River flush on paired board facing bet and call
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 698
KTcc on btn
around 200 effective
dont know anything about villains
preflop 1 limper i make it 10, sb calls, limper in MP calls
flop Qc 9 6
i make it 15, both call
Turn 5 c
checked through (I could barrel, but I dont want to get raised off my equity and im in position)
river 6 c
sb bets 60, MP calls, can i ever shove or do i have to just call here
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 5,515
How old is the sb as he is the only one who could possibly have the house or nut flush here?
I think you need to bet more on the flop, 22 is about right. Usually we are good here and weaker hands will call off. The only hands villian one can have that beat us are 65, nut flush, 55 or 99 but when he bets so big on the river he is probably value betting. It's hard to know. He may think aq is the nuts here.
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 215
Shove all day. No one is checking that turn with a set/two pair, and the only nut flush that should be there is A9cc.
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 217
*grunch*
I'm not sure about this spot. If you were deeper, I could see a raise / fold line on the river, hoping to get paid by rivered trips.
In the current hand, I am leaning towards a shove, b/c (1) I still think trips may call, (2) 87, the turned straight, might have been aiming to c/r the turn and will have to call, and (3) I don't see evidence in opponents' actions of a set.
I think mostly we get folds when we shove, but I think we catch A6 and 87 more often than we see 99. QQ seems very rare (no RR pf), and 66 is only 1 combo.
But of course, I may have missed something.
