Stacks are roughly 2500 effective....villan is in his 30s - just got moved to the table....hes opening a good amount of pots, never seem him before so definitely not a regular.....the 10 hands he has been here I haven't done anything outside maybe a raise pre and taking the pot down. Onto the hand!

it folds to villan in MP who opens to 35....folds around to me in SB and I make it 110 with QJo - vs a good reg I'd prob shy away from the 3b OOP with these stacks, but felt I could pick this up pre or on the flop a high % of the time. He calls.

Flop (240) T33 rainbow - I lead 150, he calls fairly quickly

Turn (540) T336 two spades - I lead for 375, he tanks for a little bit, cringes a little, then calls

River (1290) T336Kc - I bet 800

My thoughts - I felt betting the turn was mandatory if Im going to bet the flop - itll be tough for mid pairs to call a 2nd barrel, and they need to expect at some frequency a third barrel on the river. When he tanks and cringes a couple times on the turn, I felt it was genuine - had it been way overdone I'd prob just give up, but it looked like a natural reaction. River is a good card for me in terms of villan being a recreational player - AK got there and I think its the best overcard to see in this spot.

Thoughts?

trying to bluff a unknown especially one that you think may be bad is not a great idea.

if hes thinking, he should wonder why you apparently couldnt care less that an overcard hits the board, since you were betting.
i mean, would you really bet again on the turn with ak? he has something there like 55-99, T9 or similar like top pair weak kicker, so you would be bluffing and therefor can easily be bluffing on the river, odds are his hand is still good.

against a unknown player i wouldnt get too fancy (esp oop) and just try to play my value hands straight forward. i would definitely bet a Q or J on the river.

IT is fine quite often if ur lucky enough that the villain tends to call turn fold river.

I would overbet the river though vs this villain. I dont need balance with him and his curiosity most likely wont overcome him for that price. 800 i think he calls too often for my liking.

Vs a tag reg thinker who knows i am too, i like it fine in fact i would bet a little less, maybe 690 vs them.

My only issue with the hand is 3betting a hard hand to play OOP--when I 3bet bluff OOP, it is usually with hands that nearly play themselves, like Axs and 22, ones that we are likely to be ahead if we hit and are easy to get away from. On Axx, nobody rarely gets tricky without a hand better than AQ, and a low pocket pair is self-explanatory, you either hit or miss and get a shot to bluff at it. If you hit your Q or J, you are not sure if you are good and lack the ability to control the pot.

After that, I like your action, any villain worth a damn should fold JJ to barrel #2. And the 3rd barrel is mandatory after #2 with the K-ball falling.

The reason why I do not fire that 2nd barrel without overcard assistance is because most villains are not good enough to fold JJ to that, despite it being the winning play against most heroes.

My guess is that villain hero called river with JJ and felt awesome, but I would also not be surprised if the K allowed the river shot to work.

This.

this 100%, and since a fair amount of villains don't assign ranges but utilize a complex form of wishful thinking ("it looked like AK" type bs) and intuition for hand ranges I'd expand that to like 77-JJ, T9, and other strange Tx combos.

because of that, and as played, I think the overbet on river is nice as someone mentioned above, but even a PSB might be sufficient.

I am not sure if sizing would factor in to a villain's river call decision. If it looks too big, it looks "more bluffy" in the wishful minds of some droolers.

I think 800 should sufficiently fold out anything that the villain intends to muck to 3 barrels.

The line looks OK, but I guess my question is why even do this at all? Seems like you are risking a lot of $$ hoping that villain is good enough to fold AT+ on that board...not sure that is a really high EV play.

I tend to make these kinds of moves when I am bored or card dead and it seems that much more often than not I am just lighting $$ on fire than actually balancing/making a strong play that is long term +EV for me.

if you feel compelled to bluff this hand, the river should be bigger. maybe $1100ish. see if he can find a call with 1 pair for 1100.

i find this is a common mistake i make when i try to make river bets look valuey. they call more often.

I can't imagine that trying to bluff an unknown is ever profitable on anything but the scariest of scary boards ip.

well like I said in OP, I felt villan was a weak player and I could pick this up most of the time preflop or OTF. Once the flop comes out, I feel betting is profitable, provided I bet the turn. Most of the time I'll double barrel here and give up on the river, but the concern in his face was obvious that he felt the turn was a tough spot, so once the K on the river comes, I feel its the perfect card to bet - had he not looked pained on the turn and the river was a blank I'd probably give up.....I mean this only has to work over 40% of the time to be profitable - I feel with my reads it is. Its definitely a high variance spot, but the financial swings wont affect me and I'm willing to take very marginal spots if theyre profitable. Theres also some meta game value in terms of how he'll play me in future hands - either hes going to try to avoid me, or he'll never give me respect, both of which will probably increase the margin of his errors.

you're going to get looked up a ton with lots of garbage hands.

C+

basic bluffing ITT

ill take it - atleast im passing

I like the 3 bet. Obviously, I would rather have information about how he reacts to 3 bets, etc, but with the info you have, it's fine in my mind.

In a live game, you're going to get so many calls, and then folds after you Cbet, it's ultimately profitable pre flop and on the flop.

The double barrel is mandatory, and I think it's plus EV, because he has to give you respect, and his range isn't super strong after calling this flop texture. Any old pair is going to call one bet.

Once he tanks the turn, and you believe him, the 3rd barrel is pretty obvious. If you hadn't pulled the trigger there, I would then say you butchered this hand, lol.

Sizing question on the river bet is meh. It's really hard to tell how someone will react to different sizings in this spot because people have so much screwy logic and notions about these things in the moment. Even good players base their bet sizing reads on limited anecdotal information most of the time. Most likely, his mind was foggy anyway, and he was praying you checked. So your size, which was somewhere in the middle, not too small, not too big, is probably perfect in this situation against an unknown.

I like every street, although folding pre flop is also totally fine.

If your going to empty the clip, THEN EMPTY THE GOD DAMN CLIP!

.

Seems unnecessary, and one orbit is not a good sample imo. Having said that, if he's opening too much and your bluff juices are flowing, flat pre and get freaky with deep stacks and a wide range post.

3bet pre is questionable, but whatever. rest of hand seems fine/standardish, but agree that a bigger river bet is probably best.

Reraise a little bigger pre to $115-$120.

Flop c-bet is fine.

Turn second barrel is spew against an unknown because turn is a good card for a non-thinking player to bluff-catch Tx, 77-JJ against "the obvious AK." If Villain were a solid thinking player, I wouldn't mind the second barrel, but against an unknown live player, I think the turn is a check-fold.

As played, the river third barrel is mandatory on one of the best scare cards in the deck, but I would size it a little bigger, around $850-$950.