Backstory:

I just sat down at the table. Within 1 orbit these 2 hands go down

1) UTG bad whale opens $20. I fold Ts7s. Villain calls HU
Flop ($45) As8sJd. UTG bets $40. Villain calls
Turn ($125) 2s. UTG checks. Villain shoves $300 ish. UTG folds. Villain shows 6s5h.

2) Limped pot 5 ways.
Flop ($25) 8c7h3s. MP bets $25. Same villain raises to $75. He takes it down and shows JhTh.

So thats the read we have. The guy is aggro but does he think poker is all about who has the biggest balls? Or is he a top pro who knows when to float, bluff scare cards...ect. Hes a 40 year old WG drinking beer at 1PM on Thur if that helps.


OTTH....Villain straddles UTG. 2 calls. I make it $60 OTB with AdQd. Blinds fold. Villain shoves for $460 and it folds back to me. I cover.

Rate this from 1-10

1 is a snap fold
10 is a snap call
5 is.....I dont know what to do, maybe Ill flip a coin.

10

2 hands is not a ton of history and I generally wouldn't advocate going nutty. Also, he showed both hands which makes me wonder if he was trying to set up some kind of image for the table so that he could make this kind of move.

Even given all the above, I think this is a "theoretical" 8+ on your scale as he seems capable of doing this with all kinds of random hands. Frankly, the only hand that really scares me is AK.

In the moment though? I probably puke fold and hope he shows. A third move in a row like that would make me very comfortable calling off the next time and it seems like he is rooted for a bit so you might get another shot.

I'm going to go with 3.5 (lean fold). Yes your 2 history hands point to an aggro, but in hand 1, Whale showed weakness, and in hand 2 V had a reasonable draw (2 over cards, gutshot straight, and backdoor flush) and it was early in the hand for relatively small money. In your hand you project some strength with a larger raise (although it is OTB), but more important to me is that V knows he's advertised his bluffs/semi-bluffs, and it just seems like he's probably doing this to get more marginal calls on bigger pots when his opponents range him light.

8

46 bigs effective against a likely aggro donk drinking at 1 PM and we want to fold a top 5% hand? We are really going to buy that he is showing his bluffs to set up this situation to trap us? Until I've got an indication that this guy isn't just an alpha donk, I'm going to go ahead and assume he's an alpha donk.

It's a snap call. I might pretend to think about it for 30 seconds so this guy thinks his bet had a chance of working, but I'm never folding here unless this is the last $400 I have to my name.

In HH1 he just passively called preflop and then floated a flop in position HU to steal on the turn. He didn't get crazy (i.e. there is no reason for the huge overbet, imo) until he was certain he could steal the pot.

In HH2 he also passively got into a pot preflop, flopped some equity (overs + gutshot), and put someone to the test. Not exactly insane.

He's shown both of those hands to no doubt cultivate a gambooley image that he hopes will get paid off.

So with him playing extremely aggressively preflop in this hand (something he has yet to do), I'm a little worried. So I'd be leaning towards the fold end of the scale.

Having said that, the only hands we're doing horrendous against are AA/KK/QQ/AK, and while this play with AK makes sense, would he actually do this with QQ+ (or would he raise smaller looking for action). Which leans me back more to the call side of things.

I'm guessing you have an OMC vibe about you based on appearance? So he's likely putting you on a big hand that ain't gonna fold? I mean, he's not exactly thinking you have AQ here, which is probably like the bottom of your range? Which leans towards he simply has a big hand and wants to get it in against you now before you fold to scare cards.

But I'm also extremely MUBSy and conservative, so no surprise that is my take.

ETA: Also just realized this was 2/5 and not 1/3. $460 stacks don't fly in too easy at my 1/3 NL game, but I'm guessing it is a lot different in a straddled 2/5 game.

GweaksauceG

10-snap call. If he have us beat after we seing those hands been shown down and what kind of spazz he is capable of, nice hand sir.

Clear snap call, I rate your play a 10. This guy is not a pro, he is a whale and is seeing if anyone wants to gamble. I have only run into this player type a couple of times since I have been playing. They make for some really good games, but also increase variance in a solid players game considerably.

350

Maybe I'm reading the OP wrong, but nothing in the HHs strike me as maniac, and I've played with lots of maniacs where this would be a fistpump snap call.

GperhapsI'mreadingthingswrongG

8

I think based off description it is actually a 10 in that we are usually ahead here, but I don't like to play high variance hands with players that I think are highly exploitable/beatable. We're hoping we're dominating him when he turns up with Ax, but he could be doing this with a suited connector or middle PP or even something dumb like a Kx hand. In those cases, we're not crushing him. So if we just believe we are better than him, then we can pick a better spot.

That said, I'm stubborn and not of the mind to surrender the pot with what I believe is the best hand, so I call.

10.

Less than 100bb (less than 50bb w/ straddle), agro straddler shoves. Never folding AQs.

10. Not sure why this is a post.

What on earth are you reading the first history hand as?

10. Folding a top 5% hand against this guy would be criminal.

He passively calls a flop preflop in position against a bad player, floats the expected cbet, and then sets up a trivial steal spot on a scary turn. Admittedly, his sizing is wack on the turn (no reason to bet so much, imo). But there's nothing truly maniacal about this play.

I've played with maniacs who raise / GII with ATC preflop, or shove their stack blind. This ain't what this guy is doing as far as I can tell.

GcluelessNLnoobG

He hadn't gone bonkers pre-flop from what we have seen so far. There is usually a difference between what goof-balls will shove with pre and what they will make a move with post. I think he's going to be stronger than just a maniac-shove here. I am expecting 22+, AJ+, maybe some KQ. Might even be able to remove the bottom few baby pairs, but who knows. I don't mind the variance, so I might still call. I'm giving this a 6.5.

I'm going to do the unthinkable on 2+2 and instead of dig my heels to support my initial response, I'll amend upon further thinking and hearing some comments.

Lean call (6ish).

Even though I think V knows he has advertised some bluffs and is showing up with the stronger part of his range here, as others have pointed out we are still well in the upper part of our OTB PFR range (I assume) and V could be doing this with AJ/AT/KQ/22-JJ.

The key for me when I rethought this is that I think there are some hands V has that we dominate. The possibility of V doing this with hands we crush greatly tilts the math toward a call, as long as we are rolled and emotionally prepared for the variance ride.

If anyone is folding this hand to this player in this situation with this effective stack, they should be flatting or folding pre.

.

8/10 pretty happy to call here

Biggest risk would be some sort of muscle injury from throwing my chips into the middle.

I'd fold wait for a better spot to get his chips. AQs isn't the nut and is still a gamble all in pre to any hand not aced.

Whale seems like a great target pick spot sometime else. 22 has you at 50%. It's a gamble you don't have the nuts or the second nuts or anything like that.

I'm just saying it is still a gamble for extra $400 dollars with $60 invested. Even if he has 52o.

We're playing 46 straddles against super aggro guy, and we've already thrown in 6 with AQs. This is a super easy yawn-call and grab the wallet cause 53s is gonna suck out. Only in the forums is this close, cause then it's AK way more often than IRL. However, Mike is balanced in his poasts, so just call here and get ready to say nice hand.