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River bet sizing River bet sizing

07-03-2014 , 09:58 PM
I'm just gonna describe the action, I'll incorporate reads into the narrative.

Villain1 - Regular player, generally ABC but can get kooky when he is drunk, which is all the time, including now. ANd he is hammered. I mean super hammered. Side note: This guy is permanently denied alcohol service in the poker room. He will occasionally run out to his car, and come back extra wobbly. He's UTG and raises to $6

Villain2 - UTG +1 Just bad enough to be a fish, but just barely. Talks like he knows about the game, but almost all of his stories are from tournament hands. His play is pretty ABC. Moved for his chips just as the hand started. He was gonna raise to $12 regardless of what UTG did, and so he raises to $12.

Hero UTG+2 - Just a really handsome guy trying to grind out a bankroll. Calls and has T8

Villain 3 on the button also calls. early/mid 20's. Playing ok, not out of line. he has a big stack, and must have got it while I was away from the table. He has a sweatshirt on his lap, new, still in plastic, that he didn't have when I sat down earlier. They only give those away for royal flushes.

Blinds fold, villain 1 calls, there's about $50 in the pot. Here's the flop

J94

Villain 1 checks, Villain2 bets $16, Hero calls, Villain 3 calls, Villain 1 folds. The turn

Pot $98 - J949

Villain 2 checks, hero bets $40, villain 3 calls, villain 2 folds. The river

Pot $178 - J9495

How much to bet? There's about $280 eff behind. Villain covers. Are we bet/shoving or bet/folding?
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07-03-2014 , 10:21 PM
I would probably bet/fold for ~$80-100. Your villains are described as "not out of line" and "pretty ABC", so bet/call or bet/shove is a mistake (hopeful for a multiway spaz or worse diamonds if we call). We should try to bring out a crying call by a Jx or possible overpair/pocket pair, which I think my sizing maximizes from.
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07-03-2014 , 10:28 PM
raise flop.

bet bigger on turn.

As played, b/f 90.
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07-03-2014 , 10:33 PM
Fold pre obv.

Check river and let V be his value hands and his bluffs. I don't like the idea of getting raised off this hand.
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07-03-2014 , 10:34 PM
don't hate a check as played.
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07-03-2014 , 10:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ozmosis313
don't hate a check as played.
I Think you might be right buddy.
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07-03-2014 , 10:45 PM
If you're going to play this passive you need to fold PF. Not raising big OTF is a mistake. As played a 1/3 river value B/F seems best.
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07-03-2014 , 11:01 PM
I don't understand not betting the flop when we're the favorite against virtually any hand. Then on the turn when our equity is very much worse we decide to bet.

As played probably bet-fold whatever you think he'll call with TPTK.

If you decide to check and Villain checks behind and you outdrew him, on average you're going to lose money playing this hand this way. You're going to hit the river 1/3rd of the time, and you put more than one-third of the money into the pot.
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07-03-2014 , 11:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
I don't understand not betting the flop when we're the favorite against virtually any hand. Then on the turn when our equity is very much worse we decide to bet..
I think it's better to keep the villains' hand ranges wide and just call. The other two villain's haven't acted and if I raise, their continuing range shrinks considerably. Also, if they raise, it's a decent result for me.
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07-03-2014 , 11:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
I think it's better to keep the villains' hand ranges wide and just call. The other two villain's haven't acted and if I raise, their continuing range shrinks considerably. Also, if they raise, it's a decent result for me.


You have ten high on the flop...not exactly the end of the world if you raise and everyone folds. Not that you're trying to chase them away, but you should be trying to get your money in when you have such good equity on the flop.
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07-03-2014 , 11:35 PM
Wide hand ranges don't pay off our flush or straight when we hit either
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07-03-2014 , 11:40 PM
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Originally Posted by myshadow


You have ten high on the flop...not exactly the end of the world if you raise and everyone folds.
This wasnt' really the point of the post, but I'm willing to de-rail cause it's my own thread.

Two ways to win 1) Show down the best hand 2)Everyone else folds. This is 1/2 no limit where #1 wins WAAAAAY more often than #2. I have a hand that is more than 50% likely to make something with HUGE showdown value and I have four opponents in the hand. I want as much money going in as possible, so when I hit, which is often, I win alot. This is a hand I want to play for stacks, not pots.

Also, if I raise, and get called, how much do I hate life on this turn? Or almost any turn that is a brick for me? How often am I stuck check/folding? Or bet folding into trip 9's?
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07-03-2014 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
Wide hand ranges don't pay off our flush or straight when we hit either
97, QJ, KQ, and other T8's are all hands we can keep in by calling but risk losing if we raise. All of those hands pay us if we hit, except for the T8's, against which we would have a ~20% free roll on teh river.
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07-03-2014 , 11:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
This wasnt' really the point of the post, but I'm willing to de-rail cause it's my own thread.

Two ways to win 1) Show down the best hand 2)Everyone else folds. This is 1/2 no limit where #1 wins WAAAAAY more often than #2. I have a hand that is more than 50% likely to make something with HUGE showdown value and I have four opponents in the hand. I want as much money going in as possible, so when I hit, which is often, I win alot. This is a hand I want to play for stacks, not pots.

Also, if I raise, and get called, how much do I hate life on this turn? Or almost any turn that is a brick for me? How often am I stuck check/folding? Or bet folding into trip 9's?
The point of this post is only relevant because you misplayed the flop. Yes, you want to play for stacks, which is exactly why you try to get more in on the flop, when you have a ton of equity.

You are MORE likely to fold out worse hands on the river after the flush (and in this case, paired board) has hit. If you sit around and wait for your huge hand, he's going to fold more hands that he would have called if you had raised on the flop, making it less likely that you get stacks.

When you see that flop, you're fine with getting stacks in right then and there.

When you raise the flop, you will be LESS scared of that NINE on the turn, because you likely bet out middle pair (who would limp along with a 16 dollar bet for an 82 dollar pot).
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07-04-2014 , 12:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
This wasnt' really the point of the post, but I'm willing to de-rail cause it's my own thread.

Two ways to win 1) Show down the best hand 2)Everyone else folds. This is 1/2 no limit where #1 wins WAAAAAY more often than #2. I have a hand that is more than 50% likely to make something with HUGE showdown value and I have four opponents in the hand. I want as much money going in as possible, so when I hit, which is often, I win alot. This is a hand I want to play for stacks, not pots.

Also, if I raise, and get called, how much do I hate life on this turn? Or almost any turn that is a brick for me? How often am I stuck check/folding? Or bet folding into trip 9's?
We have enough hand on the flop to play for stacks here. Even against JJ+, we are a favorite and we're getting a decent dead money overlay. Our draw stands up on its own against a made hand GII range. Fold equity is just a bonus. The idea of "keeping ranges wide" to win a lot when you hit is flawed. What if we widen our opponents' ranges enough to keep a KT in and we end up getting coolered on an offsuit Q turn? This is also NLHE, it's not like we "get paid big" by wide ranges. This is more of a LHE concept, where we don't want to face weak/dead ranges with 2 bets cold.

We fold out V3 and gain position much more frequently when we raise the flop. We probably just check this turn, admittedly looking a bit weak, but a lot of people will just think you have a scared Jx. Brick turns end up possibly the same. We have a "draw" but it's discrete enough and strong enough to make this play. Or else we just never raise draws ever
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07-04-2014 , 12:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by myshadow
The point of this post is only relevant because you misplayed the flop. Yes, you want to play for stacks, which is exactly why you try to get more in on the flop, when you have a ton of equity.

You are MORE likely to fold out worse hands on the river after the flush (and in this case, paired board) has hit. If you sit around and wait for your huge hand, he's going to fold more hands that he would have called if you had raised on the flop, making it less likely that you get stacks.

When you see that flop, you're fine with getting stacks in right then and there.

When you raise the flop, you will be LESS scared of that NINE on the turn, because you likely bet out middle pair (who would limp along with a 16 dollar bet for an 82 dollar pot).
In addition to this, any hand that folds to your raise on the flop, is probably never going to pay you off for stacks on the river anyway.
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07-04-2014 , 12:08 AM
I think there is some results oriented thinking in some of the posts in this thread. The plan was never to play this hand against the big stack at the table. I expected him to simply fold to the $16 a hell of a lot of the time. The plan was to play for stacks against Villain 2. Villain 1 is practically a non factor. It just so happened that i got entangled with villain 3 this particular time.

With position on villain 2, and his smaller stack size, I think calling is fine. Villain 2 had about $200, so I can bet 55-70 on the turn and profitably call a shove, or I can bet that much and fold cheaply when the river bricks.
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07-04-2014 , 12:12 AM
What big stack? No stack size differences mentioned in OP. No plan to play against the big stack? Isn't "having a plan" for different possible courses of action an important part of playing poker?
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07-04-2014 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
I think there is some results oriented thinking in some of the posts in this thread. The plan was never to play this hand against the big stack at the table. I expected him to simply fold to the $16 a hell of a lot of the time. The plan was to play for stacks against Villain 2. Villain 1 is practically a non factor. It just so happened that i got entangled with villain 3 this particular time.

With position on villain 2, and his smaller stack size, I think calling is fine. Villain 2 had about $200, so I can bet 55-70 on the turn and profitably call a shove, or I can bet that much and fold cheaply when the river bricks.
The plan SHOULD be, once you see that flop, to play for stacks with whomever wants to come along, and be totally fine with taking down a pot with ten high, if nobody is strong enough to follow you along.
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07-04-2014 , 12:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thamel18
What big stack? No stack size differences mentioned in OP. No plan to play against the big stack? Isn't "having a plan" for different possible courses of action an important part of playing poker?
WHAT??

First, his stack was mentioned in the OP. And second....it bears repeating....


WHAT???????

I completely do not understand your comment about having a plan for multiple possibilities. Of my three opponnents, one of them was FAR more likely to put chips in the pot than the others. So I made my decision based on that. I can only make ONE action. If you know a way I can call Villain 2, but raise Villain 3 with the same action, please share.

And having a plan for multiple possibilities......ok. If Villain 1 or 3 raises, I can get stacks in. We've already established, that's a perfectly fine result for me. If Villain 1 and 3 fold....then I can play my hand against villain 2 as I've already described in my last post. If I end up three way, like I was, then I'm simply more likely to get paid off when I hit.

And LOL worrying about KT. If KT calls the flop, and the $40 on the turn, and hits, then congratulations. Can you say MUBS?
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07-04-2014 , 12:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
WHAT??

First, his stack was mentioned in the OP. And second....it bears repeating....


WHAT???????

I completely do not understand your comment about having a plan for multiple possibilities. Of my three opponnents, one of them was FAR more likely to put chips in the pot than the others. So I made my decision based on that. I can only make ONE action. If you know a way I can call Villain 2, but raise Villain 3 with the same action, please share.
Our point is you don't want to call villain 2, you want to raise him.

Quote:
And having a plan for multiple possibilities......ok. If Villain 1 or 3 raises, I can get stacks in. We've already established, that's a perfectly fine result for me. If Villain 1 and 3 fold....then I can play my hand against villain 2 as I've already described in my last post. If I end up three way, like I was, then I'm simply more likely to get paid off when I hit.

And LOL worrying about KT. If KT calls the flop, and the $40 on the turn, and hits, then congratulations. Can you say MUBS?
People will be more willing to stick money into the pot BEFORE the scare cards come. Way easier to get stacks from two pair/set/TPTK/TPGK/SD type hands if you get the money in before they are scared away by a flush card hitting the board.
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07-04-2014 , 12:41 AM
Ok, I'm putting this thread back on the rails now. If everyone agrees that $75 is an ok bet size, albeit a little low, then I'm happy with how I played the hand.
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07-04-2014 , 12:46 AM
Hey, fool. I was pretty explicit about the KT that they would be making a PROPER overcall and stacking us on an OFFSUIT Q TURN. Not a river after calling $40. Reading comprehension FTW though. You mentioned 97, QJ, KQ, and other T8s that you want to keep in. Isn't it just the same thing I mentioned? You're hoping to hit a 3 (or less) outer (offsuit Q or 7 depending) and making more money from your opponents' widened range. Or freerolling a hand that you could have played out at some point with aggression. You can't have it both ways. Widening your opponents' ranges is a risk reward proposition, and I was mentioning a part of the risk. You could also maybe fold out a higher flush draw with a raise or further aggression. 9x could have blasted us out of the pot on the turn.

It took you 2+ hours to mention V2's stack size. That's pertinent information. WHATTTTTTTTTT??????

I'm not saying to call V2 or raise V3. I'm saying to raise the flop in the situation you are in right now with our equity edge. We don't mind taking the pot down, because if we do, we weren't likely getting paid off on our draw. We don't mind getting all in due to our equity against our opponents' GII range. Your "plan" is alright but I generally don't feel like trusting LLSNL villains to raise for me.

The idea of "more likely getting paid off" by bringing in wider (and thus weaker) ranges is just mega flawed. If you're bringing in a QJ/97, then you're also bringing in a bunch of Jx and other 9x too, stuff that won't pay off (but we still make a little money against). These are hands that are peeling a 1/3 pot flop bet. They don't just somehow much more frequently pay off $50 & $100 turn & river bets when you hit, except in those 3 outer situations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
Ok, I'm putting this thread back on the rails now. If everyone agrees that $75 is an ok bet size, albeit a little low, then I'm happy with how I played the hand.
Yes, WP.
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07-04-2014 , 12:55 AM
I was thinking 115. If the villain sucks, don't leave 35 bucks out there.

And yes you are always folding to a raise. Always.
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07-04-2014 , 01:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpexDome
Ok, I'm putting this thread back on the rails now. If everyone agrees that $75 is an ok bet size, albeit a little low, then I'm happy with how I played the hand.
75 is fine, if smallish.

What did villain do?

ETA: and the reason this thread went "off the rails" is because there was a much more important issue with the flop. The river was rather trivial.
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