what if total station fish floated with a 3 though? Then I have to know that he overvalues TOP pair also before calling (dgiharris says the same basic thing)

Another thing that helps is that most fish go for the c/r if they had a 3 on the river because c/r'ing the nuts is what fish do. Especially when we've been betting each street.

+1 to the part dgi bolded. It's easy to put passive fish on a hand they believe is strong, the hard part is figuring out what their range of perceived strong hands is. I've seen total rocks get as heart-pumping excited over TPTK as another player would with the total nuts.

In most cases, though, 2p+ is the "nuts". Why do you think people limp trash like 93o? No way they're ever folding when they finally get that miracle board and hit bottom two. Same with baby flushes -- they might be scared to bet a 5-high flush but they didn't limp for $2 pre to fold it on the river once they finally hit.

$1/2 nl. Effective stacks of importance approximately 150bb.

UTG limps. UTG is a huge nit. UTG's limp here is incredibly strong, but does include things like KQs, AQo, etc. It also includes AA, KK, and other powerhouses.

Three other limpers. I check the bb with Q9o.

The flop is Q99r. I lead out for pot. Only UTG calls. His range at this point consists of QQ-AA, AQ, probably A9s, mayyyyyybe K9s-98s if somebody tickled his butthole or he's tilting. That's it. There are lots and lots of opponents like this, it's a tough spot for a tighwad to have much else.

The turn is a K. Not the greatest card for extracting money, but I'm still going to try and get max value from AA which nitty nitbox will not be able to give up. I bet pot again, UTG thinks and minraises me. The game is over. I flopped a full house, but my hand is done. Nitty nitbox never, ever has JT here. I mean, maybe once in a blue moon, but he's scared money, the board is paired, he just doesn't have it. The absolute value of my hand is incredible, the relative value is junk. I'm calling hoping for a chop and fading a river bet too.

I don't think this hand is particularly hard because it's just so easy to read villain's hand here. However, I do think we are often blinded by the absolute value of our hand.

I think the biggest thing a lot of LLSNL players need to work on (or maybe its just me) is in these spots being able to understand what sort of hands the particular villain in question will perceive to be the nuts. When we get raised or shoved on (especially on turns and rivers) certain fish will show up with surprising hands. I played a hand recently where I flopped 2nd nut flush and got in against a baby flush (standard) and bottom 2 pair (wtf). The board doesn't matter to level 1 players obviously so being able to disinguish between level 1 and level 2 players will make a huge difference to my/our winrates

Here's a fun one from my home game - I raise AA and get minraised by the biggest rock I know. His range is exactly 6 combos of KK and one combo of AA. That's it. He will also fold KK if I 4bet (not kidding, he's a BIG rock). I flat.

Board is all low. I donk into him, flop and turn, to control the bet sizing. He thinks I flopped a set (he says "what have you got over there?") and flats both times.

River is a king. I check. If I happen to be wrong about his range and he has QQ, he will check back. He bets half pot. I fold, he shows KK.

Pretty much this. You need to be able to think rationally at the table. ie. I lose to 1 combination of 33 and maybe 3 combinations of JJ and maybe 3 combinations of QQ and maybe 3 combinations of A3s and maybe a few other combos of 3xs (does he 3-bet JJ,QQ vs UTG open ever?) and beat many many combinations of Qx and missed draws. On this runout i snap it off, its pretty gross if the 3 doesnt repeat but the board runs out good for us. Obviously we can avoid being stacked if a spade drops and probably avoid being stacked on an 89or T. So sick if it runs out 2,5 or something and he takes the same line

I am a long time lurker first time poster, but I must say to DGI, your analysis is always spot on. I 1) didn't put villian on HIS percieved nuts (didn't properly range) and 2) ignored the maths, always bad.

I don't think its as easy a call as some are saying, a speech from a card dead passive quiet fish who donk river bets = nuts a large majority of the time. I agree even more so you'd see the c/r here with nuts, but still a sign of fish strength nonetheless.

But, as dgi said, we need to know what villian could think nuts are here, and AQ, QJ, KQ, etc, are looking pretty solid (from his terribad perspective). Looking at my 2:1, I should have made a sigh call, and scooped up the pot.

Thanks for the insight guys

Please explain the obvious to me. So you think a chop is your best possible outcome?

Well you made it easy for me

$1/2 Hero has been running the table over or about 45 minutes. Raising about 75% of hands for the past 3-4 orbits 6-7 handed. No one is pushing back.

Villain is a weak passive player who will donk with a good hand and fold with nothing. We are $530 deep.

One limp to hero who makes it $15 with Qc8c. Villain calls in SB. Folds around.

Fop: Qs 6s 3s ($35)
V checks. Hero bets $25. V calls.

Turn: Qs 6s 3s 8s ($85).
V donk shoves for ~$500. Hero says, "Well you made it easy for me," and folds.

Villain shows KsTh for SECOND nuts. He says he just wanted to win the pot now. This was probably the worst poker play I've ever seen, and I have seen a LOT of bad poker. He risked 250BB when he was only ever getting called by the one hand that beats him and never getting called by anything worse. Ever.

I debated on which donkalicious thread to put this in, but since I folded it went to Donk2.

There needs to be some sort of LLSNL law, that overbet from LP fish = always 2nd or 3rd nuts (because they just slowplay the nuts ldo).

but that's a discussion for another thread.

Question for you guys.

Utg makes it 10@5/5 gets 5 calls I make it 105 in SB BB calls mp calls and button goes all in for 165. Can I raise or does his all in have to be for 200 minimum?

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This seems like a horrible decision by you.

FH over FH is sooooo rare that it's not even worth considering. If you are correct, this situation will cost you pennies in the long run.

People are human, and if this guy's play deviates, in this hand, a tiny bit from what you expected, you made a huge mistake.

Check flop. Trap nit. Get it in?

Dgi (and anyone else who wants to discuss this), what is our minimum threshold in regards to pot odds and equity?

In other words, my question is:

On one side of the equation (at this level 1/2 & 2/5) we are taught that these level 0-1 players only look at the strength of their own hand and base all their decisons on that... but on the other hand where this villain (in Avaritia's post) overvalued his hand terribly, we see he doesn't even know the true strength of his hand...so where do we draw the line of when the math comes in our decision wise vs. the fish is playing his hand face-up?

I'm speaking of the passive fish who all of a sudden go nuts with a raise, such as the villain in the above hand. I realize a lot of this comes with experience but is there a "prototype theory" regarding this level with this kind of fish? (sorry to derail this)

I witnessed this hand last night which blew my mind...
Playing 1/3 in a limped in pot and bb checks flop is 8jq rainbow the biggest nit at the table checks his sb the bb bets 10 and the sb calls heads up. Turn is a q the nit ch again and the bb bets 15 the nit calls again. River is a 2 and the nit open jams for 290! Then he proceeds to pat the guy on the shoulder and give em the ol' "send me off to dinner I'm hungry" speech lol. Anyway the guy tanks and says "I have to call I flopped the nuts". He turns over 910 and of course the nit flips over jq....guess he wasn't that hungry. Moral of the story, the send me to dinner speech is always the nuts.

Getting Zeebo'd

Five way limped pot to flop of A88r. Checks to standard passive opponent in CO who bets 10, SB x/r to 30, all fold to CO who calls. Turn brick. SB bets 40, CO tank calls. River A. SB checks, CO shoves for 100. SB crying calls. CO shows his AK, and SB shows a single 8, lamenting his bad luck.

Please don't post kk pre folds in this thread. This is supposed to be about easy lay downs and there will always be debate about kk pre.

Fair enough.

Well, there's no Ace

1/2 NL

Three limps to SB who raises 12. Two limpers (UTG + HJ) call. All players involved are loose passive. Flop 992r. SB bets 15, UTG raises to 30, HJ jams for 200, SB snap shoves for 250 total with a smug "haha gotcha now" grin, UTG covers and snap calls. SB fastrolls KK, UTG fist pump opens 96s and HJ casually shows T9s. Turn and river brick out, not resulting in a chop.

UTG looks kind of confused as the monster main pot gets shipped to HJ. SB strikes up a conversation with an empathetic neighbor regarding the nature of big pairs.

Lol

I'm not sure there is a conflict here.

The problem I think you are having is understanding the thought process of the typical rec-fish vs the board.

Many rec-fish consider TPGK, TPTK, overpairs, and baby flushes on a flush board the nuts... They consider it almost the same strength as having the actual nuts...

So its a matter of ranging your villain and when you range them, the range of hands that they have that "can" shove in Avaritia's example is going to be wide enough that our AA has enough equity that given the size of the pot we can make the call.

In order to understand what I'm saying, lets look at some ranges

Lets look at a range of KQ, AQ, KK, JJ, QQ, QJ

Now lets tighten the range a bit more
Lets tighten it more

and tighten it more

So as you can see, its all about ranging our villain and using our observation of villain and our understanding of villain's mindset to compose the range. Once you range him, then you apply the equity to the situation-- namely the bet vs the pot odds, and if you have the necessary equity you make the call and if you don't you fold...

This is why the AA is a call. The question we need to ask ourselves in spots such as that is NOT if V has a full house but rather "could" villain make this play with KK, AQ, KQ, QJ... And as you see by the above ranges, if the answer is yes, then we have the equity we need to make the call. And since fish just don't understand poker and/or are level 1 players that don't care what we have but only care what they have, then we can put those hands in their range and make the call.

Its just important to understand that its the correct call even when the fish turns over the nuts...

Now, if you've noticed V having those hands in this spot and NOT over playing them, that is different. Basically, its all about ranging and equity so there is no conflict...

2/5: Hero has $500. AKo in first orbit, CO.

One limper, hero raises to $30, SB calls(covers, older gent), limper calls.

Flop($90): AJ6r. Check, check, hero bets $60, SB calls, fold.

Turn($210): Q. Check, check.

River 2. SB bets $150, hero...

Easy fold?

Played one yesterday where I raise with QT to $12, passive rec player on my left calls, SB calls. Flop KQT, SB checks, I bet $25, rec player calls, SB folds. Turn another T giving me a boat, I bet $55 to set up an easy river shove since he had about $130 left, he calls again. River K, I throw up in my mouth, check, he bets $100, I fold. Final board KQTTK, no flush draw possible at any point. Folding a boat for $100 really sucks, but there's pretty much no way he doesn't have a K there...

I have been running the table over, typical 1/2 game with a bunch of bad regs... Table got really deep... I 3bet some guy with QQ lp, villain is visibly pissed at my aggression calls from sb, original raiser folds... Heads up to the flop really deep
Flop J73r
V checks, hero bets 40 into 50, v tank calls
Turn v checks, hero bets 90, v snap shoves 400 more... And starts talking to the guy to his right about how I pissed hin off and how I made him fold AK pre earlier in a 3bet situation as well... I lol folded

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2/5

MP ($2000) is mid 30's white fish that loves to chase any sort of draw & plays passively postflop until he hits then bets big...also habitually opens with middling hands for $20 and big hands $25-30.

CO ($1000) is young, loose fishy asian that seems to overvalue TP+.

Hero is BTN (covers both) playing TAG as usual and has played with MP a couple long sessions.

Folds to MP who opens $20
CO calls
Hero holds QT, contemplates 3betting but calls

Flop is QJ9
MP checks
CO bets $40
Hero raises to $125
MP calls, CO calls

Turn K
MP bets $300
CO shoves
Hero folds

I felt pretty comfortable that MP is only doing this with A10 the way he plays... he'd have definitely led out with anything else on the flop. I felt CO was much more likely to hold a random 10x than A10 but couldn't totally discount him having it as well.