^^ the 9T HH, if that’s somehow enough to identify who he is, informs that he’s an aggressive bastard comfortable making large bets. If that general pattern holds, it’s someone we’re happy to play against but that doesn’t make him the easiest to play against. I just mean that 9T hand is actually indicative of one of those guys who is a T20 whale that can run over 2-5 games. Obviously we don’t know that yet, but the best defense against this type of player is simply to allow blast offs and construct strong ranges to play accordingly. Expanding again, I don’t see the T9 hand as a reason for me to shove river at all, or any earlier street w AK, rather, just calling well and not getting ool might print, until we identify a better path.

Not joking that these kinds of guys are the types that felt the table a lot more than we’d like to admit. I’m glad he’s in the game, but it’s not a joke when I say he COULD be much better than anyone in the game - we just don’t know yet, but he ain’t a whale or passive fish yet, no way.

First, thanks for all the input on this hand. My point of view at the time about the river (which I still question, that's why I posted this) was that I wanted to construct a range for this V and decide how best to play against it. I gave him:

1 combo AA
1 combo A3s
1 combo A7s
1 combo A8s
3 combos 88
8 combos AQ
8 combos AJ
4 combos A10 (cut the combos in half for frequency considerations)

My thought was that we never want to be just calling against 75% of that range when we can lay it such a good price to call when we jam. If he folds any portion of it (I didn't get the feeling he would) its irrelevant. Sure we value own ourselves against 25% of it but I thought it was an interesting idea to raise here considering how much of that range we beat.

Would you adjust the range of hands he gets here with?

I suppose if that’s his range and he bet calls all of it then the math works out. I think you need to include AK and all the offsuit Ax combos too at least sometimes if you really want to capture a better snapshot of his value range. He might have 42o here too and other air hands, it’s hard to know, so keeping his air in until the river is why I want to call, call… I just think the river raise is thin and likely just a bit too exploitative in the moment, of course, he also snap called I think you said w A7, so he might be tank calling AT too. Not the end of the world to shove river now when I think more about it, but it’s still a very large bet in a spot where our range is very narrow strong and he has to have a lot of bet calls for it to work - don’t mean to be back and forth, I just think the most important part is getting to the riv as a caller on this board-our range-this player.

Just some things I would consider here:

(crap, sorry for the wall of text, I really did try to keep this small, lol)

- it's always hard to range accurately, but if he's raising JTo OOP I think we have to also include 33 (1), some 77 (let's say 1 of the 3 combos since I'm assuming he doesn't always bet this flop with that), and have to probably throw in some A8o/A7o/A3o (even just 1 extra combo each to account for some of his laggyness); so now your better versus worse range shrinks to 12:20; admittedly, on the other side there may be some bluffing combos that we've missed (but it seems unlikely given this action / runout?)

- folding any portion of his range is extremely relevant to whether a river raise makes sense; for example, if you just take the 12 better combos versus 20 worse combos, assuming he calls the raise with his better combos 100% of the time (fair? if not, tweak accordingly per combo as you see fit), that would mean he would have to call the raise with his worse combos 60% of the time for the bet to be breakeven; so if he only calls the raise with his worse combos 50% of the time, a raise is losing money; but this gets *much* more dicey when you factor in the next point...

- one of the biggest mistakes I see on this forum when it comes to counting combos is people forgetting to weight each combo; I think you've done some attempt at weighting by only including half the ATo combos getting to this point this way; however, I think you've way overestimated the amount of times AQ/AJ gets here like this; in LLSNL, you will face some opponents who almost never bet TP on the river like this (especially in big pots) due to MUBSYness, "the pot is big enough", not wanting to start exposing the rest of their large stack, etc.; now admittedly this might not be that guy, but he's still not betting his TP hands at the same frequency as his nuttish hands; my guess is that even estimating a 50/50 frequency probably gets us closer to reality (sometimes he bets and sometimes he checks, based on whether he is playing his A game versus C game, tilting or not, running well today or not, etc.); so now those 20 combos of worse hands that arrive at this point actually gets narrowed to 12, and so now you're at 12 better versus 12 worse, and need him to pay off the river raise with his worse hands at the same frequency he does his better hands (i.e. ~100%, which is extremely unlikely) just for the raise to be breakeven

- course, like you, I'm just grabbing some of these ranges, percentage of times he gets to the river like this with parts of those ranges, and the percentage of times he calls a raise with parts of those ranges, all out of my ass (it's admittedly a difficult thing to do); but I think when you take a slightly more realistic approach (although some may argue "overly conservative") the river raise doesn't make that much sense... IMO

- same sorta reasoning starts applying to whether we should even call the river bet; against this guy, we probably have to call; but depending on how your overall pool plays (again, is this how everyone in your game plays TP on a drawless board that starts very multiway?), what the BI structure is (i.e. a $225 river bet risking the same behind is a massive bet in a game with a $300 max BI, but a fairly inconsequential one if you're playing in a unlimited BI game where everyone is BIing for $1000+), etc., those worse combos plummet dramatically given the very simple fact he 4barrelled on the river (and also bet large on the turn) to begin with

GcluelesscomboweightingnoobG