Right spot for thin value?
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 160
villain is nothing short of a massive fish. He will probably fold two or three hands per hour unless you're making a big open or 3-bet. Villain is running very good tonight he has stacked hero twice when he shipped the turn with a gut shot and busted my trips. We also had aces vs kings AIPF and he spiked a king.
Villain has around £450 and hero has just bought in for the max of £300
Blinds are £.5/1
Villain is UTG who bets out for £5
It folds to hero who looks down at QQ who 3-bets to £17, folds to villain who calls.
Flop is J J 8 rainbow
Villain donk bets £20
It's not unlike him to lead out with trips should he have it. He thinks it disguises his hand. I don't put a J in his range and he doesn't usually open pre.
I call, thinking a raise will fold worse hands but keep better hands in
Turn is a 3
Villain bets £20 at this point I think I'm good, I call hoping he barrels the river.
River is a K no possible flush
Villain checks.
Throughout the hand I had him ranged to 22 - TT if this is true he will call a small river bet.
Can I thin value bet this river?
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 937
I was gonna say if you don't range him to ever having a jack, you might be able to click back the flop. Even though you stated "it keeps better hands in", he never has better. He sounds like a massive fish indeed, so he might not fold.
As played, I think you could bet pretty small here. No bigger than $40 (even though it's a little more than 1/3 pot), and probably still get called.
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 165
Yeah I'm betting here for sure. I get why you played the hand the way you did, but call call check is not the line im trying to take with queens against this V.
I would bet 1/2-2/3 pot hoping to get called by worse, and expecting to see K rag about 100% of the time.
Also folding to a check raise unless you have seen him do it with air.
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 225
This spot is far from "thin."
Thin spots are where we could beat barely beat 50% of combos in someone's range.
Hero could easily beat more than 70% without better reads.