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Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed?

04-26-2011 , 12:32 AM
2/5.

Hero is relatively new to table. I started with $400 and am down to about $320.

Main villain has at least $900. He hasn't played much since I joined the table, but it's probably the 3rd orbit.

Pre-flop: Hero limps UTG with 44 MP calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises to $25, everyone calls except the SB. I was later to learn that both BB and button loved to see flop, so villain knows this as well.

Flop ($105): 652. BB checks. Without hitting a set, this seems about the best I can hope for. I bet $65. MP raises to $225. Button and BB fold.

All in or fold?
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 12:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheClubber
2/5.

Hero is relatively new to table. I started with $400 and am down to about $320.

Main villain has at least $900. He hasn't played much since I joined the table, but it's probably the 3rd orbit.

Pre-flop: Hero limps UTG with 44 MP calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB raises to $25, everyone calls except the SB. I was later to learn that both BB and button loved to see flop, so villain knows this as well.

Flop ($105): 652. BB checks. Without hitting a set, this seems about the best I can hope for. I bet $65. MP raises to $225. Button and BB fold.

All in or fold?
If you think he's doing this with all Axhh combos and 87hh as well as sets, top 2, and the nuts, this is - shockingly - a call (you've got about 30% equity and you're getting 3:1 on your call). Without the hearts it's not.

In real time I can't imagine even considering stacking off with 44 here with your reads (i.e. none).
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 06:11 AM
It's so marginal even if you add in all those combos. Fold. C/back this flop a lot or bet smaller to fold out over-cards (you're obviously not folding out a flush-draw, 78, or 6x+ with a bigger bet anyways). $45/fold IMO.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 07:24 AM
Spew. Calling would be more spew.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 07:42 AM
This is weird. Have you considered that villain has an over pair. I don't mind betting out as a lot of villains will fold if they have AK or AQ. As soon as he raises my cards would hit the muck so fast his chips wouldn't even get to the middle. You're not committed at all. You still have over $200 in your stack.

I'd wait to have a much larger stack before trying this move. I've seen it used very effectively in the past. In fact I'm looking for opportunities in my own game to bring it in more. It can be used to steal Large multi way pots on dry looking boards. But if villain plays back at you its time to give it up.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 08:10 AM
Not sure why you bet the flop, but this is a very clear fold. If you're lucky, you are a small underdog to two overs and hearts when the money goes in, but the fact that MP raised you (instead of flatting to induce more people into the pot) it's his least likely holding.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 08:22 AM
Thanks for the opinions. I figured I was most likely up against something like 77-TT, but there may have been enough flush and straight draws in his range to make it a call. If I give him an optimistic range of 22, 44-TT, AhTh-AhKh, KhQh,87s,65s, stove says I have 30%

Board: 6h 5h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.477% 30.18% 00.29% 12251 119.50 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 69.523% 69.23% 00.29% 28100 119.50 { TT-66, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, 87s, 65s }

In the end I folded. I didn't feel bad about the fold, especially since the longer I played the tighter villain seemed.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 08:44 AM
Yep, pretty easy fold after a bad bet on flop
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote
04-26-2011 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheClubber
Thanks for the opinions. I figured I was most likely up against something like 77-TT, but there may have been enough flush and straight draws in his range to make it a call. If I give him an optimistic range of 22, 44-TT, AhTh-AhKh, KhQh,87s,65s, stove says I have 30%

Board: 6h 5h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.477% 30.18% 00.29% 12251 119.50 { 4d4h }
Hand 1: 69.523% 69.23% 00.29% 28100 119.50 { TT-66, 22, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, 87s, 65s }

In the end I folded. I didn't feel bad about the fold, especially since the longer I played the tighter villain seemed.
I would probably take AKh, AQh, and maybe AJh out of his range since he limped preflop unless you have a specific read that he limps those hands. I would also take out 87s. From my experience, players who are passive preflop limping generally aren't spazzing out with OESDs in multiway pots.
Regretting flop bet after raise. Am I committed? Quote

      
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