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Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good?

12-30-2016 , 04:10 AM
Just wanted to see what you thought. I thought about this hand for a little bit today.

9 handed @ Caesars Palace playing 1/2NL

I'm in BB with about $360

Fold, Limp, Limp, MP Raises to 12, fold , fold, fold, SB Calls, and I call with 46cc. Limpers fold. (Pot $40)

Thoughts on Villains
V1 (MP Raiser) (Stack -$~300) - Seems solid, but nitty post flop. Never saw him get past the flop unless he had something. Got pretty upset a couple of hands ago when V2 showed a bluff even though it was on a small pot. I was in one pot with him. I was on the button. I had AKss. He raised to 12 with 4 callers, and I popped it to $60 and it folded out.

V2 (SB Caller) (Stack -$250-$275) - Just joined the table maybe 30 minute ago, lost half his stack on the first hand where he probably had a pair like JJ or TT on a board that had undercards with a pair on the board. Proceeded to win a big pot OTT when he showed 29o on a 29x board. Then proceeded to show hands in showdown or on his own like 79s (He raised UTG+2), K8s, 38o, etc. (Including a 2 street bluff with 38o on an all limped in pot OTT against V1)

Flop comes AK5cc
SB Checks
I Check
V1 Bets $25 (Pot $65)
SB Calls $25 (Pot $90)
I Call $25

Thoughts on calling - I think SB is calling with a draw to something. I'm going to rule out AA/KK/55 for him. I think he raises this guy with 55 because he may tilt the guy he just bluffed. He may have a higher fd than me, maybe a gutterball. Who knows.

I think V1 is betting for the sake of C-betting his perceived range. If he hit it he hit it. I don't like raising here because he doesn't seem like a player where trapping is in his skill set. If I raise him to $100 or $105 or whatever I would raise him, if he had a hand like AK AQ or sets, hes going to get it in, even in position. He won't let me get a free card and it puts me in a terrible spot if I raise him.

Pot $115.
Turn 5d
SB Checks
I bet $75

Reasoning - SB checking twice indicates to me that whatever he was drawing to hasn't hit yet because typically he likes to lead out. He hasn't played any hands with me and if I lead out he has to perceive this as strong.

With noone folding to his flop cbet, I think V1 has to think his hand is no good here. I think my bet comes across as really strong. I can't see him shipping anything other than the nuts here. Even with a hand like AK or an Ace, I think he would call in this situation and re-evaluate OTR. Knowing this, plus FE, plus binking a club OTR made me think this was a solid play.

Last edited by Garick; 12-30-2016 at 04:52 AM. Reason: removed results
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 04:43 AM
I don't hate calling just because of SB, I guess. But generally this is a fold.

No point in raising flop as this smacks V1s range and I don't think you get folds.

Turn is stupid. You rep nothing. I'm calling everything here. You rep 5x. You shouldn't have any 5x here because you'd be folding flop or raise with 55 and A5.

So you're polarized into a bluff.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 04:52 AM
Welcome to the forum, OP. Please don't include results, as it biases people's advice. I edited them out.

I know that you don't want to hear it, but fold pre. You're not deep enough and there aren't enough callers to play a suited gapper OOP for a 6xBB raise.

AP to flop, c/c is fine. You're getting a good price and have some IOs against MP's likely TPGK. Just be aware that you also have some RIOs against SB's FD range.

Turn is really iffy, IMO. SB just doesn't seem the type to like to fold, and this flop hit the hell out of MP's range. Thinking that he's just blindly c-betting an AKx flop into two players is very optimistic. While there are some 5s in your perceived range, I never expect him to fold any ace, especially after he's likely a bit tilted about folding the best hand to SB earlier.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 05:12 AM
Fold pre. Your hand is garbage, you're out of position and facing a 6x raise. Setting money on fire.

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Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 06:05 AM
noted to all comments.

How many callers before you consider a call here?
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 06:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iFoldedKKPreOnce
noted to all comments.

How many callers before you consider a call here?
maybe 5-6 ways unless guys are real spewy. If you want to play 64s suited in this spot you need to put in a 3b.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 06:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rm81
maybe 5-6 ways unless guys are real spewy. If you want to play 64s suited in this spot you need to put in a 3b.
If guys are spewy, then what happens? In theory do you need less callers?

These are hands and spots that I typically do have issues with. If it was heads up, it is a fold, especially against the initial raiser. However, I figured with with the weak limpers, and with me being in position against the aggro on the table, it was a decent call.

Any information on this whole spot is great...from anyone.

Thanks

edit: In addition, the mod posted (I thank you much for your opinion and alterations to my thread to provide more unbiased input) that we were not deep enough for this kind of call. At how many BB's per stack would you consider this to be a call considering the action given preflop?
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 06:41 AM
You're deep enough to call if you're good enough, but only worth calling if our SB is indeed a big spew.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 09:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iFoldedKKPreOnce
At how many BB's per stack would you consider this to be a call considering the action given preflop?
To be honest, you're asking the wrong questions. I suggest reading the COTM at the top of the forum page to get an idea of what is involved in making a decision to play something like 64s out of position.

If it seems like a tl,dr thread, then you should just fold 64s in all situations.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote
12-30-2016 , 09:52 AM
The only thought I would add to the previous posts is the importance of position when facing an opponent who has a fold button. You are targeting a nitty player who is ip on a board that hammered his pre flop raising range.

Look for economic spots, maybe 3-4 bbs raises with 150-200 bbs effective, where you have position on an opponent who can fold to post flop pressure. Coupling equity, like an OESD or FD, with well-timed aggression can be a profitable play.
Is this reasoning behind this semi-bluff good? Quote

      
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