Join Date: Dec 2022
Posts: 1,689
I don't love flop bet. We have a pretty weak kicker. If you do bet, I would go smaller, like 1/4 pot. This does charge flush draws and gets us some value from weaker hands. But if you are betting every T, your range is going to look really weak when you check the flop.
I don't like turn bet. It is small, so it basically says we have exactly what we have, a weak ten. KcXc is now ahead of us, and we still lose to hands like AT, KT. We charge flush draws and get value from JT and T9, but I think I am more happy to make river decisions if turn checks through or if we check call turn.
What is the non-club on the flop? If if is the 4 and 4x of clubs is possible, then it makes me want to fold river a touch more, but that is likely only Ac4c and 5c4c. He is saying he has a king or better. Non-6c is a lot better.
He needs about 3 bluffs for every 7 value hands here. He has a lot more potential missed clubs here than hands that beat us. The question is how often does he actually bluff those hands and how often does he give up? If he is the bluffing type, isn't there a good chance you would have been raised by river if he had a club draw?
How high in your range are you here? I am guessing you are betting KxXc and KT larger on turn and also betting on the river. Would you bet AT the same on flop and turn, then check river? Would you be checking JT and T9 a lot on either flop or turn? Would you have a lot of bluffs giving up on river? If you use bigger sizing on flop with AT, that is problematic, because you are probably at the top of your range now then. Also, you shouldn't have too many bluffs with small size on flop and turn multiway, but the more you have, the higher in your range you are.
I think it is actually pretty close here. I think your hand is a lot better than AcTx, but if you have all the AT in your range here and very few bluffs, seems right on the cusp.
If you're always folding river here, I think you do run the chance of getting run over some. If people know you are always going to go small bet, small bet, check, fold, you really run the risk of getting bluffed on the river a lot. And people are going to realize they can overfold to you when you do make bigger bets and fire the river because all of your weaker hands bet small and give up.
In the moment I would try to do what makes sense. Call if you think he's bluffing and fold if you think he has it. But at some point I think you want to think about the bigger picture where you can lose value over time if some of the lines you take are always weak and folding to aggression.
