off that she doesn't have the T high flush (because her sizing indicates weakness, and that hand would be the nuts on the turn). She can't have the Q high or J high flush because of the board. So by raising here, we would be targeting very few combos of small flushes which are somewhat unlikely to play this way, and which may not pay off on river anyway.

It's definitely possible that she has a full house (QJ or AJ specifically), and her sizing certainly indicates that. She can have worse value on the river though, so I wouldn't think there is reason to consider folding here.

Gross. I think you have to call, but it's a sigh-call. No reason to raise. Everything else is fine, although I might raise the flop.

Agreed. We need what? 32%? What range are we giving V, given the unusual action?

AJ,QJ,AQo gets us to 43%. I don't think any of the sets are likely. Does anyone disagree? Giving V QQ and JJ too, puts us at 33%.

Thanks Dan for explicitly pointing out AJ, and QJ make boats. I don't know why I brain-farted past that in my initial, "We haz nut flush, she doesn't have set, we call." reaction.

She might have us, but she could have AQ, AK, 9dTd, AT, etc. Who knows after the other hand she played?

Meh. I think V can donk flop maybe with KT and QJ, maybe AJ. We have 1/3 of those combos beat on the river. We get 2-1. So I think it's a coin flip.

Raising is a punt, even against a V who can overvalue top pair and draws like in the prior HH.

If I played a lot against her, I would call for meta-game purposes. If I didn't think I was going to play her again, I might find a tight fold.

Pre, Flop, Turn
Good

River
So annoying. I'm never raising. Definitely player dependent. I would try and get a live read and maaaaybe if I'm on my A-game I can find a tight fold and not tell anyone what I had. I don't think you're good all that often but in-game I almost always call here and hope she doesn't know what she's doing and bets the river with with AK, AQ, KT, or a smaller flush.

Yuck.

Just calling. Not loving it.

Result: I call she has QJ. I am surprised by early responses saying this is a raise or call. Was a crying call for me.

I knew she hated turn I wish I had just overbet ripped it.

Yikes. At least now you know you can read her by her sizing!