Please explain what I would need in the way of correct direct and implied odds to call preflop?

Given that the pot was a live $10 straddle and 5 players are in the hand for $10 and that the additional raise is only $20 more there is an almost 100% chance they all call.

So, I will get roughly 5:1 in direct odds and then will have roughly 35:1 in implied odds.

There is roughly a 20% chance I will flop a draw (flush and or straight and or pair and or two pair and or trips all combined...) and if I flop these draws combined there is roughly a 40% chance I will hit either of these draws by river.

20% x 40% = 8%

Combining the two probabilities gives me an 8% chance of success. So, I need roughly 11.5:1 in a combination of direct and implied odds for this to be profitable. Assuming that she will only stack off in this case 50% of the time, then I need 23:1 in combined odds for this to be profitable.

Since I'm getting roughly 35:1 in combined odds (basically capped out since V covers me) calling the preflop raise is insanely profitable and +EV. Especially if I'm able to control the betting post flop which I was...

Please explain where/how the above logic is wrong if you still think the preflop call was atrocious.

Agree with most of this, u just need to account for the times when u make the 2nd best hand either 2pair, trips or a flush.. Specially it's multiway

Sent from my SCH-I535 using 2+2 Forums

True,

which was where my flop c/r comes from. I'm completely prepared to ditch the hand since as a baby flush i'm vulnerable to being overflushed. However, the upside is that none of the other villains could stack me.

So I can minimize the odds of me getting stacked + the fact that I'm controlling the action post flop so I'm setting my own price...

Not to say you aren't right, you are, we have to account for our losses which is where the odds come from. We need to make sure we have more odds than we need to make up for this. Also we can minimize the downside by taking control of the hand, setting our own price, and being cognizant of the conditions in which we get stacked, namely if other villains come along for the ride...

How is it only 20 to call? You're bb which means it's $25 to call with the straddler still having the option (of course this is live, so the number of times they are going to 3bet is like 2%)

Not to mention the fact that you said everyone else has $200-400 so great, you're getting 8-16 to 1 with a junky suited hand OOP vs the rest of the field (minus 1 player).

Not to mention the fact that you're getting reverse implied odds out the wazoo when the flop comes 88x/55x/XhXhxx and any flop that comes 85x and someone has a bigger 2 pair/straight/set.

No, you're right, fantastic call preflop.

Also, you weren't able to control the pot size postflop. You only seem to be able to think you were because you played vs a terrible player who play their hand terribly.

The only problem/question I'm having with this logig is the following: I don't really buy the fact that stronger made hands and ESPECIALLY stronger draws are going to fold or reship. Infact in my games in low limits especially if someone has a nutdraw and perceives no fold equity you will get cold called alot. I would imagine even sets may occasionally do this if they expect you or her to barrell away at most turns putting them on a drawing hand. So if your coldcalled and the same turn comes in how are you going to proceed in the hand? How does the check/raise save money? Are you just going to check/fold even when you hit the flush, try your best to pot control or what if some random coldcalls the checkraise?

I also like the fact that if villain has KK, dgiharris never posts this story

What are you implying? KK would be worthy of being posted in a big hand but easy laydown thread?

Made a marginal river shove and got called by worse

Apparently 85 is teh nuts lately. $1/2 game this past weekend. Villain is in MP and limping almost every pot, but been getting lucky and has about $400. I cover. I've been playing TAG with a little LAG mixed in against a couple college-aged internet kids that are a bit scared money.

Hero is in BB with 85

Villain calls, CO calls, SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop($8) 556
SB checks, Hero bets $5, Villain calls, CO folds, SB folds

Turn($18) Q
Hero bets $10, Villain calls

River($38) 8
Hero bets $30, Villain raises to $130, Hero goes all-in for about $250 more, Villain snap-calls



Analysis

I actually spent a good bit of time deciding whether or not to reraise on the river. Against a good player I'm never getting called by worse (maybe 65??), but fish make bad calls. Also, I'm pretty sure he would've let me know on the flop or turn if he had a boat. I'm still not 100% sure if raising is correct here, but luckily it worked out.

Shoving is definitely correct.

Board: 5h 5s 6c Qd 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 79.167% 79.17% 00.00% 19 0.00 { 8c5d }
Hand 1: 20.833% 20.83% 00.00% 5 0.00 { 88, 66, Q5s, 97s, 65s, 97o, 65o }

I never said or meant to infer that stronger draws were folding.

If other villains called my c/r I'm more or less done with hand on turn. Yes, I'm check/folding turn if other villains called my c/r flop since the only hands in their range that are check/calling my c/r on flop are sets and flush draws.

My check raise wasn't to "save money". I listed my 3 reasons for c/r in the other post.

I stated in that post that 30% of the time in this spot I value own myself...

And the point of the post was V's AA in a 6-handed flop... her stacking off in that spot was terribad...

If you want to look at that one hand and say, "Man, dgiharris is terribad..." fair enough. I listed my reasons and math for playing that hand, if you disagree, so be it.. If you are folding 85s in this position vs this villain when you know she has a big hand and you both are sitting close to 200bb deep... then you are leaving all sorts of money on the table...

I evolved my game to take advantage and exploit my terribad villains. I acknowledge that these lines I take are super exploitable but I only take them vs villains who I know aren't going to exploit me.

My last post on the hand. Didn't mean to make the focus my play, but rather how villain just stacked off for 180bb with AA on a paired flush board vs the other big stack at the table...

30% is far too high. Or is it?

I'll agree that a winning player should be value-owning themselves from time to time, 30% sounds way too high..

what are you talking about?? As long as it's less than 50% it is profitable?

dg, why only 1/2 pot on the turn? She seems like the kind of player who if she is calling 200 she is calling pot and your hand is vulnerable to another heart eithor killing your hand and/or killing your action.

I felt that the overwhelming percentage of the time the A was in her range. So, I wanted to fade another heart before I stack off an additional 80bb. At the time, I didn't think she was terribad enough to stack off without the A but after she made the call, I realized that I made a mistake on turn and should have shoved turned.

I want to talk about this. When you increase the amount that you value bet and / or stack off vs opponents who stack off light you not only increase your winrate but you also develop an image that is nearly IMPOSSIBLE for your other villains to read.

I had made similar plays and steals and squeezes at a different 2/5nl table. And then I raise $25 with AK UTG, 3 villains call.

Flop($100) K 8 3
I lead out $75, one villain calls, rest fold

Turn($250) K
I bet $200, villain tank calls

River(650) K
I go all-in for $400, V tank calls and shows TT

Why did he stack off? Well, he had seen me bluff and squeeze and go for super thin value bets...

So my point is there are other benefits to being willing to go for thin value besides the specific hand in question. It augments and enhances our ability to extract value in other hands when we are monster and or take lines that villains cannot easily discern...

you don't think villain ever calls with 5x?

Seriously, 2p+ is the nuts at llsnl. People are bad at judging relative hand strength.

Even if villain is only calling A5, that one possibility is enough to turn that hand from a question into a fist-pump shove. And if he has K5, or J5, or...

You're only 80bb deep.

I know there is a school of thought that states if a hand is straddled then the game magically becomes double the big blind, so 2/5 becomes 5/10...

In limit games that is true. When you straddle or kill in limit it doubles the betting for each round. But that doesn't hold for no-limit because in no-limit you can bet whatever you want whenever you want. The $10 straddle merely induces more action and more calls, but the mindset of all players involved is still the mindset of a 2/5nl game, as evident by Villain's raise to $30 which is a standard raise at 2/5nl. Its not like for the straddle the typical rec-fish thinks, "Okay, there is a straddle so now we are playing 5/10nl and my stack is now effectively half of what it was before..."

Or, if you are hell bent on thinking of it in terms of 80bb, then villain only raised 3bb and I'm 0.5bb vested meaning I have 34:1 in implied odds and thus all my logical points still hold...

Also, are you saying that I should have folded pre because I wasn't deep enough for the situation to be profitable based on implied and direct odds???

I'm 100% sure all the other villains are also calling. As you say, I'm at 80bb and only need to call 2.5bb and I'm going to get 5:1 in direct odds with 77.5bb behind and around 30:1 in implied odds So I'd like your opinion on if you feel this situation as described is profitable or not???

I have to agree that the 85s call is meh but its hard to justify that its a profitable call. Obv you won a huge hand but u have to call $25 in a bloated pot preflop because of the straddle so effectively your playing a 5/10 game for this hand so like meshanti said your really only 80bbs deep, and the other 3 players beside the fish are only 20-40bbs deep and prob aren't nearly as horrible as the fish.

85s is a 50% hand. If u were heads up or 3 handed with your read on the fish i would say ok but 5 handed it just seemed that u got super lucky to flop a flush draw and no one else had a flush draw or King, villain played her AA super bad, you hit a 18% gin card for u on the turn, and you were lucky villain didn't have the 33% chance she had the Ah or KK for some redraws on the river.

Like I posted above, the bold is simply not a true statement for no-limit. A straddle in no-limit doesn't magically convert the 2/5nl game to 5/10nl because you can bet whatever you want at any time.

If a villain open raises to $30, does that automatically transform the game to 15/30nl? Serious question no snark. If a villain open raises to $40, does that automatically transform the game to 20/40nl and all the players think, "Man, I was at 100bb but now that the opening bet was $40 I am now at 25bb..."

No. Villains still play the game as is based on their hand strength, position, etc.

Same thing for a straddle imo. The straddle just merely induces more action and encourages the occasional squeeze or ego related steal. It doesn't magically transform the game into 5/10nl.

I guess we will agree to disagree...

R u really trying to say that when someone straddles it only induces more actions? Yes there are some horribad players who never adjust but in games i play and someone straddles and there's 2 limpers a normal raise would be to $25 or $30 in 2/5 but most players i play with will bump it up to $45 or $50. You must be playing in a game full of fish who have no concept of pot odds, stack to pot ratio, and how to play straddles.

The point of it is that u weren't just playing heads up against villain when u called. Assuming the other players weren't nearly as bad as the villain and the added fact that they had only $200 to $400 to start hand and the fact that the pot is going to be $150 after u call and their stack to pot ratio is going to be 1.5 to 2.5/1 u don't really have that much room to outplay people so your going to have to flop good. 85s just doesn't flop good that many times to justify putting in $25 preflop when u have the worst position postflop.

When u state your getting 34/1 implied odds your acting like your playing heads up against villain but your in a 5 way multiway pot. Like i said your call would be fine heads up or prob even 3handed but 4 or 5 handed and its just spew, but whatever.

Really?

??

What the hell is this supposed to prove? This is just another hand where villains play terrible in a spot where you're never bluffing.

A straddle definitely changes the game from a 2/5 to a 5/10.

Like if every hand was straddled in a 2/5 game, you're not really playing 2/5, you're playing a 5/10nl game with an extra $2 blind

villain didn't adjust your opening raise size to the straddle so why does hero have to adjust his caling range if she is opening for the same size as no straddle.

I don't agree with how dgi played his hand, but he is right about a 2/5 game with straddle is still a 2/5 game.
People don't view bets in terms of numbers of bb, but in actual monetary value. A $200 bet in 2/5 + staddle is not a 20bb bet....its still $200......almost half of their initial buy-in.
If you expect people to adjust like you do and mentally half their stack-size when straddled, then you will be in for a nasty surprise.