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Rate my play 2/5. Rate my play 2/5.

03-05-2012 , 10:29 AM
V1, mid-age korean, no idea what he's doing, limping KK behind 4 limpers etc. $600

V2, late 20 early 30 white guy, ABC tight. Have not seen him bluff, never see him even semi-bluff rasing. ALWAYS show down with good hands. $800

Hero image is good, play tight, use position, been taking down many small pots by just betting flop, covers both.

So V1 limp UTG, I'm at MP with KK, I raise to 30, V2 calls on BTN, V1 calls.
Flop 1063r, V1 chk, I bet 45, V2 BTN called V1 fold. (At this point, I thought his range is A10suited, J10suited, KJ, QJ, JJ, QQ, 77, 88,99 or Sets)
Turn J still rainbow I believe. I bet $55. He calls.
Riverd a brick like 3, I bet $65, he tank... calls.

The reason I bet so small on turn and river is because if he had 10, that's all he's gonna pay me off, if he had a monster (set, 2pairs like j10), he gonna raise me and i will fold (that was my plan).

Any comments?
Rate my play 2/5. Quote
03-05-2012 , 10:57 AM
I like the idea of your bet sizing against some opponents. The guy you describe sounds like one.
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03-05-2012 , 11:01 AM
Bet more on the flop $60 - $75. Then your small bets on the turn and river are larger.

River is a good card for you because it counterfeits a possible JT.
Rate my play 2/5. Quote
03-05-2012 , 11:08 AM
Ran some ranges and this is what I get:
If his preflop range is: QQ-22,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KJs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s

And he is calling the flop with any pair or better (in reality he might have bet or checkraised some twopair+ hands and he might have folded 55-22)

Then on the turn his range looks like this:
straight: 0
set: 12 (3 combos of JJ, TT, 66, and 33)
two pair: 2 (2 combos of JTs)
overpair: 6 (6 combos of QQ)
top pair: 0
middle pair: 9 (3 combos of QTs, T9s, ATs)
weak pair: 36 (6 combos of 9, 8, 7, 5, 4, and 2)
ace high: 0
no made hand: 0
OESD: 0
gutshot: 0
overcards: 0

So 14 combos have you beat and 51 combos you beat.

Of those 51 combos, only QQ will pay off large bets on the turn and river.

The others would really only beat the AK/AQ part of your range so they are basically bluff catchers. His 22 is basically as good as his QTs.

On the river, if he calls the turn with everything except 55, 44, and 22 (Just because I think some people a lot of people fold those hands to two streets of betting regardless of the logic behind it).
Then his range on the river is:
>=quads: 1
full house: 9
straight: 0
3 of a kind: 0
overpair: 6
good two pair: 2
top pair: 0
bad two pair: 0
middle pair: 9
weak pair: 18
ace high: 0
no made hand: 0

So you are beating 35 combos and losing to 9.
Of those 35, he's probably calling a 2/3 psb with QQ (6 combos) and JT (2 combos), calling a small bet (1/5 psb) with AT, QT, T9 (9 combos) and 99-77 (18 combos), and raising only his fullhouse+.

Convert those to %'s and you'll see his
Fullhouse and better = 22% of his range
JT and QQ = 18% of his range.
QQ and worse = 78% of his range.

So if you bet $65 and get called by QQ or worse then your EV is $65 * .78 = $50.7
If you bet $200 and only get called by QQ and JT then your EV is $200 * .18 = $36

So fudge those numbers whichever way if you think he'll sometimes call a large bet with AT or if you think he has fewer 99-77 in his range etc. The above should at least gives you a baseline to go with. I've at least given you one reasonable (imo) scenario where your bet sizing is good.

Last edited by Eihli; 03-05-2012 at 11:20 AM.
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